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Chiefs vs. Raiders Pick – NFL Week 12 TNF

After a 2-2 week in Week 11, Week 12 is quickly upon us. Though it’s not the best of match-ups, whenever the Raiders take on the Chiefs its a special occurrence due to the great rivalry these teams share. And even though in 2014 these squads are headed in different directions, this game will still be intriguing in the sense that the Chiefs can really put a stamp on their post-season berth, while we still wonder when/if the Raiders will win a game? Tonight likely won’t be the night but there’s still a ton of intriguing betting options to satisy your appetite. As always, we’ve got you covered at The Sports Geek so read on below for our official wager and full game breakdown.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Betting Odds:

Spread:
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-110)
@ Oakland Raiders +7.5 (-110)

Total:
Over 43 (-110)
Under 43 (-110)

Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv

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Chiefs vs. Raiders Pick:

While I really don’t think the Raiders are as bad as their record would indicate, it’s become increasingly difficult to put any money on them on a week-to-week basis. Their offense and defense is just too inconsistent and they’re a team that can’t be trusted. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have done well in 2014 despite some key injuries. They’ve stayed afloat and enter with a comfortable 7-3 record. That said, they possess no explosiveness within their squad and if their mediocre offense isn’t clicking they’ll struggle to breakaway from even the worst teams in the league. I see that sort of scenario unfolding this evening.

Last week the Raiders really got to Philip Rivers. They were all over him when he dropped back in the pocket. The Chargers don’t really pass protect well, and the Chiefs don’t either. As a result I think Alex Smith will be under siege and will have some difficulty moving the chains through the air. Jamaal Charles will need to play a key role, both in protection and running the football. To keep the rush in check, look for Charles to be handed the football early and often. Run plays kill clock time and keep it moving and over a game lessen the scoring. With the Chiefs controlling the ball and tempo, I think Charles has a big say in pushing this game Under the total.

On the other side of the football, I cannot see the Raiders accumulating much yardage against a stout Kansas City defense. To begin with, the Raiders aren’t very good at rushing or throwing the football, and when you consider the fact they’ll need to do both against one of the game’s premier defenses, it promises to be a long evening for Derek Carr and Co. Kansas City boasts a simply explosive pass rush, one that far exceeds Oakland’s. They enter with the 3rd-most sacks in the NFL. As a result, Carr will simply be trying to dump it off and stick to short-yardage plays to move the chains.

While I’m fairly certain the Chiefs win this game, to cover by more than touchdown on the road against a divisional rival on national TV, is still far-fetched. It’s a tough spot as well for Kansas City, fresh off an emotional victory over the Seahawks and likely already looking ahead to Denver next week. That said, they should win, though covering is iffy. Instead let’s turn to the Under 43 where I believe we’ve got good value. I think both defenses will vastly outplay the offenses, and the Chiefs offense will be sluggish and lethargic early on against a surprising Oakland defense. Expect a Chiefs one-score victory with the total finishing in the mid-30’s. On Monday Night Football we gave out a teaser recommendation (Steelers PK & U52) and that hit for us. Something similar again tonight with the favourite and the Under should be successful. Enjoy the game!

PICK = Under 43 (-110)