Three games are already in the books in Week 16 after Christmas. Following several days of a game here and there, it’s back to a full slate on Sunday.
The NFL has 12 games scheduled on Sunday. There are only three Sundays left before the end of the regular season. Then the next season begins with the playoffs.
From the NFL family to yours, MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS! pic.twitter.com/RTqYG2uHiZ
— NFL (@NFL) December 25, 2021
There is a lot to decide between now and then. Several teams are knocking at the door with nothing but a foregone conclusion. This season is setting up a last-minute dash in the final week.
Covid is having a late-season dash in the NFL. I don’t know a team that isn’t impacted by Covid and certainly affects how you handicap games. It makes it tough when guys are in and out of the lineup without much forewarning.
Before locking in your props, be mindful of checking the pre-game injury and Covid report. Head below for our best NFL Week 16 prop bets for December 26, 2021.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Prop Bets
Josh Allen Total Passing Touchdowns
The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots meet at Gillette Stadium three weeks after the wind bowl in Orchard Park.
There was some snow, but the extreme wind resulted in the Patriots passing the ball three times.
Mac Jones had 2 completions on 3 attempts for 19 yards. Damien Harris chewed the Bulls up for 111 yards and a touchdown on 11.1 yards per carry.
Josh Allen had 145 yards and a touchdown on 15/30 passing. All things considered, given the conditions, Allen had a pretty good game for the Bills. Allen did all he could to hold the Bills up.
He enters Week 16 with 3,734 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on 65.2% completions. Allen has passed for at least 2 touchdowns in five of his last six outings.
In 11 of the Bills’ last 13 attempts, he’s had a multi-touchdown game. Under better conditions than their first meeting this season, expect Allen to have 2 touchdown passes.
Dawson Knox Total Receptions
The Patriots’ defense is best at taking away the best weapon on the field. Doing that to Stefon Diggs is difficult, but Bill Belichick will draw something up to at least slow him down.
Dawson Knox has been a favorite of Josh Allen in the passing game. Knox has 527 yards and 8 touchdowns on 12 yards per reception. He’s grabbed 44 receptions through 12 games.
Knox has 98 yards and 11 receptions in his last two attempts with a touchdown. The Patriots will be fine with Allen checking it down to Knox. He also has the potential to get upfield.
Knox had 7 receptions and 60 yards versus the Buccaneers, and then he followed up with 4 receptions and 38 yards versus the Panthers. At least 4 receptions looks good for Knox on Sunday.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Props
Miles Sanders Total Rushing Yards
Miles Sanders and the Eagles’ running game is the offense’s focal point. The Eagles lead the NFL with 165.6 rushing yards per game.
There isn’t another unit, including Jonathan Taylor and the Colts, that has gained more yardage than the Eagles a game. Sanders is going into Sunday with 709 yards and 5.5 yards per carry.
Sanders has run for 120 and 131 yards against the New York Jets and Washington Football Team in his last two attempts. He has a minimum of 64 yards on the ground through his last four outings.
The Giants have conceded 125 yards per game for 26th in the NFL. It’s hard not to see Sanders tearing up the field for more than 57 yards.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings Props
Alexander Mattison Total Receptions
Dalvin Cook is ruled OUT for Week 16. He’s been in and out of the lineup this season, with Cook unavailable again. The starting duties will go to Alexander Mattison, who has been a fine replacement for Cook.
Mattison is a downgrade from Cook, but you aren’t going to find many running backs in the NFL that are better than Cook. There are far worse replacements than Mattison in the league.
Mattison goes into this one with 432 yards and 2 touchdowns on 3.7 yards per carry. Mattison doesn’t see much in the passing game when he is acting in a backup role.
However, when Mattison has received a healthy dose with Cook absent, he’s played more of a role as a receiver. He started against the Lions and had 3 receptions for 34 yards.
Then in a heavier workload without Cook early in the season, he had 4 receptions and 59 yards versus the Seahawks, and 7 receptions for 40 yards in the first game against the Lions.
With Mattison on the field more often Sunday, there’s value on the Mattison receptions prop at plus money.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets Props
Zach Wilson Total Passing Yards
In the worst matchup of the year on paper, the terrible Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets meet at MetLife Stadium in Week 16.
It’s an ugly matchup, but seeing the top two quarterbacks from the most recent rookie class is something to look forward to, I guess?
Trevor Lawrence has passed for 2,945 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Conversely, Zach Wilson has 1,911 yards with 6 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 56.2% completions.
Wilson had a career-high 297 yards on October 3, but then fell off for an average of 164.3 yards per game in his last six games. The Jaguars have been respectable with 239 yards allowed per game through the air.
At 217.5 yards, that yardage looks a touch too high for Wilson. I’m going to point towards the UNDER on his passing prop.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kansas City Chiefs Props
Ben Roethlisberger Total Passing Yards
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are in the late window on the Sunday slate in Week 16. Pittsburgh needs a win to stay afloat in the playoff race.
The Steelers are coming off a 19-13 win in a physical contest versus the Titans at Heinz Field. They’re going into this one with a record of 7-6-1. Dropping to 7-7-1 would put the Steelers in too tough of a spot.
Pittsburgh needs a big game from Ben Roethlisberger at Arrowhead on Sunday. The KC defense has shown tremendous improvement since struggling early this season.
Chris Jones is expected back on the field after a stint with Covid. That’s bad news for Roethlisberger.
He’s working behind an inconsistent offensive line, and he’s been one of the most sacked quarterbacks over the last three weeks.
He threw for just 148 yards in the win over the Titans. Big Ten should expect more pressure in a hostile environment at Kansas City.
Najee Harris Total Rushing Yards
The Steelers have to give Ben Roethlisberger some help at Arrowhead. Keeping the Chiefs off-balance on the ground with Najee Harris should be important.
Harris goes into Week 16 with 891 yards and 6 touchdowns on 3.6 yards per carry. Harris has gained 71, 94, and 18 yards in his last three attempts.
The Chiefs have been adequate against the run with 115.6 rushing yards allowed per game. They have to assume that the Steelers will want to get Harris involved.
Pittsburgh needs to get back to the ground to take pressure off Roethlisberger. This looks like a good spot for Harris to have a productive bounce-back game.
Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys Props
Tony Pollard Total Rushing Yards
The Dallas Cowboys are getting closer to an NFC Championship. Their final three games go through the Washington Football Team.
Tony Pollard might be the most underappreciated running back in the NFL. He’s a nice change-of-pace back behind Ezekiel Elliott, but could easily play a lead role on another team.
Pollard has gained 676 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5.7 yards per carry this season. He deserves a bigger role next season after having recorded a career-high in his third year.
Pollard has gained at least 71 yards in his last two outings on 7 and 12 carries. He doesn’t need much work to run far. Pollard should get into the 50’s on the ground in this one.
Dalton Schultz Total Receiving Yards
Dalton Schultz has been a sneaky target for Dak Prescott in the Cowboys’ offense. He’s quietly compiled a solid season as the primary tight end.
Schultz goes into Sunday night with 651 yards and 5 touchdowns on 10.7 yards per reception. He is coming off a big showing with 8 receptions with 67 yards and a touchdown versus the Giants.
Schultz has notched at least 43 yards in four of his last five games. He’s gone OVER 40 yards in five of his last seven outings. I think his receiving prop has to be worth considering.