What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 11. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the main slate that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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TE: Tyler Kroft: (2,900) DraftKings is usually on point with pricing players correctly when they are in strong matchups, but they got Kroft’s salary completely wrong this week vs The Broncos. He had a down game last week vs The Titans (1.4 DK points), but there is no chance his price should have dropped $700 all the way down to $2,900, when you considered he is facing the defense that has given up the most DK points to TEs this season. This Bronco defense may possess two elite corners, but they have been weak down the middle, allowing opposing TEs to average six catches, 83 yards, and 0.7 TDs a game, which is an average of 18.7 DK points a game.
He may have posted a dud last week, but he didn’t miss a single snap in this game, saw a healthy six targets, and has been playing 94.3% of the snaps since Tyler Eifert went down. (back) The game flow should be in his favor, with The Bengals three point underdogs,which should force QB Andy Dalton to throw 35-40 times. I am projecting 5+ targets for Kroft, and I think he has a really good chance of putting up 10+ DK points in this spot. His ownership is expected to be low (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), and I like playing Kroft with the stud TE pick of the week, Travis Kelce, who we all know is playing the hopeless Giants, who have remarkably allowed a TE to score in every single game this year.
RB: Jordan Howard: (6,200) There are numerous things I like about Howard this week. The Bears are three point home underdogs vs The Lions, and you might think that’s a downgrade for Howard, but it has been the complete opposite over the last two seasons. Obviously, there have been more instances he was a dog, but the splits have been rather dramatic, as he is averaging 7.7 more DK points a game when The Bears aren’t the favorites. Plus, he has averaged 17.4 DK points at home over the last two years, which is a 4.87 DK point differential from when he is on the road. Earlier this season, it seemed like this back field was becoming close to a split between Howard and Tarik Cohen, but Cohen’s role has slowly decreased and Howard’s role has grown over their last five games, with Howard leading the way with 65% of the snaps to Cohen’s low 27%.
On top of all these trends, the matchup is great for him vs this Lions defense, that has surrendered the 5th most DK points to opposing backfields this season, at 26.2 DK points a game. He is averaging 21 touches in his past three starts, and he should another 20+ vs this vulnerable defense that is allowing backs to gain 4.24 yard a carry since Week 8. He has multiple TD upside every time he suits up and I think Howard is the perfect tournament target, because he should come with single digit ownership in GPPS, after he let down a ton of people in Week 10. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
QB: Jay Cutler: (5,400) Since The Dolphin’s traded RB Jay Ajayi to The Eagles, they have been a much more pass heavy offense. For the season, Miami has run a passing play 62% of the time, but in these last two games they have been throwing it more at an average of 69.5%, with Cutler averaging 39.5 attempts a game. In his first game without Ajayi, Cutler put up 27.44 DK points on a weak Raiders defense, and this past Monday night, he salvaged a solid 15.42 DK points vs The Panthers, who are a top ten defense in pass DVOA this season. Now this week, he gets friendly match-up that he could possibly expose like he did with The Raiders, in The Bucs, who rank 28th in pass DVOA, 30th in overall DVOA, and have given up 20.1 DK points a game to opposing QBs. (1.3 opponent +/-)
Don’t get me wrong, The Dolphins have been bad, but Cutler has thrown multiple TDs in four straight games, and they are back at home in Miami. As of right now, it seems like paying up at QB is going to be the most common way of building a lineup for DK’s main slate. Punting at the position should instantly set you apart in GPPs, and Cutler seems like one of the better cheap options based on the volume he should see vs this bad defense.
QB: Blaine Gabbert (He has the best matchup for any QB in the main slate vs this Texans defense that has been god awful recently, rating at a high current opponent +/- of 7.8 points. Gabbert is no prize, but his tendencies to take off and run help him as a fantasy player, especially vs this Texans defense that has seen QBs rush 5.5 times a game on them over their last four. Gabbert averaged 6.6 rushes a game in his six starts as a Niner last year), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blake Bortles, and Eli Manning.
RB: Joe Mixon, Chris Thompson (should see a few more carries with Kelley on IR. In the other games Kelley missed this season, Thompson was tremendous averaging 27.3 DK points a game. This match-up vs The Saints is very tough, but The Redskins are 7.5 point underdogs, and Thompson may end up being very active catching passes out of the backfield), Duke Johnson Jr. (off the bye week, Johnson played 59.3% of the snaps last week), Doug Martin, Jamaal Williams (assuming both Montgomery and Jones are out), and James White.
WR: Jeremy Maclin (great match-up vs Packers CB Demarious Randall who has a low PFF grade of 39.8), Kenny Stills, Amari Cooper, and Jarvis Landry.
TE: Ben Watson, Evan Engram, and Vernon Davis (if Jordan Reed is out).
D: Cardinals, Packers, Bengals, Saints, and Pats.