Chiefs (12-1) at Saints (10-3)
Kansas City owns a 6-5 lead in the series with the Chiefs winning the last two games as the AFC-NFC matchups are only renewed every fourth season. Kansas City took a 27-21 decision back in 2016 while the last Saints win was in 2008. Kansas City has won eight in a row while the Saints had a nine-game winning streak snapped last week at Philadelphia.
Vs. The Spread:
Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in it’s last five games and the Chiefs are 4-2 SU in New Orleans. Kansas City is 5-11 ATS in the last 16 matchups vs. the NFC South. The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six New Orleans Saints games, but the OVER has been the play in six of the Saints’ last nine against the AFC.
|Teams||Spread||Money Line||Total Points|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-3 (-115)||-159||O 52½ (-105)|
|New Orleans Saints||+3 (-105)||+139||U 52½ (-115)|
Patrick Mahomes may have thrown three interceptions in last week’s 33-27 win over the Miami Dolphins, but he also tossed four touchdown passes and banked 393 yards. His mental approach and skill set are so good that he staves off challenges and comes back with vengeance as he did by driving Kansas City to a 30-10 lead after three quarters. The Chiefs’ defense deserves credit as well as Miami was only able to score 10 points off the three picks.
Philadelphia back up quarterback Jalen Hurts as he and Miles Sanders both ran for over 100 yards as the Eagles downed the Saints 24-21. Taysom Hill may have thrown for 291 yards, but most of that was in the second half and came against a softer Eagles defense as the Saints trailed 17-0 at halftime. The Saints offense only netted 91 yards with four drives ending in punts with a miss field goal and a Hill interception in the first half.
When the Chiefs Have the Ball:
Adjusting to the speed of New Orleans’ No. 2 defense in the NFL may take a moment for Mahomes and company, but with the speed of Tyreek Hill on the outside and the route running skills and hands of Kelce, it may be a minor adjustment. When you also process how Hurts and Sanders carved New Orleans on the run, you have to wonder if even more roll outs with the option to keep the football may be in the game plan for Mahomes this week. Kelce is looking for his third game in a row with at least eight catches, 125 yards, and a touchdown reception.
The Saints get pressure on quarterbacks from Cameron Jordan and leading tackler Demario Davis, but it’s surprising that what is noted as a playmaking secondary hasn’t accounted for more than 13 interceptions over 14 games. It will be interesting to see how corners Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins hold up against the pressure that Hill puts on a defense.
When the Saints Have the Ball:
So Saints quarterback Drew Brees says he is ready to come back after 11 fractured ribs and a collapsed lung and coach Sean Payton says that is the plan, according to ESPN.com. The question is would anyone in the Saints organization tell Brees, “No, you’re not well enough.” Since we know that more than likely this is his last season in the NFL?
Payton is adamant in that New Orleans would not put Brees on the field if he was not healthy enough to play from the injuries that took place five weeks ago.
Kansas City still struggles defensively, but it may come down to stopping Alvin Kamara first and and making Brees do more than he has to keep up with Mahomes if the Chiefs phenom turns this into a track meet. Kamara has seven touchdowns in his last six games and looks for his third game in a row with a rushing touchdown. Saints wide out Michael Thomas has been ruled out with an ankle injury after he did not practice this week.
Defensively, the Chiefs have gotten better against the run as opponents have been at 89 yards or less in three of the last four. Much of that could stem from the fact that opponents have attacked Kansas City’s secondary with fervor in the last five weeks as Carolina’s Teddy Bridgewater and Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady nailed the Chiefs with 331 and 342 yards through the air, respectively.
Winner: Chiefs (-3) 34, Saints 27
Over-Under: Take OVER 52½