Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl LIV NFL Pick – February 2

After a long and gruelling NFL season, the final game is upon us. It’s the Joe Montana bowl as some are saying as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will do battle in Miami for Super Bowl LIV.

Nobody should be surprised to see Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs in this spot. After knocking on the door for years, the Chiefs finally got over the hump to get to Miami, and did so on the backs of an explosive offense.

For their opponents, Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers were a surprise team in 2019-20. In a competitive NFC West division, the Niners quickly ascended to the top. They have a solid, young group, spurred on by an elite defense. Will it be enough to handle the speed and arm of Patrick Mahomes? This Super Bowl should certainly be an exciting one, and as we’ve done all season long – TheSportsGeek has all of your betting needs covered.

Continue reading on beneath the posted odds for a game breakdown, betting analysis, and tactical preview for what promises to be an epic showdown between two of the sport’s most elite teams. It’s been a successful year, and we’ll look to finish on a high with a winning prediction on the Super Bowl spread between the Chiefs and 49ers.

Chiefs vs. 49ers Betting Odds:

San Francisco 49ers +1 (-105)
@ Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-115)

Over 54.5 (-110)
Under 54.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs. 49ers Pick:

What a matchup this should be. Especially when you consider the fact that this game will very likely feature the top quarterback in the NFL against the best defense this past season. Mahomes vs. the 49ers’ defense should produce some great viewing material, and though there is the old adage that ‘defense wins championships’ – don’t be so sure of that in Super Bowl 54.

San Francisco does boast a solid pass rush and will certainly throw a ton of bodies at Mahomes, but his passing ability and elusiveness to escape from the pocket make him a tough guy to track down. It’s also worth noting that Kansas City’s offensive line is a pretty solid unit, though the ferocity in which the Niners bring will certainly pose some problems.

One advantage for Mahomes however, and where I personally see this game being able to shift is when he drops back to pass. The Niners do have an elite secondary, but they do employ a pretty strict zone system within their defensive backfield. This is done to ensure Richard Sherman can roam freely and have the most impact. That said, Mahomes has shredded these types of defenses throughout his career and did so again in 2019-20.

Mahomes also has the benefit of being able to use his speed and the pace of his teammates as well. For as good as the Niners’ defense is, they have yet to see a team as quick as Kansas City’s. If Mahomes does get into trouble, don’t be surprised to see him rush the ball with some regularity. If you’ll recall, the Niners did have some big trouble limiting talented rushing QB’s like Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson earlier this season – and look for Mahomes to be able to replicate that formula.

On the other side of the ball, all eyes will firmly be on the unproven and relatively untested Jimmy Garoppolo. The Niners’ quarterback has barely thrown this post-season, and it really does make you question how little his team trusts him. We’ve seen him thrive in the regular season, but San Francisco has heavily shifted to a running attack throughout the post-season.

CAN’T TRUST JIMMY G?
One thing to note is the fact that Kansas City’s defense is no longer a liability. It’s a big positive for this team right now, and one of the main reasons they find themselves in this game. It improved significantly during the second-half of the season, and should be able to get after Garoppolo and hopefully force him into turnovers and mistakes. Their secondary has been much better in coverage, and with Chris Jones barrelling down on Jimmy G – moving the chains could be problematic.

Jones will also play a key role in stifling the all-important 49ers’ running game. It’s propelled San Francisco to new heights in the playoffs, and Raheem Mostert enters in fine form after his stellar outing against Green Bay two weeks ago. However, with Chris Jones now healthy – the big lineman should play a key role in limiting the San Fran ground attack.

Expect a tight game, with lead changes throughout. These are both great teams with elite units on both sides of the football, but ultimately Patrick Mahomes remains a generational talent and should be able to make game-breaking plays to tilt this result in favour of the Chiefs. The fact that he has a decisive rushing component to his game certainly helps, and with his arm – he should be able to keep the chains moving on offense. Kyle Shanahan is a great coach himself, but his offense just doesn’t have the same pieces to keep pace against a vastly improved Chiefs’ stop unit. Andy Reid should finally get his Super Bowl, as the Chiefs take Super Bowl 54 in a closely contested game.

My Pick
Chiefs -1
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.