Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Pick – Week 6

The NFL is set up with another great slate of football action in Week 6. Twelve games are up on the board throughout Sunday. One of these matchups will be between the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars. These two teams have had rough starts to the season, but will look for a big win in London. This game will kick off at around 9:30 AM Eastern time.

Miami has opened up this season with a record of 1-4, which has them sitting in third place of the AFC East division. The Dolphins have lost four games in a row entering this one, including a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend. Miami was up 10-7 early in that game, but gave up 38 of the next 45 points in route to a 45-17 loss.

The Jaguars are one of two winless teams left in the NFL this season. Jacksonville has now lost 20 games in a row, with their last win coming in Week 1 of last season. The Jaguars met up with the Tennessee Titans last week. Jacksonville kept it close early, but eventually fell apart in this one. The Titans were able to pull ahead in route to a 37-19 win.

These two teams have much higher expectations entering this season and will look to get something going before their bye week next week. The Dolphins have been missing their starter at Quarterback, while Jacksonville has just been dysfunctional. If either team can grab an early lead in this one though, it could be enough for the win.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Money Line Totals
Miami Dolphins -3 (-107) -158 Over 47 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-113) +138 Under 47 (-110)

 

Betting Data Miami Dolphins Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 Record 1-4 0-5
2021 Home 0-2 0-3
2021 Away 1-2 0-2
2021 ATS 2-3 1-4
2021 ATS Home 0-2 0-3
2021 ATS Away 2-1 1-1
2021 O/U 3-2 2-3
2021 O/U Home 1-1 1-2
2021 O/U Away 2-1 1-1

Dolphins vs. Jaguars NFL Game Preview

The last time these two teams met up was in Week 3 of last season. James Robinson had two rushing touchdowns on the afternoon, but it was not enough for Jacksonville. Ryan Fitzpatrick had two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in this one. Miami was able to dominate early in route to a 31-13 win on the road.

These two teams have met up 10 times throughout their histories. Both teams have gone 5-5 throughout those matchups though. Miami is coming off a win in the most recent matchup and the Dolphins have won four of the last six. Jacksonville will look to bounce back though as they meet up with the Dolphins at a neutral site in London.

Both teams have very different looks at Quarterback entering play in this one. Last season, the two Quarterbacks were Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gardner Minshew. Tua Tagovailoa will be back under center in London after being out with injury. The Jaguars will have rookie Quarterback Trevor Lawrence under center. If either QB can control the game early, it could be enough for the win.

Opening Odds and Line Movement

The spread for this game started at -2 ½ in favor of the Dolphins. This line got as high as -3 ½ before dropping back down to -3 a couple of nights before kickoff.

The over/ under for this matchup opened up at 43 ½ points, but is now up to 47 points. These two teams have not looked consistent on either side of the ball this season and this total seems like it could be a bit high.

The change in the spread for this matchup makes sense with Jacksonville looking rough early in this season. Tua Tagovailoa is back under center, but I am not sure if he will be 100%. This feels like the game that the Jaguars need to break through with if they want a chance.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • Both teams 5-5 SU in last 10 games
  • Dolphins 5-4-1 ATS in last 10 matchups
  • Under is 7-3 in last 10 meetings between two teams

Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

  • 5-3 SU in last eight games as favorite
  • 4-4 ATS in last eight games as favorite
  • 12-16 SU in last 28 games against Conference
  • 17-11 ATS in last 28 games against Conference
  • 2-6 SU in last eight October games
  • 5-3 ATS in last eight October games
  • 4-7 SU in last 11 games after two or more losses
  • 7-4 ATS in last 11 games after two or more losses

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends

  • 5-26 SU in last 31 games as an underdog
  • 13-18 ATS in last 31 games as an underdog
  • 7-21 SU in last 28 games against Conference
  • 13-15 ATS in last 28 games against Conference
  • 0-1 SU in last game on neutral field
  • 0-1 ATS in last game on neutral field
  • 2-7 SU in last nine October games
  • 2-7 ATS in last nine October games
  • 3-19 SU in last 22 games after two or more losses
  • 9-13 ATS in last 22 games after two or more losses

Free Bet and Game Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-113)

Both of these teams have had rough starts to the new season and will look for a big win here in London in Week 6. The Jaguars have a bit of an advantage in London with the amount of times they have gone and played over there. I think this will give them a bit of a home field advantage on Sunday. If the Jaguars can use that to their advantage, I think they can win this one.

Trevor Lawrence will get the start at Quarterback for Jacksonville. Lawrence has thrown for 1146 yards, six touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has also rushed for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Tua Tagovailoa will be back for the Dolphins in this one. Tagovailoa has 215 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Tua also has a rushing touchdown this season.

The line for this game is pretty big given that this is in a neutral site that may give Jacksonville an advantage. Neither team has looked good this season, which makes Miami as a favorite a bit odd to me. I think at the very leas the Jaguars can keep this one close with a chance to finally end this losing streak. I really like the value on Jacksonville to cover the spread.

The Bet
Jacksonville Jaguars +3
-113

Dolphins vs. Jaguars Betting Recap:

  • Oddmaker: BetOnline
  • Money Lines: Miami Dolphins (-158) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+138)
  • Spread: Jaguars +3 (-113)
  • Over/Under: 47 Points
  • Prediction: Dolphins 21 – Jaguars 20
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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