For my final DraftKings NFL article of the year, I would like to welcome you to my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for The Divisional Round. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter @Hunta512.
RB: James White: (4,900)
While many will go to Sony Michel (13-16% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) with The Patriots as home favorites (NE -4), I prefer White at a similar cost. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) For Michel and his nonexistent receiving game (six catches this season, one in his last five) to produce a big day, The Pats need to win by close to double digits, which I am not expecting, with The Chargers playing so well right now. I do ultimately expect New England to win, but I think this game is going to be a fight from start to finish. White, is their primary pass catching back and he is without question, Bill Belichick’s most trusted weapon in this backfield. He closed out the season with two solid outings (15.5 DK PPG) and The Chargers have been stout on the ground (10th in rush DVOA), but have struggled with receiving backs like White. (23rd in DVOA vs passes to RBs)
This season, Los Angeles has given up the most receiving yards and the 4th most catches to RBs. They have a really strong group of CBs and with Josh Gordon gone from this Pats’ offense, on top of Rob Gronkowski really struggling to contribute, I could easily see Tom Brady relying on White in this divisional round home game. He found the end zone in each of the final regular season games this year and White has scored four TDs in last four Patriots’ home playoff games. White has a ceiling over 25 DK points this Sunday (25+ DK points four times this season), which is something most of the players under $5,000 in this slate don’t possess.
QB: Jared Goff: (5,500)
Goff had some of the most dramatic home/away splits in The NFL this season. He scored 28.1 DK PPG in Los Angeles, compared to 15.9 DK PPG on the road. Even if we don’t include his 40.12 outburst vs The Chiefs, Goff is still generating 10.4 more DK PPG at home this year. He clearly feels more comfortable in The Coliseum and The Cowboys are more vulnerable through the air (16th in pass DVOA), than on the ground. (5th in rush DVOA)
Plus, Dallas is a much weaker defense when they are on the road. They have only allowed 18.75 PPG in their past four home games, but 24.25 PPG in their last four away from AT&T Stadium. The Rams have the third highest implied team total of this Divisional Round slate (28.75 points) and Goff is only $5,500, while the other three QBs of the top four projected teams, all cost above $6,000. Goff is the best cheap QB of the weekend and I think a Rams’ stack, sans Todd Gurley, is a nice way to be contrarian in GPPs.
WR: Ted Ginn Jr.: (4,400)
Ginn (knee) has only played one game since being activated from The IR, but in that one game, he caught five of his eight targets, for 74 yards vs The Steelers. (12.4 DK points) In the first three games of the season, when Ginn was fully healthy, he was The Saints’ #2 WR, seeing 6.3 TPG, and scoring 2 two TDs. (13.6 DK PPG) HC Sean Payton and this coaching staff elected to rest him for Week 17, along with most of their key players, showing us that they believe Ginn is a key part to their playoff run.
So, with two weeks of rest in his corner, Ginn should be fully healthy, for this strong matchup vs The Eagles, who have given up the most catches in the league to WRs since Week 10. If The Eagles continue their heroics with Nick Foles at the helm, this game has the potential to be a real shootout, as the only indoor contest of this weekend’s four. (51 point O/U game total) Ginn has multiple TD upside and comes in at a very reasonable cost.
QB: Drew Brees and Tom Brady. (Brady is scoring 27.15 DK PPG in his last six postseason games and he is averaging 3.7 more DK PPG in Foxboro this season)
RB: Alvin Kamara (not a “sleeper”, but Kamara should have a lower ownership than Gurley/Elliot), Marlon Mack (this Colts’ offensive line is playing at an elite level right now, Mack is scoring 22.48 DK PPG in his last four, and The Chiefs are dead last in rush DVOA), and Nyheim Hines. (Hines laid an egg last week and only played nine snaps, but he should be more active this week, in this slate high 57 point O/U game total. Trust me, I know it’s hard to go back to him, but if Hines returns to the role he had prior to The Wildcard win over The Texans, he will end up being a nice value at this cheap price. He scored 8.8 DK PPG in the previous four and KC is 21st in DVOA vs passes to RBs)
WR: Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffrey, Dontrelle Inman (a TD and 16.2 DK PPG in these last three. He is one of Andrew Luck’s main weapons right now and The Chiefs ended the season allowing the 3rd most FPPG to WRs in the final three weeks), Mike Williams (always a TD threat and Keenan Allen should be getting all the attention from this Pats’ secondary. Plus, The Chargers are projected to be playing from behind), Josh Reynolds, Nelson Agholor (33.8 DK PPG in the final two regular season games and could see a few extra looks, with Marshon Lattimore covering Jeffrey), and Chris Hogan. (the range of outcome for Hogan has been very wide in these last two games without Gordon. In the first, Hogan saw zero targets, but in the next, he led the team with 11. So, there is obviously some uncertainty here, but we are talking about a Pats’ WR who is playing nearly all the snaps, at home, in the playoffs, and only costs $3,900)
TE: Zach Ertz (the numbers have been down, but they should be trailing, and this is a serious discount for Ertz. He was $6,700 just three weeks ago), Eric Ebron (KC is 25th in DVOA vs TEs and Ebron has the biggest advantage for a TE this weekend, according to PFF), and Gerald Everett. (at only $2,700, Everett looks like a steal. He is scoring 6.4 DK PPG in his last four and seeing a solid 5.25 TPG)
D: Rams and Colts.