Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs Week 16 Pick – NFL December 27

Atlanta (4-10) at Kansas City (13-1)


Kansas City owns a 6-3 lead in this AFC-NFC series, but Atlanta has won two of the last three. The Chiefs can clinch the AFC West for the fifth season in a row, which is the longest streak in franchise history. Kansas City has won nine games in a row since their only loss which was to the Las Vegas Raiders back in October.

Vs. The Spread:

The Chiefs are 6-7-1 ATS while Atlanta pulls in at 6-8 vs. the number. The total has gone UNDER in four of the Falcons’ last five games. They are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games against the AFC and Atlanta is 13-4 SU in their last 17 games vs. the AFC West. The Chiefs have fallen off to 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games and the total has gone OVER in seven of Kansas City’s last ten games vs. NFC opponents.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Atlanta Falcons +10½ (-110) +430 O 54 (-115)
Kansas City Chiefs -10½ (-110) -550 U 54 (-105)

Last Week:

The Falcons blew a 17-0 halftime lead when Tampa Bay scored on it’s first five drives of the second half and rolled up 302 yards in the second 30 minutes. Matt Ryan threw for 349 yards and three touchdowns as Calvin Ridley caught 10 balls for 163 yards.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes welcomed Drew Brees and the Saints to the new breed of NFL quarterbacks in the Chiefs’ 32-29 win in New Orleans. Mahomes continually extended plays his agility and ability to adapt different styles of passes to the scenarios that he encountered with New Orleans’ speed and quickness on defense. The Chiefs’ defense stymied Brees, who came back from 11 cracked ribs and a collapsed lung, as it held him to 234 yards as many of those came after Kansas City went up 29-15 in the early fourth quarter on a 12-yard touchdown run from Le’Veon Bell.

When the Falcons Have the Ball:

Atlanta Falcons LogoMatt Ryan continues to post solid numbers with a receiving corp that includes Julio Jones, who is in and out of the lineup with injuries, Clavin Ridley, and Russell Gage. Ridley has been hot as he is looking for his third game in a row with a touchdown and fourth in a row with 100 yards receiving. Gage has had his best season of his career in both receptions (59) and yardage (672).

Like Jones, tanning back Todd Gurley, II, has struggled with injuries all season as he has only one game where he has rushed for over 100 yards.

Kansas City’s defense has been sneaky good as it has gotten better as the season has unfolded. It starts with a pass defense that has allowed only 230 yards through the air pregame while the secondary has secured 16 picks. Chris Jones and Frank Clark have stabilized a pass rush which has been productive with 22 sacks. Safety Tyrann Mathieu has an interception in three of the last four games.

When the Chiefs Have the Ball:

Kansas City Chiefs LogoPatrick Mahomes is becoming a legend just three years into his NFL career as Kansas City’s offense seems to have hit an even higher level this season. He averages 7.1 yards per scramble attempt which is near the top of the NFL.

Tyreek Hill (83-1,211) is the definition of an uncoverable matchup at wide receiver with his 17 total touchdowns and then Travis Kelce (98-1,318-10) has had his best season as he looks fo his six game in his last eight in going over 100 receiving yards. Clyde Edwards-Hillaire is out for the rest of the regular season with a high ankle sprain so the Chiefs are looking to nail down this top seed and the subsequent bye to be able to give him another week of rest. Le’Veon Bell should be able to step in and have a solid game against the struggling Falcons defense.

The Falcons’ pass defense (287 ypg.) is 31st in the NFL and it faces a daunting task against Mahomes and company as it has only nine picks on the season. Middle linebacker Foyesade Oluokun has been the catalyst on defense with a team-high 104 tackles and four forced fumbles.

NFL Betting Predictions

Winner: Kansas City (-10½) 35, Atlanta 17
Over-Under: Take UNDER 54

The Bets
Chiefs -10½
Sub Categories:
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.