Chiefs vs. Patriots NFL Pick – Week 6

The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots meet in Foxboro for a much anticipated matchup on Sunday Night Football. Since the end of last week, most people were looking at this game as possibly being the Game of the Year. I should say, ever since Patrick Mahomes started lightning the field on fire, people were looking at the schedule to see when the Chiefs play the Patriots. The day is finally here, as they get the spotlight in the Sunday night slot.

The Patriots have had extra time to prepare for this one, with their last game taking place on last Thursday night. They played the Colts in that one and won comfortably by a score of 38-24. It could have been a much bigger score, but the Patriots left points on the field. I can count three drives that the Pats would have scored on if it weren’t for receivers bobbling easy balls.

On the first drive of the game, Julian Edelman dropped a ball he would usually catch in his sleep, which would have set the ball up 1st and 10 in Colts’ territory. Instead, the Patriots had to punt from about midfield. Then there were a couple of other instances, notably Rob Gronkowski bobbling a ball around the 5-yard line which translated into an interception for the Colts. That was another drive shot that was surely going for 6. We can’t assume anything, but the Patriots were moving the ball all night.

Tom Brady stressed that he was frustrated over what transpired and that they should have put up over 50 points. Considering they got to 38 with all of the miscues, he is being pretty honest with that assessment. That was Edelman’s first game back, so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt on the drop. Josh Gordon connected with Brady in the 4th to give him his first TD as a member of the Pats.

When he starts getting into a consistent rhythm with Gordon, it’s going to be a scary offense to stop. With another practice under his belt, Brady and Gordon should continue to generate plays together. He’s going to have a breakout game sooner or later, and against this bad Kansas City secondary, it could very well come tonight. There is anyone in the Chiefs’ offense who could go off with Mahomes throwing them the ball, so it’s going to make for an interesting game. Head below for our free Chiefs vs. Patriots pick on Sunday Night Football.

K.C. Chiefs vs. New England Patriots NFL Week 6 Betting Odds:

Chiefs +3.5(-108)
vs. Patriots -3.5(-112)

Over 60(-107)
Under 60(-113)

Betting odds provided by

Chiefs vs. Patriots Pick:

Mahomes is what Stephen Curry is to the NBA, at least so far. He has a little ways to go before we start anointing him. But from what we’ve seen, just like Curry, whenever Mahomes raises up, good things are expected to come from it while they make it look so easy. Mahomes has thrown for 14 touchdowns and thrown 2 interceptions. Both of his interceptions came last week against the Jaguars.

Despite the interceptions, the Chiefs were still able to score 30 points on one of the best defenses in the NFL. Mahomes rushed for a score, and Kareem Hunt carried the ball for 87 yards and a touchdown. Even on an off day for Mahomes, the Chiefs scored 30 points, so that is scary enough.

Travis Kelce led in receiving with 100 yards. Any target on the Chiefs has the possibility of going off, and with Stephon Gilmore the only real reliable corner the Patriots have, it’s going to be hard to cover everyone on the field. Jason McCourty has been having some success, but this is going to be the biggest challenge they’ve had this season. If it isn’t Kelce having a big game, it could very easily be Sammy Watkins or Tyreek Hill. Putting pressure on Mahomes hasn’t done much good this season, because he just rolls out and throws from where he’s most dangerous.

Yes, Belichick is going to have a wrinkle up his sleeve to combat Mahomes rolling out. And yes, the Patriots will get some stops along the way. However, I don’t know if they have the talent to stop it for an entire 4 quarters. The scheme will likely be there for the Patriots, but I don’t know if they have the talent to counter the offensive punch that the Chiefs possess. With the Patriots going up against the Kansas City defense, they may not have to play lights out all night, though.

The Chiefs are 31st in the league with 343 yards allowed per game through the air. If Case Keenum was an average quarterback and not bad, that number would be higher than 343 yards. They’ve been better against the run, allowing 118.8 yards per game, but Belichick isn’t stupid, and the offensive game plan is going to be directed at their weak secondary.

Brady wasn’t happy about the turnovers last week. With those issues rectified, and Edelman getting a chance to shake off the rust, they will be performing at an elite level tonight. They should have easily put up 45 points last week, and the Pats rarely make the same mistakes in consecutive games. Now, they get to have fun against a brutal Chiefs’ secondary. The Pats should be able to roll up the points, but Mahomes against an average Patriots’ defense does cause a moment of hesitation to lay the points. The total is high, in fact it currently matches the highest total in NFL history, set in 2004 between the Chiefs and Raiders. I think it’s justified with the amount of talent on the field offensively. I see something like a 38-34 final score, so the OVER should hit regardless.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.