One of the more surprising teams so far in 2016 has been the Oakland Raiders. The black and silver have jumped out to a stellar 4-1 record, and though many predicted them for an uptick, I don’t think anybody foresaw it coming so quick. They look like the current team to beat in a tough AFC West, though it’ll be equally as tough to count out their Week 6 opponents – the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s been mixed results thus far for Andy Reid’s Chiefs team, but they still enter with a decent 2-2 record and know that this game today could hold heavy implications going forward. Kansas City should be quite well rested, as they’re coming off of a bye, and have had loads of time to prepare for Oakland and their potent offense.
This should be an excellent game between two evenly matched teams within the AFC West. Read on below for a full game breakdown, analysis, and a betting selection for this divisional clash between the Raiders and Chiefs.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Betting Odds:
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
@ Oakland Raiders +1.5 (-110)
Over 46 (-110)
Under 46 (-110)
Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv
Chiefs vs. Raiders Pick:
While it might seem a tad odd to see a 2-2 road favourite over a 4-1 home team, I believe the numbers and the line movement are quite justified. The Chiefs haven’t played to their full potential yet this season, turning in a couple of duds on the road. This is a solid team with a lot more to offer, and given the rest gained from the bye week – expect to see a playoff-calibre group on Sunday in Oakland.
The Raiders do boast a simply explosive offense – tough for any stop unit to effectively limit. And while the Chiefs have struggled on defense this season, in losing Justin Houston and other pieces, this is still a talented group that ranks higher than what they’ve done in 2016. Oakland will however get their points, there’s just too much talent within this unit. Where I see K.C. getting some real success going, is turning the Raiders into strictly a one-dimensional, passing offense on Sunday. Kansas City does not need to even worry about the run game. They’ve got no talent out of their backfield, as Latavius Murray is out and the rookies behind him aren’t all that dynamic. It should also be noted that it’s not as if the Raiders run the ball all that well to begin with. If the Chiefs can lay off, and focus on limiting the passing game to within the first-down markers, I think Kansas City will be okay. As long as they only allow a reasonable number, the Chiefs’ offense can still inflict some damage of their own.
On the other side of the football, it’s the exact same scenario. The Raiders’ defense remains highly questionable, and this Chiefs’ offense can definitely put up a bunch of crooked numbers. For starters, Oakland simply cannot defend against the run game. Look for the Chiefs to establish the powerful Spencer Ware early and often in this one. With a solid ground attack, it will set up nicely for Alex Smith to convert third downs into firsts, and keep the chains moving in short-yardage spots. Right now, surprisingly, the Raiders cannot generate any pressure on the quarterback. This will also align nicely for Alex Smith as the Chiefs do an exceptional job of keeping him off the ground. Look for Smith to have a bunch of space on Sunday, and let’s not forget he can run on this defense for first downs as well.
One other thing to keep in mind is the fact that tight-ends have destroyed Oakland all season long. It truly is their achilles heel, and Week 6 should be no different. Kansas City has Travis Kelce, one of the best in the game, and after seeing what the aging Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry did to these linebackers in coverage, look for Kelce to inflict even more damage.
I fully agree with the line movement for this game. Off a bye, the Chiefs are well-rested, focused, and understand the magnitude of this contest. For Oakland, they’ve been getting by, en route to a stellar 4-1 record – but ultimately not one that truly reflects their team. They still have some pretty glaring holes, and ones that the Chiefs are well-equipped to exploit.
Andy Reid is 12-5 against the spread coming off of a bye, and he’ll clearly have his Chiefs prepared. Oakland is not a stadium where ‘homefield advantage’ is much of a factor, especially with all of their recent relocation rumours. I think Kansas City turns in a statement road victory in Week 6.
PICK = Chiefs -1.5 (-110)