Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Alex here, and below are my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for The Thanksgiving Day slate. Even if with only three games, there is still some injury news to watch, so, as always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
RB: Theo Riddick: (4,500)
Kerryon Johnson (knee) hasn’t practiced as of Wednesday and he isn’t expected to be available for this Thanksgiving day matchup vs The Bears. This leaves Riddick and LeGarrette Blount in the backfield for The Lions. Blount will get carries in the early down work, but he should be completely non existent in the passing game. Even if they start the game by giving him some work on the ground, there is a strong chance he does next to nothing vs this Bears’ rush defense. (only 2.3 YPA this season and The Bears are 1st in rush DVOA)
This should put the Lions in a position that they have no choice but to go back to being a pass heavy offense, with Riddick seeing a solid dose of volume out of the backfield, especially with Marvin Jones (knee) also not expected to play. As I just noted, The Bears are the best run defense in The NFL (4th least FPPG to RBs), but their strong d line has forced QBs to hit their pass catching RBs, like Riddick, at a decent rate this season. (13th most total catches allowed to RBs) He could possibly see double digit targets as The Lions play from behind (CHI -3.5) and Riddick, and his guaranteed volume, make him one of the better cheap gambles of this tiny slate.
QB: Colt McCoy: (4,700)
Without a doubt, McCoy will be the lowest owned QB on Thursday. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) It makes sense, he hasn’t started a game since 2014, but that is the kind of risk we need to take if we want to set ourselves apart. He looked decent in his return to the field this past Sunday, scoring 9.66 DK points in only 24 snaps vs The Texans. The former Longhorn only completed 50% of his attempts, but he threw for one TD, and was active as runner, carrying the ball five times for 35 yards.
His matchup vs The Cowboys sets up well for scrambling QBs, as they have allowed the second most total QB rushes this season. As 7.5 point underdogs, McCoy should run it at least five times and the opportunity will always be there through the air vs this Cowboys’ defense. (26th in pass DVOA) Call me crazy, but I think 20+ DK points is possible from McCoy in this spot. As his price reflects, he is the riskiest QB available, but his low cost can help us squeeze in three high end skill players. I only recommend having a few shares, but I think a McCoy to Jordan Reed stack is absolutely GPP viable.
WR: Anthony Miller: (4,400)
Taylor Gabriel is going to be chalky at only $3,700 (41-50% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but before his 13.9 DK point night vs The Vikings in Week 11, he was doing very little, while Miller was leading this offense in targets. From weeks 7-10, Gabriel was seeing a 14.3% target share vs Miller’s team high 20.6%. Including both their scores from this past Sunday night, Miller is averaging 13.3 DK PPG in their last five, to Gabriel’s 7.24 DK PPG, respectively.
Both have terrific individual matchups, with Darius Slay expected to shadow Allen Robinson, and I am not saying you shouldn’t roster Gabriel in anyway, I just think there is just a ton of possible leverage to gain here, by pivoting to Miller. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) As a slot WR, this is one of the best possible matchups he could ask for (Lions rank dead last in DVOA vs non-perimeter WRs) and the last time The Bears played The Lions, just two weeks ago, Miller produced a 5/122/1 line in a winning effort. (season best 26.2 DK points)
QB: Dak Prescott. (Prescott has scored over 20 DK points in three of his last five and has generated multiple TDs in four of those games. He is also at home, where he is scoring 4.4 more DK PPG this year. The Redskins have definitely buckled down as of late, allowing the 9th least FPPG to QBs over the last two weeks, but Dak is averaging 22.5 DK PPG in the 13 homes games that The Cowboys have had a Vegas total of 24 points or more)
RB: Marc Ingram and Tarik Cohen.
WR: Amari Cooper, Tre’Quan Smith (brought in 10/13 targets last week for 157 yards and a TD vs The Eagles. We have seen him flash big play potential before, with 29.1 DK points vs The Redskins in Week 5, and this Falcons’ secondary is just pitiful, ranking 29th in pass DVOA, and 21st vs #2 WRs), Cole Beasley, and Trey Quinn. (played 70% of the snaps last week and caught all of his targets for 49 yards. He ran 40 routes from the slot, putting him in a potential matchup vs CB Anthony Brown, who has a low 56.2 PFF grade)
TE: Trey Burton (The Lions are 29th in DVOA vs TEs and he should be far less owned than Austin Hooper and Jordan Reed) and Vernon Davis. (the best bare minimum TE option in my opinion. He has put up back to back zeros, but is still running 14.1 routes per game and The Cowboys have given up three TE TDs over their last three games)
D: Redskins (13.5 DK PPG in their past two and Prescott is the 4th most sacked QB this season) and Lions. (Mitchell Trubisky has a 4/3 TD to INT ratio on the road this season, compared to 16/6 at home. Plus, he is the leading QB rusher in The NFL, but The Lions have only allowed a league low, 57 total rushing yards to the position this season, including only two yards from Cam Newton last week. I am fond of some of his pass catchers, but I could see this being a multiple TO game from Trubisky)