What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 10. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the main slate that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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RB: Rod Smith: (3,400) The never ending Ezekiel Elliot saga continued this Thursday, and Zeke’s suspension has been reinstated and he is expected to miss Week 10. This now leaves Alfred Morris as the starter with Rod Smith playing as the #2 back handling most of the third downs. Smith is the more gifted receiver and it has already been reported from Jon Machota of The Dallas times, that Smith will be “a significant part of the game plan”. Smith is a third year player from Ohio State. He showed some flashes this preseason, totaling in 187 scrimmage yards, while averaging 5.6 yards per touch. With a healthy and non-suspended Elliot in this backfield, Smith has seen limited playing time during the regular season, but in the Week 7, Smith was used in the fourth quarter, when The Cowboys were killing The Niners. In only 13 snaps of work, Smith gained 61 yards rushing on eight touches (7.6 y/c), while also chipping in with one catch for five yards. (7.6 DK points)
It obviously is just one game, but in this limited work, he produced 0.6 DK points per snap, and he will most certainly be playing more than 13 snaps this coming Sunday vs The Falcons, who rank 29th in rush DVOA. Not only do they struggle as a whole against RBs (9th most DK points to the positions), but they have been very vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing the 3rd most receptions and targets to the position. The “significant part of the game plan” quote really bodes well for his usage, and I think Smith could get close to 15 touches in this game, especially if The Cowboys end up trailing on the road (-3 ATL), which would create some check down situations for Smith. I am not going to sit here and tell you that there is no risk in this play, but at this low of a price tag, in DraftKings full PPR scoring, Smith seems like a decent punt that helps you gain more exposure to the main slate’s best game environment. (49.5 O/U)
QB: Eli Manning: (5,100) Eli and The Giants have been abysmal recently, but in his defense, since his 27 DK point outburst vs The Bucs in Week 4, he has faced some tough passing defenses, in the Chargers, Broncos, Seahawks, and Rams over his last four games. Now, he finally is in a great spot, taking on The Niners, who rank 27th in DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA. So far this season, even when including some blowouts that didn’t force the opposing QB to throw much, this defense is allowing QBs to score 21.17 DK points a game, which is 2.97 point opponent +/-. On top of being a weak defense, The Niners are letting their opponents log an average of 70.4 offensive plays a game, which is the highest mark in the league.
I know Manning doesn’t have OBJ, but he does have some decent weapons in this offense, with excellent rookie TE Evan Engram, and WR Sterling Sheppard who is finally healthy. Eli should be able to move the ball very easily vs this defense and Vegas is giving The Giants a solid implied team total of 22 points, which is a 1.5 point increase from when the opening line. It’s hard not envisioning Manning having his most productive game since Week 4, and I think he is a fine GPP play, that can be stacked with either Sheppard or Engram.
TE: Garrett Celek: (2,500) Niners starting TE George Kittle suffered a leg injury last week, and has already been ruled out for this Sunday. The veteran Celek will start and should see most of the snaps this week. The Niners still are holding out on letting newly acquired QB Jimmy Garopollo play, so C.J. Beathard will get another start, which isn’t that bad of news for Celek, as Beathard has targeted a TE 18.5% of the time during his four starts. Playing as the featured TE, Celek couldn’t ask for a better matchup than the one he is getting vs The Giants.
They have been terrible at covering TEs this season, allowing 18 DK points a game to the position, which includes a league high eight TDs. He should see 5+ targets in this game and most likely one or two rezone looks, as Beathard has shelled out six redzone targets to TEs in his four starts. At his $2,500 price, we only need a few catches out Celek, and if he scores, which is for sure a possibility vs this defense, he will end up being one of the best point per dollar plays of the week. (0-1% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh McCown, Andy Dalton, and C.J. Beathard.
RB: Duke Johnson Jr., Orleans Darkwa, Marlon Mack, Joe Mixon (Jeremy Hill is out and has landed on IR), and Devonta Freeman (the cheapest he has been this season).
WR: Sterling Sheppard, Mohamed Sanu, Corey Davis, Robby Anderson, Marqise Lee, Sammy Watkins, Adam Humphries, Marquise Goodwin, and T.Y. Hilton (he is questionable due to a groin. If he was out Donte Moncrief would become the #1 WR by default, and a punt play to be considered)
TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Kyle Rudolph, Hunter Henry, O.J. Howard, and Charles Clay.
D: Jags, Bears, and Jets.