Alex here, and these are my DraftKings Sleeper Picks for the Week 12 Sunday main slate. If you looking for cash game plays, be sure to read my first article for Week 12, via this link. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
TE: Rob Gronkowski: (5,100)
Gronkowski (back and ankle) may be listed as questionable, but he is fully expected to play this Sunday vs The Jets. He missed their last two games and with the bye included, The All-Pro TE hasn’t played in nearly a month. All this time off and him having a down year overall (11.7 DK PPG), has brought him down to his cheapest salary in the history of DraftKings’ fantasy football. Back to full strength, this is a comical price for a player of Gronk’s talent. He should see 5-10 targets in this decent matchup vs The Jets, who rank 15th in DVOA vs TEs and 23rd in DVOA vs middle of the field passes. He is always a threat for multiple TDs and The Pats, as usual, should put up a ton of points in this game.
After a 1.0 point increase since the opening lines, The Patriots now have the second highest implied team total of the main slate. (28 points) Coming off the bye and a loss, it’s very likely they top this number, with The Jets giving up a high 29.8 PPG in their last five. In Gronk’s 36 career games that The Pats have had an implied team total over 28 points, he is scoring 16.9 DK PPG. Furthermore, in the 12 games that Gronk is coming of 10 or more days of rest, he is averaging 18.04 DK PPG. At a career low price, I think attacking Gronk is a very smart strategy for GPPs this weekend.
RB: Matt Breida: (5,700)
Breida is the perfect pivot off the popular Marlon Mack. In his last game, he posted a 17/101/1 line on the ground and a 3/31/1 line through the air, vs the 27th DVOA ranked Giants. (31.2 DK points) His matchup this Sunday is even better, heading to Tampa, to face The Bucs. (31st in DVOA) They are putrid vs the run (27th in rush DVOA) and at defending pass catching backs like Breida. (19th in DVOA vs passes to RBs) This defense has allowed 32.9 PPG to offenses and a league high 17 TDs to RBs this season.
Vegas is currently favoring Breida to score and I think it’s possible he finds the end zone more than once in this projected shootout. (53.5 O/U game total, highest of the slate) Everyone is on The Bucs’ offensive this week, but The Niners aren’t getting much hype, and Breida is only projected for an ownership somewhere between 9-12% in GPPs. (via Fantasy Labs)
WR: Alshon Jeffery: (5,800)
Jeffery has stunk recently (7.9 DK PPG), but he has faced three tough matchups in a row. The Jags are 3rd in DVOA vs #1 WRS, The Cowboys rank 12th, and The Saints have been on a roll defensively over the last three weeks, with CB Marshon Lattimore playing a much higher level. (three of his top four PFF coverage grades of the season have come in these games) This week, Jeffery and The Eagles will be back at home, playing The Giants. (27th in overall DVOA) The defending Super Bowl champs currently sit at 4-6 and if they drop this game, their hopes of returning to the postseason are essentially gone.
On top of the importance of this game, The Giants rank 27th in pass DVOA and 31st in DVOA vs #1 WRs. Over their last four games, they have let WRs catch 76.6% of their targets. Finally, just over a month ago, Jeffery went 8/74/2 vs this secondary in a 34-13 win. (27.4 DK points) Golden Tate being in this offense brings uncertainty to Jeffery’s volume, but I think if The Eagles were wise, they would game plan around Jeffery in this very important NFC East matchup.
QB: Andrew Luck (26.9 DK PPG in his last seven and he is at home, going against The Dolphins, who are 22nd in pass DVOA) and Ryan Tannehill. (will make his return and is a very reasonable $5,000 for this indoor matchup vs The Colts, who are 23rd in pass DVOA)
RB: James White (should bounce back vs The Jets. Before the ugly 7.6 DK points vs The Titans, White was averaging 25.4 DK PPG in his previous seven), David Johnson (23.6 DK PPG in his last three and The Chargers are 18th in rush DVOA this season. Even as heavy underdogs, DJ could obtain value as a receiver and by scoring TDs), Nick Chubb (in a career high 80% of the snaps, Chubb torched The Falcons for 38.9 DK points. His matchup this week isn’t as strong, but The Bengals have allowed the most FPPG to RBs since Week 7), Peyton Barber, and Joshua Adams. (led the way with 10 touches in 55% of the snaps last week vs The Saints. Who knows if this will happen again, but Adams at only $3,800 is a reasonable dart with The Eagles having a 26.5 point implied team total)
WR: Mike Evans (33 DK points last week vs The Giants, including a TD pass from Winston. He should benefit from Winston being under center, vs this Niners’ secondary, that is 21st in pass DVOA), Julian Edelman (Jets’ slot CB Buster Skrine has has a low PFF grade of 46 this season), Jarvis Landry, Emmanuel Sanders, Kenny Stills (Tannehill being back is a big boost and The Colts rank 21st in deep pass DVOA), and Kendrick Bourne. (played 94% of the snaps and saw six targets with Pierre Garcon out last game. Garcon will miss another game and The Niners will also be without Marquise Goodwin, due to a personal matter. Bourne will be in a full time role, vs this 30th pass DVOA ranked Bucs’ secondary. He is solid GPP target and is almost cash viable at this cheap price)
TE: George Kittle (20.6 DK PPG in his last two with Mullens and should benefit from Goodwin’s absence, in this outstanding matchup vs The Bucs, who rank 31st in DVOA vs TEs) and Greg Olsen. (could see an uptick in targets with Devin Funchess doubtful and The Seahawks are 21st in DVOA against TEs)
D: Chargers, Colts, and Niners.