Hey everybody I hope you guys had a profitable Wild Card Weekend. I had zero Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb so you can imagine how it went for me. I guess that’s what I get for fading the Hail Mary king and for those that pivoted to Cobb before game time props to you. Needless to say my winnings plummeted once Cobb went off. Oh well, that happens. Looking back at my picks from the weekend, it was an up and down week for me. Of the four picks, Stills was the best of them scoring 13.2 DK points and costing just $3800 without a touchdown. Lamar Miller had an alright game even though he had 31 carries, scoring 13.3 DK points and his teammate C.J. Fiedorowicz struggled with just 5.5 DK points (probably more of a sign of his quarterback than himself). I was really high on Eli Manning last week and boy was I wrong. That Miami boat trip sure did a number on the Giants receivers am I right? The Texans defense tied to Seahawks for the highest score on the week and was solid with 10 DK points that could’ve been much more had Clowney stayed on his feet on his interception.
This week there are only 4 games on the slate so I’m going to give out my favorite play (that’s not insanely obvious) at each position.
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Here are the my favorite plays of the week:
SEA Russell Wilson ($6900) – The stud quarterbacks are going to be high owned ones this week. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan all figure to be the highest owned guys and all warrant your attention. Russell Wilson is one of my favorite plays outside of those guys as he’s playing in the Atlanta dome in the second highest scoring game on this slate at 51.5 points. At just $6900, rostering Russell allows you some more flexibility to pick the higher priced guys at the other positions. Wilson has been a stud the last four weeks being extremely efficient with 10 touchdowns and 1 interception in that span. Pairing Wilson with Baldwin, Kearse, Graham or Paul Richardson makes a ton of sense this week as it should be lower owned than the other stacks. Bringing it back with a Falcon or two should complement a strong correlated lineup.
Seattle finds a way to win these game and Atlanta finds a way to lose them, so don’t be shocked if Seattle steals one on the road once again. This would be a huge step for Atlanta as they’ve always come up just short. If there’s ever a chance they can take that next step, this is definitely it.
It looks like Ezekiel Elliott is going to be the highest owned running back at home versus the Packers in the highest implied o/u on the slate. It’ll also be interesting to see how people squeeze LeVeon Bell into their lineups. A few of the cheaper options I like this week are Dion Lewis and Spencer Ware.
ATL Devonta Freeman ($5900) – I like Devonta Freeman this week at just $5900 at home against the Seahawks. The matchup is scary at first mention, but the Falcons have the second highest team total this week behind the Patriots so they’re certainly expected to score some points this week at home. The Seahawks are a much different defense without Earl Thomas in the back end. Last week, Zach Zenner scored 14.8 DK points with 6 catches for 58 yards out of the backfield and with 5 and 8 targets for Devonta in the last two weeks, I expect him to be involved in the pass game again. Freeman has gone over 20 DK points in four of his last six games (the two he didn’t he was on the road). He’s the home running back as he’s gone over 20 DK points in his last 5 home games and has averaged an absurd 27.24 DK points in those games.
There are a lot of receivers I like this week including the studs of Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Doug Baldwin. A few of the cheaper guys I like this week are Geronimo Allison (assuming Jordy is out, which it looks that way), Paul Richardson, Jeremy Maclin and Taylor Gabriel.
DAL Dez Bryant ($6600) – At only $6600, Dez is the sixth highest priced WR this week, which was slightly surprising. He’s at home this week against a Packers secondary that has allowed seven 100 yard – receivers and two 200 – yard receivers this season. They rank 28th in pass defense DVOA against #1 receivers and have given up the second most DK points to receivers this season. Aka they’ve been torched all season long (except last week somehow. Again I’m attributing that to the Miami boat trip of course). Dez has had at least 16 DK points in five of his last seven games and should see near double digit targets again this week in the highest projected scoring game on the slate at 52 points.
GB Jared Cook ($3900) – Jared Cook is the chalk this week I think as the Cowboys are dead last in giving up points to tight ends this season and with Jordy Nelson likely out, those 10 targets have to go somewhere. Cook has seen 8, 5, 8 and 9 targets his last 4 weeks so I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 10 this week. He’s also flashed his upside in one game this season with 24.5 DK points in late November. It’ll be hard for guys to pay up for Graham and Kelce so most will end up here. I usually like to fade high owned tight ends because of the volatility, but it’ll be hard to get away from Cook this week with the matchup, recent performances and price.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($2900) – The Patriots are the only obvious play at defense this week. They’re facing the inept Brock Osweiler at home in what should be a blowout. The only problem is the $4000 price tag that’s extremely hard to fit in. The next highest priced defenses are the Chiefs and Seahawks who are both playing high powered offenses that are capable of scoring 40. That’s why I like the Steelers as my value defense this week even though they’re on the road. They’re playing the Chiefs in the lowest o/u on the week and we know the Chiefs like to play slow and methodical and don’t have that high powered of an offense. Although Alex Smith may not turn the ball over, they shouldn’t put up too high of a score on the Steelers this week. The Steelers have averaged 6.9 DK points on the road this year and have 9 sacks in their last two games. If you do fade the Patriots, let’s hope they don’t score two touchdowns, which certainly can happen.
Good luck this week guys!
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