Below are my DraftKings Sleeper Picks for the Week 10 Sunday main slate. If you looking for cash game plays, be sure to read my first article for Week 10, via this link. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
TE: Rob Gronkowski: (5,600)
Gronk didn’t play last week, due to ankle and back injuries, but he has practiced on a limited basis this week, and is trending towards being available for this Sunday vs The Titans. Without question, Gronkowski has had a down season (11.7 DK PPG), but he is still the #1 or #2 TE threat in all of football. He can explode at any given time and with TE seriously lacking options in this main slate, he seems like the best tournament target at a career low price. Yes, you read that right, this is the lowest Gronk has ever been priced in the history of DraftKings. Furthermore, his matchup vs The Titans may look awful at a first glance (least FPPG to TEs), but they have only really faced one legitimate TE all season long.
Outside of Zach Ertz in Week 4, The Titans have played The Dolphins, Texans, Jaguars, Bills, Ravens, Chargers, and Cowboys. All teams that don’t feature one main pass catching TE. In that Week 4 matchup. Ertz torched them, catching 10/14 targets for a team high 112 yards. (24.2 DK points) If Gronk is a full go, off a week off, he should be able to expose this defense, that ranks 27th in DVOA vs passes down the middle of the field. Finally, he had a Gronk like game against them last season, catching 6/9 targets for 81 yards a TD. (20.1 DK points) There is obviously plenty of risk here, with the injuries and The Pats expected to be at full strength (Sony Michel expected to be back), but the ceiling Gronk presents, at this low of a cost, and ownership (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), is something I think is worth having at least one share of this week. (assuming he is active. This game kicks off at 1:00 PM EST) UPDATE: Unfortunately, Gronk isn’t expected to play on Sunday. Make sure he is out of your lineups. This brings more targets to Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, and James White, helping all of their value.
WR: Mike Evans: (7,000)
Evans should bounce back in a big way this weekend vs The Redskins. Josh Norman and all, this secondary has fell fast since it’s solid start, allowing the most FPPG to WRs since Week 5. They currently rank 18th in DVOA vs #1 WRs, after ranking 5th just a year ago. Julio Jones just lit them up for 28.1 DK points last week, including his first TD of the season, which was the 7th WR TD allowed by Washington in their last five games.
The Bucs currently have an implied team total of 27 points, which is a number that has actually gone up 0.8 since the opening lines. In Evans’ last seven games Vegas gave The Bucs a team total of 25 points or more, he is averaging 21 DK PPG and in the last two of those contests that were in Tampa, he has been even better, with 24.7 DK PPG. He should find the endzone and I am expecting a minimum of 20 DK points from Evans this Sunday.
QB: Blake Bortles: (4,900)
Off the bye, Bortles and The Jags’ passing attack are in a prime position vs The Colts, who are 25th in pass DVOA. Their allowed FPPG for QBs hasn’t reflected this (12th most this season) but they have played the likes of Derek Carr, Derek Anderson, and Sam Darnold the last three weeks. Bortles is no stud, but he is a serviceable QB, who has can shine in positive matchups. Plus, the week off, has given him time to heal his hurting shoulder.
This Colts’ defense is currently an opponent +/- of 5.6 points. In the five games Bortles has gone against a defense, that is 5.0 points or up, he is averaging 21.4 DK PPG. Also, for his career, he is scoring 21.1 DK PPG vs Indy. Anything can happen with a healthy offense coming off a bye (Leonard Fournette will play) and with The Jags expected to be trailing (IND -3), Bortles should be airing it out and could surprise with a 25-30 DK point game. Going with a naked Bortles in GPPs seems like the most ideal way to attack (0-1% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but if you want to be super contrarian, I think Donte Moncrief going against CB Nate Harrison (47.8 PFF grade), is the best player to pair him with.
QB: Patrick Mahomes (in a week to pay down, Mahomes should be under owned. The matchup vs The Cardinals seems tough, ranking 8th in overall DVOA, but Mahomes is your current MVP, who always has the best chance of being the highest scoring player at the position) and Matt Ryan (like him better if Denzel Ward is out. This would make it a much easier matchup for Julio, creating a nice GPP stack)
RB: James White, Marc Ingram, and Duke Johnson (with a new OC running things, Johnson blew up for a season best 29.6 DK points vs The Chiefs. The snap count didn’t rise, but Johnson was used more, seeing a team high nine targets. This week, he goes against The Falcons, who rank 28th in pass DVOA and have allowed the most total catches to RBs)
WR: Brandin Cooks, Josh Gordon (The Titans are the second worst defense at defending #1 WRS and Gordon is coming off his best game as a Pat), Jarvis Landry (The Falcons are 30th in DVOA vs #1 WRs and Landry could see sizable bump in volume if David Njoku was out), Marvin Jones (he has the best matchup for a Lions’ WR and has seen eight and ten targets in the last two games. With Golden Tate traded, Jones should again lead the offense in targets), Allen Robinson (hasn’t played in two weeks and should be ready to go vs The Lions, who will be without their top CB Darius Slay), Donte Moncrief, and Maurice Harris. (if Jamison Crowder is out again. Last week, in his absence, Harris caught 10/12 targets for 124 yards vs The Falcons. This is even a better spot vs The Bucs, who are 31st in pass DVOA)
TE: O.J. Howard (price is up, but that should keep the ownership decently low. He is averaging 16.5 DK PPG in his last four and The Redskins are now 19th in pass DVOA) and Nick Vannett (went 8/52/1 last week vs The Chargers and The Seahawks are 10 point underdogs vs The Rams. They have been strong vs TEs, ranking 5th in DVOA vs the position, but he should catch a few balls, which is plenty at only $2,700)
D: Packers and Bears.