Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Pick – NFL Week 14

The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers butt heads at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football. This is an old school rivalry matchup in the NFC North. One team is looking to put a Super Bowl campaign together, while the other is booking vacation plans already.

Green Bay has looked like the most complete and well-rounded team in the NFL this season. It’s been a wide open campaign with no one really the clear best, but if I’m going to have to pick one, the Packers have been the most impressive team on both sides of the ball.

Yeah, the Packers could win the Super Bowl, but so could a bunch of other teams this year. It’s going to come down to who gets hot at the right time in January. Right now it’s hard to say who that team is going to be, but the Packers have a good argument.

The Packers are coming off a bye week following a 36-28 win over the Los Angeles Rams two weeks back. That was an impressive display with Aaron Rodgers passing for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns. He avoided interceptions, while Matthew Stafford threw one to the Packers.

Rodgers is going into Sunday night with 23 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 66.2% completions. Remember when there was noise that he wasn’t going to play for the Packers this year? He didn’t want to, but that hasn’t deterred Rodgers from doing his job to the best of his ability.

Rodgers has to be happy in Green Bay this season. He’s getting along with Matt LaFleur, and Rodgers is working with a quality defense. The offense isn’t required to do everything with how well their defense is playing. That’s what makes the Packers so dangerous.

As good as Rodgers’ form is in 2021, how well-balanced they are with the defense makes them very good. There isn’t a whole lot that makes the Bears a good team. They are looking for progress from Justin Fields. Giving Fields and their young players experience is most important.

The Bears are coming off a 33-22 loss at home against the Arizona Cardinals in Kyler Murray’s return to the field. It was their sixth loss in seventh attempts, with their only win during that stretch, a 16-14 win on a late field goal against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

At 4-8 on the season, the Bears are probably worse now than that record indicates. Fields needs something to work with before we properly judge him. An offensive line that allows him to scan the field would be a good start.

Head below for our free Bears vs. Packers pick on December 12, 2021.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of MyBookie:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Chicago Bears +12.5 (-115) +475 Over 43.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers -12 (-105) -650 Under 43.5 (-110)
Team Data Chicago Bears Green Bay Packers
Overall Record 4-8 9-3
ATS Record 4-8-0 9-3-0
Away/Home Record 2-4 5-0
ATS Away/Home 2-4-0 5-0-0
Points Per Game 16.8 23.6
Points Against Per Game 23.9 20.2
Passing Yards Per Game 173.8 248.3
Rushing Yards Per Game 125.1 106.7

Bears vs. Packers Prediction:

Justin Fields returns to the starting lineup after getting injured against the Baltimore Ravens three games back. Fields missed the 16-14 win over the Lions, and Andy Dalton started against the Cardinals as well.

Dalton was forced into 4 interceptions by the Cardinals’ defense. He threw for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns, but those 4 interceptions killed the game. If Dalton is more careful with the ball, and we have to include the offensive line play better, the Bears might have had a chance.

The Bears are dead last in the league with a sack percentage of 10.23% Their quarterback is sacked an average of 3.3 times per game for 31st in the NFL. It doesn’t matter if Fields starts or not. It’s good for the experience, but no quarterback can make it work with this protection.

It’s not like the Bears have some high caliber receiving core for Fields to get the ball out quickly to as well. Allen Robinson would be putting up big numbers on a good offense, and Darnell Mooney is a talented 24-year-old, but they need time to get open and the offensive line isn’t giving them an opportunity.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Trends:


  • 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games as an underdog
  • 0-5 ATS in their previous five games versus the NFC
  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games as an underdog on the road
  • 1-9 ATS in their previous ten games versus a team with a winning record at home


  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games as a favorite
  • 8-1 ATS in their previous nine games after covering the spread
  • 13-3 ATS in their previous 16 games
  • 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games versus the NFC
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a losing record

The worst news for the Bears in this one is that the Packers have a defense that can frustrate their inept offense. Chicago is 30th in the NFL with an average of 298.8 yards per game, and the combo of Dalton and Fields are last in the league with 173.8 passing yards allowed per game.

They’re up against an underrated Packers’ defense that has allowed 321.7 yards per game for seventh in the NFL. The Packers are well-balanced on defense, which makes it tough to run or pass on them. They’re in the top-10 against the run and pass.

When Aaron Rodgers isn’t the worst news for an opponent in a game, that’s not a good outlook. I just don’t think the Packers are going to have to do anything too exotic offensively to beat the Bears convincingly in this one.

I foresee the Packers taking an early lead, forcing Fields into trying to do too much with ensuing mistakes. The Bears are leaky against the run, as they’re 23rd in the league with 120.1 yards against per game. Green Bay can take a comfortable lead, and keep the ball away from Fields with the clock ticking.

In an uneventful game for the Bears, expect the Packers to clear the Bears for a 28-13 win on Sunday Night Football in Week 14.


Bears vs. Packers Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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