Broncos vs. Chargers NFL Pick – Week 11

The Denver Broncos hope to make this season a little more difficult on the Los Angeles Chargers. Thus far, the Chargers have been the biggest sleeper in the NFL with a record of 7-2. Is anyone talking about them? Not really, as Philip Rivers’ great season has been overshadowed by the play of Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees. Most seasons Rivers would be in consideration right now for the MVP, but he’s happened to be stuck in a year where quarterbacks are producing whopping numbers.

Rivers’ numbers would suggest that he should be up for MVP consideration, but again, it’s impossible to pass over Brees and Mahomes. The Chargers welcome the Broncos to Los Angeles, where they look to prove everyone wrong again. Although, considering the season the Broncos are having, a 40-point win probably isn’t going to garner much attention from the public.

The Broncos limp into California with a record of 3-6. They sent Demaryius Thomas packing and the Case Keenum signing has been a flop for John Elway. Keenum got attention with his play last season with the Vikings, notably the Saints game to send Minnesota past them with an improbable victory.

Elway escaped Brock Osweiler, but it has come back to hurt him with Keenum. They would have gotten the same production from Trevor Siemian at a much cheaper price. It’s like getting the same house renovations from Company A for a much more expensive price than Company B who can do the same job at the same price. We’ll see if the Broncos can figure something out on the road in Los Angeles. Head below for our free Broncos vs. Chargers pick.

Denver Broncos vs. L.A. Chargers NFL Week 11 Betting Odds:

Broncos +7(-120)
vs. Chargers -7(+100)

Over 46.5(-113)
Under 46.5(-107)

Betting odds provided by

Broncos vs. Chargers Pick:

Keenum has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season. Now you tell me if that’s worth 25 million guaranteed. He has the Broncos averaging 22.8 points per game. They have the 17th ranked passing game, with 250.4 yards per game. In the NFL today, a top-notch running game better be included in the offense to get away with that.

Now factor in that Thomas was traded and the Broncos’ offense leaves a lot to be desired. Take away their rout of the awful Arizona Cardinals, and the Broncos have scored just 18.8 points per game in their previous six games. Just about everyone has been blasting the Cardinals and they’re going to get a much better team today.

While Rivers should be getting more praise for the season he is having, the defense should be getting some kudos as well. They have allowed 11 points per game in their last six games, and part of that is thanks to the offense. Rivers has been playing well, but this offense chews up clock and controls the ball, allowing their defense to be fresh when the are on the field.

One of the issues in Kansas City with their defense is that Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense is going so fast that the defense doesn’t get a breather. They either score or have to punt the ball away pretty quickly. There are talent issues there too, but it doesn’t help to be on the field for a good chunk of the game.

Overall, the Chargers are allowing 20.7 yards per game for 8th in the NFL. Against an efficient offense, the Chargers should be able to keep them contained for most of 4 quarters. For the Broncos, their defense is all they can cling to these days. It’s certainly regressed, but they’ve still been decent with 23.7 points per game. With three wins in a row, the Chargers have averaged 21.6 points per game, so they are choosing to be balanced and winning games with their defense. In their last seven meetings, there has been an average of 35 points scored per game. I think this total is a point or two too high, thus providing an opportunity for a play on the UNDER.

The Bet
UNDER 46.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.