Bucs Redskins Spread Line and Predictions – NFL Week 14 Picks

The NFC South picture became clearer last week as the Atlanta Falcons beat the Bucs for the second time this year, knocking the Bucs down to 7-5. The Bucs are a very good team, but they’ve taken advantage of an easy schedule and put themselves in the mix this year when many thought they were still a year or two away. They look to bounce back this week against the apathetic Washington Redskins who couldn’t muster up much of an effort last week against their division rival NY Giants. The Redskins must win this week if they want to stay ahead of the Cowboys; the Bucs have to win if they want to stay in the NFC Wildcard race.

Like I said before, the Bucs have taken advantage of one of the leagues easiest schedules to put themselves at 7 wins through 12 games. All 7 of their wins have come against teams with a .500 record or less (cle, car, cinci, st.louis, ari, car again, sf). Their 5 losses have come against teams with better records (Pit, NO, Atl, Balt, Atl again). They rank in the bottom half in most offensive categories and are playing average defensively, with their passing yards per game being the exception, ranking 7th in the league. Their weakness is in stopping the run as they give up almost 130 yards per game on the ground. They’ve done a better job their last two games against the run, holding Michael Turner to 88 yards and Baltimore RB Ray Rice to 82 yards. But they lost both of those games, and are riding a multiple game losing streak for the first time this year. Last week they lost because of special teams, as they gave up a 4th quarter 10 point lead. Atlanta’s comeback was sparked by a kick return for touchdown, and the young Bucs couldn’t hold on late. It was a massive blow to a team that believes they’re good enough to be in the playoffs, but the loss meant they’ll almost certainly have to win out to get a Wildcard spot. They’ll be ready to bounce back this week against the Redskins.

Washington’s promising season has been anything but promising this year. After starting the year 4-3 with some big wins over Dallas, Green Bay, and Philly, they’ve dropped 4 of their last 5 and won’t be making the playoffs. But they can finish strong and play spoiler to a few NFC East divisional rivals with upcoming games against Dallas and the Giants. Their biggest problem has been in stopping the run. They give up almost 140 yards per game on the ground and were completely uninterested in tackling Brandon Jacobs last week. He carried 8 times for 103 yards and 2 TDs. While WR Anthony Armstrong is proving to be a great deep threat and future number 1 on the team, their passing game is poor and they score the 4th least amount of points per game.

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Bucs vs. Redskins Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Tampa Bay Bucs -2
@ Washington Redskins +2

Game Total:

Over (-110)
41
Under (-110)

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Bucs vs. Redskins Prediction for Week 14 Betting:

Spread Prediction (Top Play): Both teams have lost two straight, and even though the Bucs have a better record, I rank them at about the same as Washington on both sides of the ball. They both have problems stopping the run, and although the Bucs pass game is much better than Washington’s, the Redskins have the play calling of Kyle Shanahan which has made up for their overall lack of talent on offense. Washington are in a great bounce back situation after coming out flat against the Giants last week, and this is why I think they Skins play upset this week and beat the Bucs. The numbers don’t exactly agree with me as the Bucs have actually played better on the road than at home this year, and have beaten every losing team on their schedule. However the Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. They’ll be a lot of money on Tampa to come back from last weeks’ loss and steamroll this Redskins team, but people forget that Washington have beaten teams that are better than the Bucs this year (gb, philly, dallas) I like the Skins to cover the spread.

Top Play Prediction = Washington +2.

Game Total Prediction: Neither team has lit it up offensively lately. In fact, they’ve hardly lit it up all year. The Skins rank 28th in total points, and the Bucs rank 23rd, which would lead me to take the Under. But I don’t like taking anything under 42 unless at least one defense is in the top 10, and neither defense is good enough to keep from taking the Under.

Prediction = Over 41.

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