How’s going everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for the divisional round of the playoffs . These are some of my favorite cheap plays that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512. Finally, this will be my last NFL post of the season and I would just like to thank everyone who read my posts this year! It was a fun ride and be sure to check out my DK picks for NBA and PGA.
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RB: Jay Ajayi: (4,600) After playing a small role with The Eagles in the beginning, Ajayi was used as offense’s main back in his last three games of the season. He sat out the regular season finale, but in the previous three games, he averaged 15.3 touches a game, which was 51.3% of the carries, including six red zone opportunities. The other Eagles’ backs, Legarrette Blount, Wendell Smallwood, and Corey Clement were all active for the Week 17 game vs The Cowboys, which is clearly a sign that they plan on featuring Ajayi in the postseason. Even though he has been dealing with a sore knee, he has been practicing in full this week, and he should be in line for 15-20 touches this Saturday vs The Falcons. In his last three games, he produced 0.73 DK points per touch and he will be taking on an Atlanta team that ranks 20th in rush DVOA.
The Eagles somewhat controlled Rams’ RB Todd Gurley last week (18.1 DK points), but they are still a unit that has some holes, allowing a league high 110 catches to backs this season and allowing a decent 23.5 DK points a game to opposing backfields. He was priced at $5,000 or more in his last two games of the regular season and $4,600 is a nice price for a back who has the chance to approach 20 touches. He is a solid play that should get us double digit DK points with upside if he can find the end zone and also should be one of the lower owned backs in GPPs. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
QB: Case Keenum: (6,100) As of right now, it seems like the general public wants to pay up for Tom Brady this weekend. There is obviously a ton of logic to this and I will be doing it in some lineups, but in GPPs, I think the best strategy will be to pay down at QB to differentiate yourself. Keenum, in his last three starts of the regular season, wasn’t very effective, only averaging 13.4 DK points, but he didn’t have to throw much at all in these games, averaging 26 attempts per game, with The Vikings winning by an average of 19 points during this span. This should be a much more competitive game setting with The Saints and their high powered offense coming into the dome. This game currently has a spread of five points, with the second highest O/U game total of the slate at 46.5 points. The Vikings currently hold the second highest implied team total at 25.75 points and in the last four games that The Vikings competed and was decided by ten points or less, Keenum averaged 24 DK points a game. I think this game has the potential to be a real shoot out and we should see Keenum throw 35+ passes in this huge game.
This Saints’ defense has improved so much this season (9th in pass DVOA), but as the season has gone on they have become more vulnerable. Cam Newton just dropped 28.66 DK points on them last week and they have been allowing the third most fantasy points per game to QBs since Week 15. (1.6 opponent +/-) The Fantasy Labs props tool currently has Keenum with an implied projection of 17.44 DK points, which is a solid score for his price. He could easily top 20+ DK points in this game, especially if at some point they are trailing, and I think Keenum is the best contrarian QB pick of the week, that should come with a decently low ownership in GPPs. (13-16% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) Also, the player I will be stacking him with is WR Adam Thielen. I think the world of Saints’ rookie QB Marshon Lattimore (89.8 PFF grade) and with him expected to spend most of his time on Stefon Diggs, Keenum should rely on Thielen out of the slot.
RB: Dion Lewis: (6,600) Yes, it may be hard to call Lewis a “sleeper”, but I don’t think his ownership will be as high as expected with this Pats’ backfield getting healthier this week. (currently 21-25% projected via Fantasy Labs) Both players are listed as questionable, but RB James White (ankle) sounds like he is going to make his return and RB Rex Burkhead (knee) also has a shot of playing this Saturday. For good reason, the DFS world is always scared about playing Pats’ RBs because when they have multiple healthy bodies and it’s hard to guess who will get the most volume. But even if White and Burkhead are both active, I think they still ride Lewis is in this important game. In the past, The Pats have usually ridden the hot hand in playoff games, and I just don’t see them not using Lewis like they have for the past month. He is the only truly healthy back they have and without question he has been their most effective player in this backfield this season, averaging close to a DK point per touch, at 0.99 DK points per touch.
After their Week 9 bye, which includes games with both Burkhead and White, and games without both backs, Lewis has scored double digit DK points in seven of his last eight games, at a 19.3 DK point average. He is averaging 18 touches per game in these past eight and I think we see him get close to 20 touches once again in this matchup vs The Titans. On paper, this matchup isn’t ideal with The Titans ranking 7th rush DVOA, but this is the playoffs and we are talking about The Patriots here, at home with bad weather, in a game that they have an implied team total of 30.75 points, and are favored by a large 13.5 points. There’s no doubt when they are draining the clock in this one it will be Lewis who will have the ball in his hands. At the moment, the props have him at a projection of 16.06 DK points, but I think we see him top 20 DK points in this game with a high ceiling, depending on how many times he can score. If both backs are active, I think his ownership will be under 20% in GPPs, which is a solid level for a slate of this size. If only one of them are healthy enough to suit up, his ownership will naturally rise, but either way, no matter what his ownership or who else is listed as active for this backfield, Lewis is my favorite RB play of the week, outside of the obvious top stud in Le’Veon Bell.
QB: Marcus Mariota and Blake Bortles.
RB: Jerrick McKinnon, Devonta Freeman, Alvin Kamara (this is a great time to get back on Kamara. His ownership is going to be lower than it usually is and he has been by far the more effective road player this season, averaging 20.8 DK PPG, compared to Ingram at 14.9), and Tevin Coleman.
WR: Adam Thielen (above), Tedd Ginn (could be busier than usual with Xavier Rhodes on Michael Thomas), Corey Davis, Rishard Matthews, Marquise Lee (should be healthier and operate as The Jags #1), Chris Hogan (if he plays), Brandin Cooks (like him more if Hogan is out), Alshon Jeffery, and Dede Westbrook.
TE: Vance McDonald (since coming back, him and Jesse James have essentially split the snaps), Marcedes Lewis (80% snaps last week), Josh Hill, and Zach Ertz.