Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Pick – January 16

Baltimore Ravens (12-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-3)

AFC Divisional Playoff

Site: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.


Time: 5:15 PST/7:15 CST/8:15 EST

Ravens Double up Bills in All-Time Series

Although these two teams are both in the AFC, they have met only nine times since the inception of the Baltimore Ravens in 1996. The Ravens hold a 6-3 series lead as they have won the last three games in the series as all of those have been played since 1996. Last season, The Ravens took a 24-17 win in Orchard Park as Lamar Jackson passed for 145 yards and three touchdowns. The Ravens’ defense allowed only 209 total yards and Josh Allen threw for 146 yards and was sacked six times.

Vs. The Spread:


  • The Ravens check in at 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games
  • The road is good to Baltimore as the Ravens are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games
  • The UNDER is been the play in four of the Ravens last 5 games vs. Buffalo


  • The Bills are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo’s last 17 games
  • The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the AFC

On the Injury Front

The Ravens look to be all set as leading tackler Matthew Judon missed practice all week for a non-football illness, but was non on the injury report as of Thursday. Marcus Peters continues to have back issues, but he and tackle D.J. Fluker (knee) are questionable and expected to play.

Buffalo is looking for wide receivers Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs in the lineup on Saturday night as both have been limited this week. Neither practiced on Tuesday or Wednesday as Beasley is nursing a knee injury while Diggs is tending to his oblique. Both were limited in practice Thursday and are questionable. Defensive end Darryl Johnson is also questionable after missing all three practices with a knee injury

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Baltimore Ravens +2½ (-103) +125 O 49½ (-105)
Buffalo Bills -2½ (-117) -145 U 49½ (-115)

When the Ravens Have the Ball:

Baltimore Ravens LogoLamar Jackson continues on a roll as he continued his roll last week in the Ravens’ 20-13 win over Tennessee as he carried the ball 16 times for 136 yards and threw for 179. His dynamics continue to be unparalleled as a package at quarterback as he is the only quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. Give offensive coordinator Greg Roman credit as he has installed generally the same offense for Jackson that he ran with Colin Kaepernick in getting the 49ers to the Super Bowl where they ironically lost to the Ravens in 2013. Using JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards in the running game has allowed for more dynamics on offense where various variations in the rushing attack can be used. Dobbins now has seven straight games with a touchdown, which is the second longest streak by a rookie.

Buffalo is 17th in the NFL against the run in giving up an average of 119 rushing yards per game. The Bills have given up an average of 129.5 yards on the ground over the past four games as Jackson and company provide potentially the most solid ground threat in the NFL. The run support from leading tacklers Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds is imperative against the misdirections and power runs of the Ravens.

When the Bills Have the Ball:

Buffalo Bills LogoJosh Allen was on fire again last week in the 27-24 win over Indianapolis in Round 1 as he completed 75 percent of his passes for 324 yards and then carried 11 times for 54. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for over 300 yards, post a 75 percent completion rating and then record 50 rushing yards in a playoff game.

Diggs has had an incredible year as Allen’s go-to receiver with 127 catches for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns. Beasley (82-967-4) is another solid possession receiver with his possession skills and don’t forget about Gabriel Davis, who averages 17.1 yards per catch with seven touchdowns.

The Ravens’ pass rush could be a problem as they tallied 39 sacks behind the pressure of Judon (6 sacks) and leading tackler Patrick Queen (106 tackles). Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters on the corners will challenge Allen and his receiving corp.

Winner: Bills (-2½) 24, Ravens 20
Over-under: Take UNDER 49½

The Bets
Bills -2½
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.

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