Dolphins vs. Patriots Pick – NFL Week 12

The New England Patriots went to a different country last week, but it didn’t make difference. The Patriots blew out the Raiders by a score of 33-8 in Mexico City. Oakland fumbled deep in Patriots’ territory before halftime and the game was essentially over right there. Any momentum they could have generated went out of the window on that play.

There wasn’t much reason to watch how the rest of the game played out, because everyone knew how it was going to go. I played the Patriots for the 2H as I threw in the towel on the Raiders, so there was that incentive to keep the game on. The Pats welcome the Miami Dolphins to Foxborough this weekend for a meeting of two franchises on opposite ends of the totem pole. You could have just rehashed that line for the last two decades every time the Dolphins and Patriots have played.

The Patriots expect to be good every year, and the Dolphins hope to be good. You can use the Dolphins and Bills interchangeably. If you have any Dolphins or Bills’ fans for friends, you’ve probably heard them say this is going to finally be the year they take over the AFC East. There are some who say it more often than others, but I’ve heard it from more than a few people.

To make a long story short, 2017 will go down as another dominating performance by the Pats in the division. Of course, there is time left, but barring anything significant, the Patriots are going to cruise to another divisional crown. Like, say, Tom Brady blows out his knee and Brian Hoyer is the new starting quarterback. I don’t know, though, the Pats would probably still be fine with Hoyer when it comes to fending off the Dolphins and Bills. Super Bowl? Yeah, good luck with that.

The Dolphins have lost four games in a row, which began with a beating in Baltimore against the Ravens. They lost that one 40-0, and then dropped decisions to the Raiders, Panthers, and Buccaneers. Jay Cutler maybe should have just stuck with that television job and declined the invite from the Dolphins. Cutler will be out this week with a concussion, so it gives Matt Moore another opportunity to be at the controls. Matt Moore vs. Tom Brady? The result is a 16.5 spread in favor of the Patriots. Head below for our free Dolphins vs. Patriots pick in Week 12 of the NFL.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds:

Spread:
Dolphins +16.5(-110)
vs. Patriots -16.5(-110)

Total:
Over 47.5(-110)
Under 47.5(-110)

Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv

Dolphins vs. Patriots Pick:

The anchor of the Dolphins has traditionally been their defense. Their defense has kept them around in games and gave them a competitive product on the field. With no defense, the Dolphins have been getting exposed in a big way. In their last four games since the Ravens debacle, the Dolphins have allowed 35.5 points per game. It wasn’t against the most dauting offenses, either. The Ravens were stuck in mud before that game, but the Dolphins provided a nice pick me up in Baltimore. Joe Flacco’s QB rating was in the toilet, before the Dolphins brought him back to life. Overall, the Dolphins have allowed 25.4 points per game on the year.

Brady has tossed 22 touchdowns with just 2 interceptions. He continues to put up monster numbers at his age. The Patriots know he isn’t going away anytime soon, so they felt comfortable sending Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers. Brady and Rob Gronkowski were listed on the injury report earlier in the week, but will be good to go against the Dolphins.

Brady should be able to have an easy time operating against the Dolphins. Note that the Dolphins’ defense is allowing the highest QB rating against. Quarterbacks have hit the Miami secondary for an average QB rating of 104.3. Like I said, Flacco was at the back of the NFL with respects to QB rating before he played the Dolphins’ secondary. The Dolphins are second-last in the NFL with just 3 interceptions.

The Patriots are averaging 410.6 yards per game, 2nd behind the New Orleans Saints. They’re also scoring 29 points per game. The scariest thing is I think the Patriots’ offense is only hitting their full stride now. Brady and Brandin Cooks never looked better together against the Raiders. They were hitting deep routes, intermediate routes, and everything in between. Cooks hauled in 6 balls for 149 yards, including a pinpoint bomb for 64 yards.

The Pats will get their points, can Matt Moore and company keep up? If you talk to Jarvis Landry, he’ll tell you the Dolphins will not only win on Sunday, but win the next meeting against the Patriots, too. Moore had a terrible start against the Ravens, which started this four-game losing streak for the Dolphins. He did, however, play nice in relief of Cutler last week. Moore passed for 282 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs.

Don’t expect huge numbers against a red-hot Patriots’ defense. However, they still rank dead last in the NFL in passing yardage allowed per game. The Patriots were -17 favorites over the Dolphins back when the Patriots went undefeated in the regular season. I was confident with that pick, and still remember it pretty well to this day. The backdoor in this one looks like it could be wide open, though. The Pats should be able to hit in the high 30’s on the scoreboard. That will leave around 10 points for the Dolphins to score for there to be more than 47 points in total. I think we’re looking at a 38-17 game on Sunday in Foxborough. The OVER seems like it is worth a look.

PICK: OVER 47.5 (-110)

Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.