Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Pick – NFL Week 7

The Atlanta Falcons take the short trip south to Florida for a meeting with the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins are back on home soil after a business trip overseas against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

They don’t get a bye week after last week. That’s uncommon among teams that go to London. Typically a bye follows to get accustomed to the time change. You might think that the NFL hates the Dolphins, but they actually didn’t want a bye and requested it for another week.

The Falcons had a London game against the New York Jets two weeks back. They’re coming off a game overseas, but had a bye last week. While the Dolphins lost their overseas trip 23-20 in overtime versus a winless Jacksonville squad, the Falcons took advantage of their bad team.

They won by a touchdown against the Jets, 27-20. Considering the matchups didn’t look like much on paper, those weren’t bad games. They both came down to the 4th quarter, and that’s about the only thing you can hope for between losing teams.

The Falcons are going into Week 7 with a record of 2-3 following wins against the Jets and New York Giants. That’s not the most impressive lineup of wins. Their losses consists of the Eagles, 32-6, Buccaneers, 48-25, and Washington, 34-30.

The Buccaneers are understandable, but they didn’t show up with any fight out of the gate in Week 1 versus the Phillies. I was on the Phillies in that one, so I liked to see that. Without Calvin Ridley against the Jets, he’s back after taking some time off from football.

Ridley will give the offense a lift, but Russell Gage returning is important as well. He’s only played in two games this season and hobbled. Gage hasn’t been on the field since September 19 against the Buccaneers. At full speed, Gage can be a contributor as a secondary option.

The Dolphins are reeling at 1-5 and are fending off rumors that they’re trading for Deshaun Watson. Head coach Brian Flores has made it clear that Tua Tagovailoa is his quarterback. They need some life after winning their fifth straight in London. Head below for our free Falcons vs. Dolphins pick on October 24, 2021.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-105) -135 Over 47.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins +2.5 (-115) +115 Under 47.5 (-110)
Team Data Atlanta Falcons Miami Dolphins
Overall Record 2-3 1-5
ATS Record 2-3-0 2-4-0
Away/Home Record 1-1 0-2
ATS Away/Home 1-1-0 0-2-0
Points Per Game 21 16.5
Points Against Per Game 29.6 29.5
Passing Yards Per Game 254.6 218.5
Rushing Yards Per Game 91 71.5

Falcons vs. Dolphins Prediction:

The return of Calvin Ridley will make headlines for this matchup, but getting Russell Gage back in the offense could prove to be a difference maker versus the Dolphins. Gage had a career year last season with 786 yards and 4 touchdowns in his third campaign in the NFL.

He’s been limited in 2021, but is off the injury report and all reports have him close to full health going into Week 7. Gage and Ridley on the field together against a pedestrian Miami defense should be a big asset. The Dolphins are 30th in the NFL with 417.8 yards allowed per game.

They’ve been particularly porous against the pass, so Gage and Ridley should be able to find room to operate. The Dolphins have been gouged for 292.5 yards per game through the air. It’s added up to 29.5 points against per game on the board. The offense is leaving too many points on the field as well.

Tua has passed for 544 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on 64.1% completions. Rumors are swirling around Watson joining the Dolphins, so pressure is mounting on Tua to put up. He’s fine but the Dolphins swung and missed with Justin Herbert on the board. I had the Dolphins taking Herbert, so don’t blame me Dolphins’ fans.


Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Trends:

Falcons

  • 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 games versus a team with a losing record
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a losing record at home
  • 6-2-1 ATS in their previous nine games versus the Dolphins
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus the AFC
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games as a favorite on the road

Dolphins

  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games
  • 1-7 overall in their previous eight games versus the NFC South
  • 12-5 ATS in their previous 17 games after a loss
  • 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games as an underdog
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games as an underdog at home

How are the Dolphins going to respond after having to play this game on no rest? They played just on Sunday in London, and then had to fly back and get accustomed to time in the US.

The Falcons have had two weeks to adjust to the time change. While you can’t only look at this angle for a reason to back the Falcons, it can’t help the Dolphins much.

Atlanta has been limiting yardage this season, but they’re giving up points. They have to tighten up in the red zone and stop teams. Atlanta are 13th in the league with 352.6 yards allowed per game, though 31st with 29.6 points against.

The 48 points allowed versus the Buccaneers skews that number hard, so that’s one way to look at it. The Dolphins are 23rd in the NFL with a red zone success rate of 57.14%.

Tua shouldn’t scare the Falcons, and they can’t run the ball. The Dolphins are dead last in the league with 71.5 yards per game on the ground, as Myles Gaskin has been disappointing. I like the Falcons in a 26-20 win at Hard Rock.

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Falcons vs. Dolphins Pick
ATLANTA FALCONS -2.5