Chiefs vs. Broncos Pick – NFL Week 4

Patrick Mahomes gets the spotlight on Monday Night Football in Denver at Mile High Stadium. It’s the first Monday night game of his short career. With all of the success he’s had so far, it almost feels like he has been around a lot longer. Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith last season and just took over as the starting quarterback this season. The decision to make Mahomes their starting quarterback was pretty easy. He showcased plenty of potential as a rookie in the preseason, and then filled in late last season in his first game in the regular season of his professional career.

They also had a full training camp to gauge that their choice with Mahomes was smart. While it’s early in his career, and I don’t like to read too far into things this early, there is no doubt that he has the ability to do big things in the NFL. The real test is going to be when teams start to get more tape on him. It tends to hurt mobile quarterbacks more so than pocket passers.

Mahomes is a pocket passer who has some mobility to escape pressure, just what most teams are looking for in this era. Vince Young, Colin Kaepernick, and Robert Griffin all fizzled out because it wasn’t difficult to shutdown their primary weapon, which was their legs. On the other hand, Mahomes has a cannon that is going to take him places.

With that said, this is undoubtedly going to be his stiffest challenge yet. They’ve played the Chargers, Steelers, and 49ers thus far. The Chargers are 23rd, the Steelers are 29th, and the 49ers are 20th defensively this season. Mahomes has made all of them look like a bad college football defense. Now we’re going to see if he can keep this going against one of the best defenses in the league.

If he rips the Broncos’ defense on the road in a hostile environment, it’s going to be his most impressive game yet. Even if his stats don’t surpass some of the things he’s done thus far, walking into Mile High and putting up good numbers on the Broncos is something a lot of quarterbacks are unable to do. Head below for our free Chiefs vs. Broncos pick on Monday Night Football in Week 4 of the NFL.

K.C. Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos NFL Week 4 Betting Odds:

Chiefs -3.5(-110)
vs. Broncos +3.5(-110)

Over 54(-110)
Under 54(-110)

Betting odds provided by

Chiefs vs. Broncos Pick:

Pat Mahomes has racked up 896 yards with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions for a near perfect QB rating of 137.4. Just when a defense thinks they have contained, and the secondary has his targets locked down, he somehow fits it in for a completion. The Broncos are well aware what Mahomes is going to bring to Monday Night Football tonight, they’re just going to have to execute and play their game.

It’s going to be imperative that Von Miller provides pressure and doesn’t allow Mahomes slip away and find a lane. Pressuring him is one thing, but it can be tough to bring him down or force him into a bad pass. He always has his head up and ignoring the white noise around him.

The Broncos have allowed 340.3 yards per game for 11th in the NFL. No, this isn’t the Super Bowl defense, but they are still a good defense and are going to provide the biggest challenge of the Chiefs’ season thus far. Denver have allowed 23.3 points per game. They dropped a 27-14 decision to the Ravens in Baltimore last week.

After beating up on the Steelers on Sunday night, the Ravens look for real this season. We had the Ravens against the Broncos last week, so no surprise there from the Broncos. However, they return home and aren’t travelling over to the east coast for this matchup. This also isn’t the Ravens’ defense, which didn’t give Case Keenum much room to operate. They didn’t allow Ben Roethlisberger to get anything going last night either. The Chiefs’ defense should be able to provide Keenum with some relief.

If the Denver defense can force Mahomes into playing an average game, the pressure is going to be on Keenum to complete plays for the Broncos. He has a defense in front of him that he should be able to navigate. The Chiefs are last in the NFL, allowing 362.7 yards per game through the air. Overall, they are allowing a whopping 474 yards per game for last in the league.

That is around 30 yards worse than the 31st ranked Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense. If there is a game for Keenum to finally show up, this would be the one against Mahomes and the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs’ defense should allow the Broncos to stick around here. An average, or even a good performance from Mahomes might not be enough for the Chiefs. They will need him to be spectacular like he’s been through three weeks. Against the best defense he’s played this season, Mahomes will likely confirm that he is human in Denver. It’s hard to lay points with the Chiefs’ defense on the road, especially playing at this altitude in Denver. The Broncos look like the play.

The Bet: BRONCOS +3.5 (-110)

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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.