Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs SNF NFL Week 5 Pick – October 10

A big-time Sunday Night showdown will unfold to close out a busy Sunday slate of Week 5 action as the Buffalo Bills head to Kansas City in a fight for AFC supremacy.

Of course, these two teams met during last year’s AFC Championship game, with the Chiefs’ high-octane attack eventually winning out. Both teams enter Week 5 playing a tad worse than they were last season, but both squads should be able to ramp up their abilities for a game of this magnitude.

The Bills enter at 3-1, but they haven’t really dominated offensively yet – nor has Josh Allen. He’s been iffy with his accuracy at times, and as a result the offense is not yet clicking at the rate it should be.

For Kansas City, they’re a surprising 2-2 under Andy Reid. They’ve been sloppy at times on offense and have struggled mightily on defense. We’ve seen time and time again Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes raise their game for big moments, and this certainly would count as such. Expect SNF to produce some fireworks from both sides.

In an already thrilling regular season, this has the makings of an early candidate for the ‘Game of the Year.’ Two elite offenses and QB’s, duelling for conference supremacy. As always, read on beneath the current live odds for additional trends and betting data to help you make an informed selection. Enjoy Sunday Night Football, folks!

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Live Odds & Betting History

*These odds are provided by BetOnline.ag


  • Buffalo Bills +2.5 (-110)
  • Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

  • Buffalo Bills (+125)
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-145)
Total Points:

  • Over 56 (-110)
  • Under 56 (-110)
Overall Record 3-1-0 2-2-0
ATS Record 3-1-0 1-3-0
Home/Away Record 1-0-0 1-1-0
Points Per Game 33.5 33.5
Points Against Per Game 11.0 31.3
Passing Yards Per Game 258.8 297.8
Rushing Yards Per Game 145.3 130.3

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

Following a sloppy and surprising loss two weeks ago at home to the Chargers, the Chiefs rebounded in a big way last week. Patrick Mahomes was clinical on offense, and Kansas City showed a sign of things to come in the AFC.

Next up will be their old rivals and main threats to conference glory in the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs might not have the same rate of success as they did in Week 4 vs. Philadelphia, but it’s important to note that Kansas City is producing at a historically elite rate right now, regardless of opponent.

Buffalo still struggles however in generating pressure, and that’s a clear mismatch here. The Chiefs have strengthened their protection, and with time and space to operate in the pocket – look for Mahomes to be able to hit his targets with regularity. Though Buffalo does do well in coverage, both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill always seem to win their matchups, and should keep the chains moving.

For Josh Allen and the Bills, this is an offense that seems to be rounding into form. They dominated last week, and the Chiefs have well-documented issues in pass coverage. That said, Kansas City knows the formula to beat Buffalo, as they’ve done in multiple times over the past few seasons. With virtually no running game to worry about, the Chiefs will likely be able to pressure Allen with a beefy defensive line, while allocating more in coverage to prevent the passing game from running wild.


Bills vs. Chiefs Trends To Know:

  • Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
  • Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
  • Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games as an underdog.
  • Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings vs. Kansas City.


The Bills have struggled mightily in recent history going up against Kansas City.  They can’t take that next step, and Week 5 is likely to be yet another example of that.  Many seem to be writing off Kansas City far too early in 2021, and that’s only fuelled this veteran-laden squad.  Matt Milano remains doubtful for Buffalo, while the Chiefs will be the recipients of reserves on defense.  It’s rare you’ll get Mahomes at home for less than a field goal many times throughout his career – best to jump at this opportunity.  Kansas City shows they’re still the best on Sunday Night.


My Pick
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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