If you rolled with my wild card NFL DFS picks, you probably found a way to cash last week. I had several solid plays, with the Colts defense standing out as an awesome value pick.
The decision to fade DeAndre Hopkins proved wise, but I still got burned with DeAndre Carter being a total bust. He was dirt cheap and I knew the risk going in, but he still hurt my NFL DFS lineup.
That being said, it was a successful week for the most part, as Andrew Luck and Ezekiel Elliott were fantastic options worth paying up for. Melvin Gordon, Amari Cooper and Alshon Jeffery weren’t amazing, but they did top 10 fantasy points and helped me piece together a cash-worthy squad.
Simply cashing isn’t really my goal, of course. That’s always welcomed, but we take interesting GPP strategies into these slates with an eye on a big cash prize.
All we can do is try again going into the Divisional Round, though. FanDuel has four more games available to us, so let’s crack down and see what kind of roster my favorite NFL DFS picks can piece together:
QB: Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts ($8.4k)
Luck was solid last week and has a very good matchup against the Chiefs this week. This game has the highest betting Total of the Divisional Round, too, so there’s a pretty good chance we see both sides put the ball in the air quite a bit.
There are several fantasy passers to look at this week, but Luck is the third cheapest when he easily could end up dropping the biggest numbers. Be sure to pair him with one or two of his weapons.
RB: Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints ($6.4k)
There are some really good running backs available, but this is the playoffs and the crazy numbers we saw during the regular season aren’t a given. Instead of paying up, I’ll use Ingram, who is bound to be a big part of the Saints’ playoff run.
The matchup isn’t amazing and Alvin Kamara steals a lot of touches, but when teams get close to the end-zone in postseason play they tend to run the ball. FanDuel values touchdowns way more that receptions, too, so I’m trying to get easy points at a discounted price tag.
Ingram was not always reliable in 2018, but he still had three games with 20+ fantasy points. If New Orleans gives him the ball 10-15 times, he could crush this price tag. He also will not be high-owned, so if he works out he could give me a huge edge in GPPs.
RB: Damien Williams – Kansas City Chiefs ($6.1k)
Williams also could be low-owned, as most people are going to feel forced into spending on Todd Gurley and/or Ezekiel Elliott. Williams may lose some work to Spencer Ware, but he’s still in a good spot at home in a game that should feature a lot of scoring.
Williams has flashed his upside in this system, as he twice topped 21+ fantasy points over his last three outings. Again, as teams get closer to the goal-line, they tend to run more. I’ll be crossing my fingers for a featured role and 1-2 touchdowns.
WR: Amari Cooper – Dallas Cowboys ($6.8k)
Cooper was solid last week and will be needed even more in a better matchup against the Rams. L.A. has talent on defense, but they got burned a few times through the air. The explosive Cooper could do that to them again this week.
WR: Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs ($8.4k)
This Chiefs vs. Colts game should be lit, so I want exposure to it. Both passing games offer immense upside, but I’ll just pay up for the most explosive weapon KC has at their disposal.
Sammy Watkins is a very interesting GPP play if healthy, but that’s assuming unnecessary risk and a less than bargain $6k price tag.
WR: T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts ($7.9k)
Michael Thomas is also in play, but Philly’s defense has been better than advertised lately. I’ll drop $500 down and go right back to that Colts vs. Chiefs game and see if the chalk can’t work out.
I faded chalky plays a lot during the regular season, so hopefully the obvious calls pan out for me here and I can nail some contrarian picks. Hilton has a great matchup in front of him and has been too quiet the past two games. Look for an explosion here when Indy needs it most.
TE: Eric Ebron – Indianapolis Colts ($6.6k)
I paired Ebron with Luck last week and that worked out nicely, so why not do it again?
The two connected for a touchdown last week and that makes a ridiculous 14 scores on the year. The Chiefs rank dead last against fantasy tight ends, so I’m not getting cute here.
FLEX: Ted Ginn Jr. – New Orleans Saints ($4.5k)
Ginn is my YOLO tournament play of the week. He’s missed a ton of time with an injury, but is the bare minimum price for wide receivers at FanDuel and has the deep speed to take any catch the distance.
I don’t know how much the Saints will use him in just his second game since September, but his previous return from injury resulted in five catches and 74 yards against the Steelers.
The fear of the unknown could keep his ownership low, but I can’t fade this price and the upside at home against the Eagles.
DEF: New England Patriots ($4.7k)
No defense feels particularly safe this week and all of the would-be values have some of the worst matchups. Dallas is somewhat interesting, but I’ll just go with the tried and true Patriots.
New England is undefeated in their last seven Divisional Round contest and are 8-0 at home this year. Philip Rivers has also never beaten Tom Brady. Perhaps this is the year that changes, but I’m betting it won’t.
New England’s defense in general isn’t as bad as people suggest it is. From a raw points perspective, they’ve averaged the second most fantasy points (8.7) among any defensive units in the player pool. Their defense has also been relatively stingy, too, with just the Miami Dolphins putting up more than 17 points against them over their last six games.
Overall, I’m starting my NFL DFS lineup building process with that Colts vs. Chiefs game and working my way down from there. I prefer to get elite value when I see it, so I want Luck over Patrick Mahomes and will take Hilton over Michael Thomas.
The same can be said for Ebron over Zach Ertz or Travis Kelce, as well as my running back plays. There are some risky calls here, but you need to figure out the right fades, the right chalk and the right contrarian plays to take down a GPP.
It’s very possible you absolutely need one or both of Zeke/Gurley to win this week, but I’m betting that you don’t. I still have plenty of elite, high upside plays and not spending so much for running backs saves enough cash to produce a very balanced team.
Use this lineup as it stands, use just a few of my NFL DFS picks or completely go against my logic. Whatever you do, I wish you luck this week. Thanks for stopping by and enjoy the games!