A decent start to Week 5 was erased in crushing fashion as our MNF Redskins +8 bet was wiped away with a needless last second Seattle football, but such is life when wagering on the NFL. It was a step in the right direction and we’ll look to build on that as we progress to the half-way mark of the season.
Tonight it seems we finally have a Thursday Night Football match-up with some meaning, as the Indianapolis Colts travel to the state of Texas to battle with their divisional rivals the Houston Texans. The two top teams in the AFC South sqaure off in a game that definitely holds some early post-season implications. After many weeks of meaningless match-ups or blowouts in the Thursday night spot, this promises to be a refreshing change, and just like always we’ve got your betting needs covered at The Sports Geek. Read on below for our official wager and further game analysis.
Colts vs. Texans Betting Odds:
Indianapolis Colts -3 (-120)
@ Houston Texans +3 (+100)
Over 47 (-110)
Under 47 (-110)
Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv
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Colts vs. Texans Pick:
The Houston Texans’ defense has for the most part carried the mail for their team in 2014. They boast great individual talent and work together well as a cohesive unit. But facing one of the top quarterbacks in football right now in Andrew Luck, won’t be an easy task. The former Stanford grad has been tearing it up of late, netting 300-plus passing yards in each of his last three games.
The key for Luck thus far has been the time and protection he’s been getting, and that should continue on Thursday night. While J.J. Watt is ferocious, he’ll be monitored and double-teamed effectively. Indianapolis can afford to do this because nobody else on the Houston defensive line is a viable threat. Maybe when Jadeveon Clowney returns he can fill the void, but right now, it’s not meant to be. The Colts protect Luck very well and he’ll have time and space to add to his impressive passing statistics. Wayne, Hilton, and Nicks are all dangerous and can hurt the Houston secondary.
It also doesn’t help that the Houston defense has been surprisingly bad thus far at stopping the run game. They currently rank 27th in the entire league, conceding an average of 4.79 yards per carry. Ahmad Bradshaw will get handed the football with regularity, and should be able to burst through the Texans’ front at will. The run game will set up the Luck deep ball, and force the Texans to guess on most plays.
On the other side of the football, the Texans too should enjoy some success moving the chains, just not to the same extent the Colts will. While Arian Foster seems fully healthy once again and he’ll have a solid game, the Colts’ pass rush is quietly becoming one of the top units in the game. They put immense pressure on Joe Flacco last week, and should be able to get to an equally immobile Ryan Fitzpatrick tonight.
No doubt, the public will be all over Indy tonight. That’s fine, and though I’ve made a point of late to avoid the public perception, sometimes the public/obvious wager is the right one. I’m a firm believer of that mindset for tonight’s game. I like the spot for Indy, to take a real hold of the top spot in the AFC South, and with the Texans coming off a crushing OT loss to their state rivals from Dallas, you have to wonder their mindset entering tonight. Laying just three points, take the superior quarterback and the better team. Colts -3 is the play tonight.
PICK = Colts -3 (-120)