It wasn’t a very good Sunday for myself as some puzzling efforts by the Kansas City Chiefs and a missed field goal by Stephen Gostkowski cost us a pair of covers. The loss on New England particularly stings as Gostkowski is one of the best kickers in the game and him missing that drastically in a key situation was very unexpected. But we’ll move on to a key game for the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football. Every game is vital for the Fins as we enter the final stretch of the season. They’ve got a very legitimate shot at the post-season and cannot afford to lose focus despite the quality of their opponent tonight. The Jets have been brutal this season and are coming off a pathetic effort last week against the Buffalo Bills. Even though they’ll turn back to Geno Smith at quarterback, it likely won’t matter. It’s a key game for post-season positioning and we’ll be looking for a winner to end your betting week. Read on below for a full game breakdown and a winning selection to close out Week 13.
Dolphins vs. Jets Betting Odds:
Miami Dolphins -7 (-115)
@ New York Jets +7 (-105)
Over 42 (-110)
Under 42 (-110)
Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv
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Dolphins vs. Jets Pick:
The Jets are just an absolute mess. It is puzzling because they have a pretty solid defense, but their offense has just been so anemic in 2014 that the results have not followed them. And even though their defensive unit has for the most part been quite reliable, it’s coming off a dismal effort last week against Kyle Orton and the Buffalo Bills. They got gashed, and that should continue again tonight against a versatile, Ryan Tannehill-led offense that Miami brings. This is especially true because New York is slated to be without key defensive linemen Muhammad Wilkerson. Wilkerson has been huge for the Jets this season and his loss is a huge blow to New York’s front-seven. They’ll really struggle to stop the run or disrupt Tannehill’s rhythm with Wilkerson’s absence. Look for Miami to have loads of time and opportunity to set up what’s emerged into a dangerous offense. They put up 35 last week on the road in Denver, and even though they lost, lots of people took note of how lethal the Fins can be. New York’s secondary looked lost last week against Buffalo’s mediocre receivers, so there should be lots of space for Jarvis Landry and Mike Wallace. Look for big games from that duo tonight. And don’t discount the run game either. Lamar Miller averaged 5 yards a carry against a pretty good Denver run defense, and he should again be a beast vs. a Wilkerson-less Jets run D. I can’t see the Dolphins offense facing much/if any resistance tonight. It’s a big game and they’ll be raring to put a hurt on their divisional rivals early and often.
For the Miami defense, they’re fresh off conceding a ton of points to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. But even with that performance in mind, this remains a great defensive unit and one that should cause Geno Smith a load of problems tonight. The Dolphins are similar to the Bills in that they put a ton of heat on opposing quarterbacks. From what we’ve seen so far, the Jets offense struggles immensely when pressured, and will likely do so again tonight. New York conceded seven sacks last week and don’t be surprised if a similar number is put up again this evening. Miami also has a top-10 run defense, so simply turning to the ground game likely won’t give the Jets much success.
Once again, the Jets are a mess this year and are merely looking to quietly play out the year before an off-season of some big changes. The Dolphins however are headed in an entirely different direction and will enter this contest tonight as motivated as ever to embarrass their divisional rivals on their home turf on Monday Night Football. Every game matters for Miami and they know they can’t afford a slip-up here if they want to make the playoffs. It’s a must win for them and with their superior offense and defense, I presume they should easily cover the touchdown in tonight’s contest.
PICK = Dolphins -7 (-115)