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DraftKings NFL Week 11 Picks

It’s already Week 11 and below are my favorite values for the DraftKings’ main Sunday Slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 11 Sleeper Picks article, that will be posted towards the end of the week. @Hunta512.

QB: Deshaun Watson: (5,600)

Fresh off the bye, Watson comes in at $5,600, which is only the second time this season he has been priced under $6,000. He is facing The Redskins, who have slipped to 17th in pass DVOA and 25th in overall DVOA. If we look over Watson’s game log, he has been excellent outside starts vs The Bills and Jags, who both rank inside the top ten in DVOA.

The Redskins have allowed the 6th most FPPG to QBs since Week 6 and they rating as a high opponent +/- of 6.8 points. In the five career games Watson has faced an positive opponent +/-, he is averaging 25.3 DK PPG. Plus, Washington has been susceptible to scrambling QBs, allowing the 4th most total rushes to the position. With a week of rest in his corner and all his weapons at full strength (Keke Coutee is expected to be a full go after missing two games), Watson should have no issues generating four to fives time value.

RB: Saquon Barkely: (8,700)

Barkley is a dream spot this week vs The Bucs. He has been a consistent workhorse all season long, averaging 24.8 DK PPG on 21.8 TPG, and he should eat this defense alive. So far this season,  The Bucs rank 31st in overall DVOA, 30th in pass DVOA, 21st in rush DVOA, and 26th in DVOA when defending passes to RBs. They are allowing a league 32.3 PPG and The Giants currently have the second highest implied team total of the main slate. (27 points)

Plus, this is the first time they have been favorited at home. (-2) Barkley is always extremely active in the passing game (6.8 CPG), creating a rock solid floor in full PPR, and with the potential of 20-25 touches on the ground, Barkley is one of the best values at the position, regardless of being the second highest priced back of the slate. Due to the matchup, almost every Giant is in play, but Barkley is the by far the best way to get exposure to their season high team total.

WR: Corey Davis: (5,600)

As he should be, Davis has been The Titans’ main offensive weapon since their bye week. He has seen 10 targets in each of these last two games and is coming off a 7/125/1 performance vs The Pats. (28.5 DK points) The week before, he was slowed down a bit vs The Cowboys, 6/56/0 (12 DK points), but Marcus Mariota missed him for a wide open TD in The MNF win. His 20 total targets in these two, have put Davis at an insane 39.2% target share, which is the second highest in The NFL since Week 8.

Riding a two game winning streak, The Titans head to Indy, to face The Colts, who rank 27th in pass DVOA and 29th in DVOA vs #1 WRs. They also play at a face pace, with their opponents running 65.8 plays per game. (6th most in the league) This game has the 4th highest total of the main slate (49 points) and Davis will likely see 10 or more targets. It’s hard to find that kind of volume at a reasonable cost and Davis should produce value again, in this prime matchup.

TE: Zach Ertz: (6,600)

In another very ugly slate for TEs, I think locking in Ertz at a reasonable cost is the best move for cash games. Even after a 14/145/2 showing vs The Cowboys (43.5 DK points), Ertz’s price hasn’t been adjusted in anyway. He has been the #1 fantasy TE this season (21.8 DK PPG), leading the position in catches, targets, and yards. This Sunday, him and The Eagles head to The Super Dome, to face the red hot Saints.

This anticipated matchup between the defending Super Bowl champs and arguably the current favorites to win it all, has the highest O/U game total of the main slate. (56 points) The Eagles are expected to be playing catch up for most of this game (NO -8), which should lead to Carson Wentz force feeding Ertz. The Saints rank 5th in DVOA vs TEs, but they yet to face a feature TE like Ertz and they rank 18th in DVOA when defending middle of the field passes. In this potential shootout, Ertz has a great chance of approaching ten catches and cracking the 100 yard bonus.

Also Consider:

QB: Cam Newton (The Lions are now 31st in pass DVOA), Drew Brees, Carson Wentz (The Saints are 28th in pass DVOA and he should approach 50 attempts in The Super Dome), and Eli Manning. (as stated, The Bucs are a horrible defensive team. The Giants aren’t far behind, ranking 25th in overall DVOA and this game should be very back and forth. Despite how bad he looks, Manning should get over 20 DK points)

RB: Ezekiel Elliot (The Falcons have been the best matchup for backs this season. Almost every featured back they have faced, has produced, due to them allowing RBs to catch so many passes. They have allowed the most receptions to RBs and rank dead last in overall DVOA. It would be better if Zeke was at home, but nonetheless, he is right behind Barkley in value and projection), Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, David Johnson (is averaging 24 TPG since the change at OC. Last week vs The Chiefs, he notched 185 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one through the air, and one on the ground. Now, he is a five point home favorite, going against The Raiders, who are 30th in overall DVOA and 23rd in rush DVOA. Overall, for his career, DJ is averaging 19.5 DK PPG when a home favorite), and Dion Lewis (let me down last week, with only 8.8 DK points, but he still touched the ball 22 times and logged 75% of the snaps. They are clearly running their offense around Lewis/Davis right now and even though The Colts rank 9th in rush DVOA, they rank 28th in DVOA when defending passes to RBs. Similar to Davis, Lewis is just too cheap for the opportunities he will see, in a strong game environment)

WR: Michael Thomas, Julio Jones (maybe all Jones needed was a week of rest, because he has now scored in back to back games following their bye, after not a single TD in the first seven games. The Cowboys are tough on #1 WRs, but over the last three seasons, Jones is scoring 21.5 DK PPG in home games that have had an O/U game total over 45 points), Odell Beckham Jr. (26.4 DK PPG in his last three and The Bucs are 26th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper (eight and ten target in his first two as a Cowboy and The Falcons are 30th in DVOA vs #1 WRs. They have allowed 14 TDs to WRs this season and Cooper has seen six red zone targets since joining Dallas), and Branon Lafell/Seth Roberts. (Martavis Bryant wasn’t playing as much as expected, but he is now out and Jordy Nelson is also trending towards sitting out this game. This would put Lafell and Roberts as the top WR options. Lafell has the better upside, but Roberts has the better matchup, as he would mostly avoid Patrick Peterson. Either way, this a really tough spot, with The Cardinals ranking 5th in pass DVOA, and both of these players are really only desperation punts, that could possibly get you 10 DK points)

TE: Austin Hooper (The Cowboys are at their weakest down the middle, ranking 24th in DVOA vs TEs and 26th vs middle of the field passes) and Ricky Seals-Jones (RSJ has played 68% of the snaps since their bye and saw nine targets last week. I do worry about The Cardinals not having to throw much, but RSJ could get it done in limited work, with The Raiders being dead last in DVOA against TEs)

D: Ravens, Cardinals (they are the 5th best defense, at home, facing a Raiders team that has basically thrown in the towel this season, hence their slate low implied team total, of 18 points. At only $3,100, The Cards are a plug in play for cash games), and Giants. (Ryan Fitzpatrick is always good for at least one pick a game. The Giants are a weak unit in their own right, but they should get positive DK points at home)

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