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Colts vs. Texans Pick – NFL Week 5

Following another successful betting week in Week 4 of the NFL season, we’ll again look to kick off Week 5 on the right foot as a key showdown in the AFC South gets underway. Two teams that have definitely struggled with square off as the Colts travel south to take on the Houston Texans. Undoubtedly the biggest issue in the lead-up to this game remains the status of Andrew Luck which has still yet to be determined as of writing this on Wednesday evening. Head coach Chuck Pagano has stated that the Colts will do the ‘right thing’ with Luck and him playing is still very much up in the air. There are lots of uncertainties as we enter Week 5, but it’d be great to get the week started off right. Read on below for the full breakdown and a pick on Colts/Texans with or without Andrew Luck!

Colts vs. Texans Betting Odds:

Spread:
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 (-110)
@ Houston Texans -2.5 (-110)

Total:
Over 44.5 (-110)
Under 44.5 (-110)

Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv

Colts vs. Texans Pick:

It’s tough to adequately report on this game with Luck’s status still up in the air. While my personal prediction is that he will suit up for the Colts given their rough start to the year, the Stanford product definitely will not be anywhere near 100 percent in this contest. Add in the fact that the injury is to his shoulder and you really have to wonder how effective he’ll be if he does end up dressing to take on the Texans.

It’s been a pretty surprising start for the Colts, as many pegged them to challenge for the Super Bowl. As of right now in Week 5, they look quite far away from this lofty goal. They’ve been sloppy on offense and pretty porous on defense, and it’s not as if they’ve been playing great teams either. In Week 5 they’ll face another bad team in Houston, but it’s likely going to be a struggle with either a banged-up Andrew Luck or no Luck at all.

Even if Luck does end up playing, with the current state of his offensive line, it may not matter. His O-Line is in rough shape at the moment and have really been brutal in the early going. With Houston boasting a pretty ferocious pass rush featuring J.J. Watt, you’ve got to wonder about Luck taking hits in the pocket and still effectively moving the football. Even if they turn to the run, the O-Line isn’t good enough to consistently open up holes for Frank Gore on the ground. Whether he plays or not, it could be another tough day for the Colts and their perceived explosiveness on offense.

On the other side of the football, don’t expect fireworks either from this awful Texans offense. Who would have thought the duo of Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett would struggle to put points on the board? Mallett in particular has been pretty bad this year and has been quite inaccurate with his throwing through the first 4 weeks. Add in the fact that it looks like they’ll be without Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington, and moving the ball through the air could be problematic.

As a result, look for the Texans to use the returning Arian Foster a lot more in this one. Foster is fresh off his return from injury and should have good energy in his legs. The Colts aren’t that great of a defensive team, and Foster should have some success running the football. As we all know, lots of run plays kill the clock generally and keep that clock moving. As a result, there seems to be some value within the totals market in this game.

When you factor in the uncertainty surrounding Luck and the Colts offense in general, it’s tough to back them against any team given their current predicament. As a result, look to the Under 44.5 points on Thursday Night Football. These early games always seem to be sloppy as players are hurt and seem fatigued. With Andrew Luck in serious doubt, the Colts offense won’t be the same, and as a result look for this to be a low-scoring contest in a key AFC South showdown.

PICK = Under 44.5 (-110)