Colts Raiders Spread Line and Predictions – NFL Week 16 Picks

The Colts came up big when they needed it most, saving their season with a win against Jacksonville last week. Had they lost, the Colts would have been watching the playoffs on television instead of participating in them for the first time since 2001. Instead, Indy now controls their own destiny, as all they have to do is win their last two games and they are guaranteed to clinch the AFC South. Sitting at 8-6, they are currently tied with the Jags, but own the strength of schedule tiebreaker, which is what it would come down to should Jacksonville and Indy win out from this point. Interestingly, the Colts cannot clinch the division even if they win this week and Jacksonville loses, because the Jaguars would still win the division if they beat the Texans in week 17 and the Colts lose to Tennessee. Fortunately or Indy, they don’t need to really think about any of these scenarios, as all they need to do is continue to win. They may have to do so without Austin Collie, who sustained another concussion last week, and his status for the rest of the year is unknown at this point. While this would be a big loss for Peyton Manning and crew, Manning has been able to get it done without Collie before. He still has go-to guy Reggie Wayne, along with Pierre Garcon, Blair White and Jacob Tamme at his disposal. Manning has dealt with similar injury issues as Philip Rivers in terms of losing his trusted receivers to injuries, but they have both managed to keep making plays throwing to some lesser known guys. Last week finally saw Donald Brown come up with a big game, something that must have relieved Jim Caldwell a little given that Joseph Addai is still banged up. As good as Manning is, the Colts will be much more effective if teams need to be concerned in an Indy run game.

The Raiders managed to spoil Tim Tebow’s debut, beating the Broncos 39-23. With the win, Oakland can still dream about the postseason, although to call it a longshot may be an understatement. Sitting at 7-7, the Raiders will need to win their last two games, have Kansas City lose both of their final two games, and can only have the Chargers win one of their last two. This is a lot to ask, but before any of that matters, the Raiders will need to focus on getting the job done themselves. Jason Campbell has been pretty solid of late, after trading the starting gig back and forth with Brad Gradkowski for much of the season. Campbell’s ability to run has helped make up for his arm’s shortcomings, as he has now led the Raiders to back to back wins, including an impressive one against San Diego two weeks ago. Of course, the Raiders will not win games on Campbell’s back, but rather depend on their rushing game to get them going. Darren McFadden has had the occasional clunker, but for the most part has emerged as one of the premier running backs in the league, when healthy. Last week against Denver he rushed for 119 yards, and added 39 through the air. When Run DMC can get established as a menacing presence in the game, the Raiders can compete with anyone. Michael Bush has contributed nicely when called upon, and given McFadden’s proneness to injury, it is important for Bush to carry some of the load himself. At this time, it is unknown if feared cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha will be able to play, after being in and out of last week’s game with a lingering ankle problem. Asomugha is a big part of the Raiders’ defense, so his status may go a long way in determining how effective Oakland can be against a pumped up Peyton Manning.

The Raiders seem to revel in their role as spoilers, and they have a big opportunity to potentially knock Peyton Manning out of the playoffs with a win here. They can also keep their playoff hopes alive with a victory, as long as the Chiefs don’t win their game against the Titans. The Raiders seem to match up well against the Colts, as Indy’s weakness is in stopping the run, and the Raiders a run-heavy team. Although to the Colts’ credit, they managed to effectively shut down Maurice Jones-Drew last week, so perhaps they are turning the corner. Despite that solid effort, they are still allowing 135.8 rushing yards per game, the 5th worst mark in the league, so if the Raiders are to be successful, they need to feed the ball to McFadden and Bush and have them wear away at Indy’s aging defense. On the other side of the ball, the big matchup will be Manning versus the Oakland secondary. The Raiders are only allowing 197.3 passing yards per game, although despite that low number, are giving up a whopping 26 touchdowns through the air, 4th worst in the league. These numbers suggest a failure to stop many teams in the red zone, an area where Manning thrives. Having Asomugha play or not may make a huge difference in this respect. If Collie is indeed out, then the Colts will need to lean even more heavily on Reggie Wayne, who is just two weeks removed from a 200 yards receiving game. The Raiders are susceptible on the ground, giving up 130.9 rushing yards, so the Colts will once again look to Donald Brown to establish some sort of running attack, opening up play action for Manning.

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Colts vs Raiders Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Indianapolis Colts -3
@ Oakland Raiders +3

Game Total:

Over (-110)
47
Under (-110)

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Colts vs Raiders Betting Predictions/Picks for Week 16

Spread Prediction (Top Play): It is a common philosophy of many betters to never go against Peyton Manning. He seemingly always gets it done when he needs to. However, this season has shown a more human side to Manning, who is still having a good year, but is throwing picks and not getting it done in crunch time. Whether it is his age starting to show, the fact that he is dealing with inexperienced receivers, or that the Colts have had very little success with the run game, or some combination of all of them, Manning can no longer be counted on to win games by himself. The Raiders always play tough at home, as they sit with a 5-2 record in Oakland, while Indy is not even .500 on the road at 3-4. The Raiders are 5-0 ATS after scoring over 30 points in their previous game, and Indy are 1-4 in their last 5 as a favorite. While betting against Manning is always a scary proposition, the way these two teams match up favors Oakland. When you can bet on an underdog at home that has the ability to put up a lot of points like Oakland does, that is never a bad choice. Take Oakland with the 3 point safety net.

Pick (Top Play): Raiders +3

Game Total Prediction: Both teams have the offensive weaponry to put up some big numbers, as both proved last week, scoring 34 and 39 points in their respective games. They also do not have the shut down defensive units capable of preventing their opponents from scoring in bunches either. In Indy’s last 5, there has not been any Unders, and the Over is 6-1 when the Raiders are an underdog at home. This one is shaping up to be a situation where Manning storms his team down the field to score, and then McFadden runs his way through Indy’s defensive line in response. Look for the points to pile up in what should be a highly entertaining game.

Pick: Over 47

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