Welcome back people. Alex here, and below are my favorite values for the Week 12 DraftKings’ main Sunday Slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 12 Sleeper Picks article, that will be posted towards the end of the week. @Hunta512.
QB: Jameis Winston: (6,000)
Winston will start this Sunday vs The Niners. In less than half the snaps last week, after taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Winston threw for 199 yards, two TDS, and one pick vs The Giants. (16.56 DK points) He also has been benched before this season, but Winston has been very successful as a fantasy player when he starts and completes a game. (30.9 DK PPG) He should avoid being benched in this matchup vs The Niners, which is a defense that has only picked off two total passes this season. (2nd least in The NFL)
Furthermore, they are 21st in pass DVOA and 30th in deep pass DVOA, which sets up perfectly Winston. The Bucs are at home, have the third highest implied team total (28.25 points), and this game has the highest O/U game total of the main slate. (53.5 points) Winston should throw for over 300 yards and contribute multiple TDs, making him a no brainer value at only $6,000.
RB: Marlon Mack: (5,500)
Mack has been The Colts lead runner since returning from the foot injury, averaging 18.4 touches per game over the last five weeks. (19.8 DK PPG) He is gaining 5.2 YPA during this time and he now gets a gorgeous matchup vs The Dolphins this Sunday. (21st in rush DVOA) They have been dreadful at defending the run all season long, especially in their past two games, allowing a high 5.97 YPA and two rushing TDs. (3rd most FPPG to RBs)
The Dolphins are a bad team and their tendencies to being playing from behind have led them to them to allowing the third most total rushes this season. As expected, The Colts are heavy home favorites (-7.5) and in the four games that Indy has been favored since Mack’s return in Week 6, he has supplied a healthy 22.13 DK PPG, including two 30+ DK point performances vs The Bills and Raiders. In 20-25 touches, Mack should record his third 100+ yard rushing game of the season.
WR: D.J. Moore: (4,600)
Moore went off last week vs The Lions, catching 7/8 targets for 157 yards and a TD. (31.7 DK points) He tied Christian McCaffrey for the most targets on The Panthers and he should see some high volume again, with Devin Funchess (back) doubtful and Torrey Smith (knee) questionable. Even if Smith plays, Moore will be the #1 WR sans Funchess.
He will be leaving behind a 21.3% target for this offense and you have to expect 7-10 targets for Moore vs The Seahawks, who rank 20th in DVOA vs #1 WRs. In their last three games, they have given up the highest yards per catch average in The NFL and three TDs to WRs. (third most FPPG to WRs since Week 9) Moore is a highly capable receiver and he should be able to expose this weak secondary for 15-20 DK points.
TE: Cameron Brate: (3,700)
With O.J. Howard (ankle and foot) placed on IR, Brate is a near lock for cash games in Week 12. He is expected to become a full time player and should play at least 60% of the snaps this Sunday vs The Niners. In the lone game he logged more than half the snaps this season, Brate caught 3/4 targets for 29 yards and a TD vs an elite Bears’ defense in Week 4. (11.9 DK points)
This Niners’ defense ranks 21st in DVOA against TEs and Brate should catch a handful of balls as the primary TE in this pass heavy offense. He also has a pretty decent chance of finding the endzone, with 75% of Winston’s TDs this season coming in between the numbers. He will be the chalk (21-25% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), so it wise to look elsewhere in GPPs, but for 50/50s, I will be eating the chalk and taking my chances on Brate at this low of a cost.
QB: Cam Newton, Carson Wentz (prior to the embarrassment in New Orleans, Wentz was scoring 24.6 DK PPG in his past six and had contributed multiple TDs in each game. He should bounce back at home, with a 26.5 point implied team total, vs The Giants, who rank 27th in pass DVOA), and Lamar Jackson. (in his first career start, Jackson scored 19.7 DK points, but wasn’t part of any of The Ravens TDs. He rushed it 27 times for 117 yards and The Ravens won the game. He will get the start again with Joe Flacco still out and should rush it around 20 times, vs this 29th ranked Oakland defense. His work on the ground creates a very strong floor and you have to believe he will generate a TD this weekend. I think Winston is safer, but if in a pickle and need that extra $300, I don’t mind at all dropping down to Jackson at $5,700)
RB: Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, James Conner (let me down last week, with only 10.9 DK points, but he dropped an easy TD late in this game, that could have completely saved his fantasy day. Plus, The Steelers were just abysmal overall as an offense and they should rebound vs The Broncos, who are much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, ranking 16th in rush DVOA, but 4th in pass DVOA. He will see 20+ touches and in the last eight games The Steelers have been favored, Conner has scored 24.4 DK PPG), Leonard Fournette (28 touches and 25 DK PPG since returning from the hamstring, but the road matchup vs The Bills, who are 2nd in overall DVOA, clearly could be better), Gus Edwards (the un drafted rookie came on to the scene in a big way last Sunday, rushing for 115 yards and a TD on 17 carries vs The Bengals. He didn’t catch a pass from Jackson, but he did run 10 routes, so there is room for improvement for him as a receiver. The Ravens should continue this game plan with Edwards and Jackson on the ground in this prime matchup vs The Raiders, who rank 25th in rush DVOA. They have an implied team total of 26.75 points and they are 11 point home favorites. Edwards should take on 15-20 carries and score a TD), LeSean McCoy (fresh off a 26/113/2 game vs The Jets, and is now back at home, where McCoy is getting a decent 11.5 DK PPG this season), and Austin Ekeler. (would have to be considered if Melvin Gordon is out. He is currently a GTD due to knee/ hamstring injuries and this seems like a good chance to rest him, with The Chargers being favored by 13 points over The Cardinals on their home field. In the one other contest Gordon missed this season, Ekeler played 95% of the snaps and scored 11.8 DK points vs The Titans. Even against The Cardinals, who are 8th in overall DVOA, Ekeler would be a plug and play value if Gordon is unable to go)
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. (24.4 DK PPG in his last four and he is going against a very beat up Eagles secondary, that now ranks 19th in pass DVOA. This game should stay competitive and OBJ has the best floor/ceiling combination of the slate), Antonio Brown (23.9 DK PPG in his last six and this Broncos secondary isn’t the same unit from the past few years. Plus, for whatever it’s worth, in his last game vs Denver, AB erupted for 49.9 DK points), Keenan Allen (22 DK PPG in his last three and should continue to see volume, but the matchup could be better, with The Cardinals ranking 5th in pass DVOA), T.Y. Hilton (being at home in the dome is a nice boost, particularly vs The Dolphins, who rank 22nd in DVOA vs #2 WRs), Tyler Boyd, and David Moore. (if Doug Baldwin was out. Moore would have to play more of a full time role vs this Panther secondary that is 26th in DVOA vs #2 WRs and has allowed three WR TDs over their last two games)
TE: Zach Ertz and Christopher Herndon. (a respectable 10.2 DK PPG in his last five and The Patriots have given up the 6th most FPPG to TEs since Week 6. If you want to full on punt at TE, Herndon feels like the most viable option)
D: Ravens, Pats, Bills, and Eagles.