gravatar

DraftKings NFL Week 10 Picks

Below are my favorite values for The DraftKings’ Week 10 Sunday main slate. There is only 11 games to target, but as always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 10 Sleeper Picks article, that will be posted towards the end of the week. @Hunta512.

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick: (5,900)

The Bucs didn’t win, but Fitzpatrick did his job in Week 9, throwing for 243 yards, four TDs, and two picks vs The Panthers (26.02 DK PPG) and he has already been the confirmed starter for this week. When he has started and finished the game this season, Fitzmagic has lived up to his nickname, throwing for an average of 368.25 yards and 3.75 TDS. (34.1 DK PPG) He has been priced at $6,000 or less in each of these games and is returning a crazy 6.3 average value. This Sunday, him and The Bucs sport an implied team total of 27.25 points vs The Redskins, who after a strong start, have slipped all the way to 25th in overall DVOA and 19th in pass DVOA.

Since Week 6, they have allowed the 5th most FPPG to QBs, after ranking 15th in their first five games. All of Fitzpatrick’s pass catchers are current healthy and he should continue his promising play in this great spot. The Bucs’ defense is so bad in their own right (32nd in DVOA), that no matter the opposing offense, every game seems to become a shootout. (O/U game total of 51.5 points) I am expecting at least the 300 yard bonus and a pair of TDs from Fitzpatrick, with a ceiling around 35-40 DK points. There are some cheaper viable options, but he is the best value at the position, that has safety and upside.

RB: Dion Lewis: (4,600)

In the first game after the bye, Lewis was a huge part of The Titans MNF victory over The Cowboys, with 19/62/0 rushing and 4/60/1 receiving. (22 DK points) There was some talk during their week off that Lewis was going to take on a bigger workload going forward, and this was absolutely true on Monday night, with him logging a season high 84.3% of the snaps. This week, he is in the perfect situation to play most of the snaps again, as a 6.5 point underdog vs The Pats. The Titans will be playing from behind for most of this game and not only should he lead this backfield in carries, but he will see all of the receiving work.

The Pats have been vulnerable against pass catching backs this season, ranking 25th in DVOA when defending the pass to RBs. They have given up the second most total receiving yards and the fifth most catches to the position.  (6.4 CPG and 61.1 YPG) To top it all off, The Pats are Lewis’s former team. There isn’t any bad blood, but he is obviously looking forward to showing them that they made a mistake by letting him walk this past summer. With almost everything in his favor, Lewis seems like a priority at only $4,600.

WR: Tyler Boyd: (7,500)

Boyd was already having a stellar season (18.8 DK PPG), but his numbers should rise even more, with A.J. Green (toe) out at least two games. Green led this team in targets (26.2%) and with Tyler Eifert (leg) also gone from this offense, Boyd is in line for 10+ targets vs The Saints in Week 10. This matchup vs Marshon Lattimore and this secondary has been outstanding for #1 WRs. After being an extremely tough matchup last season (5th in pass DVOA and 6th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), The Saints have been the complete opposite in 2018. (29th in pass DVOA and dead last in DVOA vs #1 WRs)

Some are going to say that Boyd has only been productive because most defenses put all their attention on Green, but the bottom line is that he is an elite talent that can absolutely handle a number one role in an offense. The Bengals used a 2nd round pick on him in 2016 for a reason and this season, he has been extremely efficient, scoring 2.3 DK points per target and ranking as PPF’s 10th highest graded WR. In this matchup and game environment (highest O/U game total of the slate at 53 points), Boyd has a chance at being the highest scoring WR of the main slate.

TE: Trey Burton: (3,900)

More so than usual, TE is a very thin position. You can always pay up for the safety of Travis Kelce, but in a difficult matchup vs The Cardinals (3rd in DVOA vs TEs), it seems like a better week to pay down, leading me to Burton, who is only $3,900 and is in a positive matchup vs The Lions. (30th in DVOA vs TEs) The Bears are 6.5 point home favorites, but they have been susceptible to pass first offenses this season.

I could see The Lions staying alive for most of this game and Mitch Trubiksy should have to throw it a decent amount. If we look at his game log, Burton has been very solid when the game is close. In the five Bears’ games that have been decided by single digit points, he has scored 13.42 DK PPG. Burton lacks slate breaking upside, but he should exceed three times value this week. At this low price tag, which is tied for his lowest salary of the season, Burton is my favorite TE value of Week 10.

Also Consider:

QB: Jared Goff (30.2 DK PPG at home this season) and Marcus Mariota. (Mariota looked healthy off the bye, scoring 24.8 DK points in the road win over The Cowboys. If we disregard Week 1 vs The Dolphins, when he hurt his elbow and only threw it 16 times, Mariota has been solid vs weaker defenses. He has played three defenses that have ranked in the top ten in DVOA, but in other three games, when he faced DAL, LAC, and PHI, Mariota is averaging 24.1 DK PPG. The Pats’ present the 19th worst pass defense in The NFL and as a 6.5 point underdog, Mariota should throw it over 30 times and come close to 20 DK points)

RB: Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon (The Raiders are 30th in overall DVOA and 25th in rush DVOA. In the two career games Gordon has played with a double digit point spread in his favor, he is producing 24.25 DK PPG), Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Joe Mixon, and Mike Davis. (only if Chris Carson is out. He hasn’t practiced as of Wednesday and in his absence last week, Davis scored 17.7 DK points vs The Chargers, while playing 73% of the snaps. No matter the game flow, Davis would project for close to 20 touches sans Carson)

WR: Michael Thomas (if this game can come close to it’s 5.5 point spread, Thomas should smash again. In the four games The Saints have won by single digits, Thomas has put up an excellent 29.9 DK PPG. Furthermore, over their last three games, The Bengals have given up the second most FPPG to WRs and he has the second biggest advantage for a WR this week, according to PFF), Davante Adams (The Dolphins are 23rd in pass DVOA and 21st in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Cooper Kupp, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS is now Aaron Rodgers’ #2 option with Geronimo Allison on IR. Allison missed their last game and MVS caught 3/6 targets for 101 yards. In the three games he has played over 80% of the snaps, he has put up 17.4 DK PPG. At $5,000, MVS is a strong target in all formats), Corey Davis (they will be playing catch up and The Pats rank 22nd in DVOA vs #1 WRs), and Adam Humphries (21.75 DK PPG in these last two with Fitzpatrick playing most of the downs and The Redskins have ranked 26th vs WRs over their last four).

TE: Travis Kelce (like I said, this is a tough spot and I’d rather punt the position, but Kelce is basically matchup proof with Mahomes under center), Jack Doyle, Jordan Reed (The Bucs are the worst defense in the league. They are dead last in overall DVOA, second to last in pass DVOA, and third worst vs TEs. If Reed doesn’t put up a respectable line vs this defense, he is never going to this season), and Austin Hooper.

D: Chargers, Chiefs, Jets, and Rams. (only 2,400 and at home coming off their first loss of the year. Russell Wilson hasn’t been turning it over much this season, but he is always good for a few sacks).

PLAY THIS LINEUP

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.