What’s up guys. Alex here, and these are my favorite GPP plays for The DraftKings Week 11 Sunday Main Slate. If you looking for cash game plays, be sure to read my first article for Week 11, via this link. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
RB: James Conner: (7,200)
With everyone all over Saquon Barkley and David Johnson, Conner should go under the radar this Sunday. He got concussed in their last game (14.3 DK points vs The Panthers) and only played 41% of the snaps, but Conner has cleared protocol, practiced all week, and has been confirmed to be playing this Sunday vs The Jags. Prior to exiting in the loss to Carolina, Conner was unstoppable, scoring 35.7 DK PPG in his last four starts. During this span, he was in there for 82% of the snaps and garnering an elite 27 touches a game. He will get right back into this workhorse role vs The Jags, who have after a hot start, have allowed teams to score 28.6 PPG over their last five.
They still rank 5th in overall DVOA, but the last time Conner played a defense with this kind of rank, he produced 32.3 DK points vs The Ravens. (6th in DVOA) This was a similar situation to what we have in Week 11 and in that game, Conner only had ownership of 7.2% in The Millionaire Maker, but was the 5th highest scoring back of the week. Vegas isn’t ignoring The Jags current defensive woes and even with them on the road, The Steelers are favored by five points and currently possess an implied team total of 26 points. Conner should remind everyone that he is still one of the elite fantasy players in football and this is an opportune time to take advantage of him, at a depressed ownership and price.
TE: Evan Engram: (4,100)
The Giants are an obvious team to stack this week vs The Bucs (31st in DVOA), but I think Engram will end up being a forgotten man. This shouldn’t be the case though, with minimal cheap options at a weak TE position. Over the last two games, Engram has been getting more involved, seeing nine and five targets. His snap rate has stayed high (80%) and this could easily be the week he pops off, facing this Bucs’ secondary that ranks 30th in pass DVOA and 28th in DVOA vs TEs.
Bucs’ safety Jordan Whitehead has been soft this season (51.3 PFF grade) and he is five inches shorter and weighs 42 pounds less than Engram. This is clearly a matchup he should expose and if this games becomes a shootout (52.5 O/U game total), Engram could generate his highest DK score of the season. With a 5-8% projected ownership in large GPPs (via Fantasy Labs), Engram is one of the better TE dart throws of the week.
QB: Matt Ryan: (6,100)
There hasn’t been much talk about it, because their poor defense has dragged them to a 4-5 record, but Ryan has been lights out this season. He is averaging 26.8 DK PPG and has thrown for over 300 yards in six of his last seven and has passed for multiple TDs in six of his past eight. This week, he will be at home, where he has averaged 32 DK PPG this season, taking on The Cowboys, who are 27th in pass DVOA.
QBs are completing 72.6% of their passes and have posted a 4/1 TD-INT ratio vs them over the last two weeks. The Falcons currently sit with an implied team total of 26 points and in the four previous home games they were projected to score over 25 points, Ryan was brilliant, with 32.04 DK PPG. With most of the focus on The Saints vs Eagles matchup, I think Ryan may come with a sub ten percent ownership in GPPs.
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (the TDs may have not been there, but Fitz still completed 70% of his attempts last week and threw for over 400 yards vs The Redskins. Assuming he doesn’t get picked off five times and benched, Fitzpatrick should bounce back with a multiple TD showing, vs The Giants, who are 25th in pass DVOA) and Lamar Jackson. (only if he starts for Joe Flacco. His ability as a thrower is questionable, but he could easily achieve value just with his legs. Including preseason, Jackson is averaging 5.21 YPC and 0.34 DK points per snap. The Bengals are 28th in overall DVOA and 30th in rush DVOA. If we get confirmation that he is starting and will log most of the snaps, naked Jackson will be viable in GPPs, if you want load up on high end skill players)
RB: Leonard Fournette, Marc Ingram, and Theo Riddick. (caught 6/7 targets for 60 yards last week vs The Bears and could be active in the passing game again, with Marvin Jones expected to be out. The Panthers rank 15th in DVOA vs passes to RBs and 25th against short passes)
WR: Deandre Hopkins (nice price tag for Nuke and The Redskins rank 19th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Antonio Brown (scoring 25.8 DK PPG vs The Jags and like I said above, they have fell off, allowing 28.6 PPG over their last five), Alshon Jeffrey (quiet recently, but The Saints are still 31st in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Kenny Golladay (have to expect the volume to hit a peak, with Jones and Golden Tate not in this offense), Chris Godwin, and TJ Jones (should start with Jones out. Can’t expect much, but The Panthers are 20th in DVOA vs #2 WRs, compared to being 3rd vs #1 WRs. So, it may not work just forcing it to Golladay, which could have Jones fall into a handful of catches)
TE: Jeff Heuerman (has scored in two straight and just caught 10/11 targets last for 83 yards, which are all season highs, however, The Chargers rank 1st in DVOA vs TEs. But, their corners are so strong on the outside right now, that there is a chance Heuerman can do some work down the middle, hence their current opponent +/- of 4.6 points for starting TEs) and Jonnu Smith. (Smith has caught all of his targets and has scored in each of his last two games. The volume won’t ever be high, but he could find the end zone again, with The Cotls ranking 25th in DVOA against TEs)
D: Chargers (13 DK points in each of their last two and at home), Steelers, and Bengals. (I like Lamar Jackson as a runner, but like I said above, his passing is very suspect)