Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 12. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the MAIN SLATE that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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TE: Greg Olsen: (4,800) Olsen returned to practice this week after breaking his foot in Week 2. He logged two full practices on Tuesday and Wednesday and he is fully expected to return to action this Sunday vs The Jets. Right now it’s unclear if his snaps will be limited, but at this low of price, he is still worth a risk even if he doesn’t log every single snap like he usually does. Olsen is one of the premier receiving TE’s in The NFL and $4,800 is a serious discount compared to his $6,200 price tag for Week 1.
This was his only full game of this season, and yes it was a quiet game for the TE (3.8 DK points), but this game was a complete blowout, and Panthers QB Cam Newton only had to attempt 25 passes in the win. Also, Newton was playing like the worst QB in The NFL at the start of the season, but he has looked much more like his old self recently, leading The Panthers to three straight wins. Furthermore, we know Newton and Olsen have great chemistry and Olsen should be relied on heavily in this offense, possibly even more than usual, with WR Kelvin Benajmin traded to The Bills and WR Curtis Samuel done for the year with torn ligaments in his ankle. It’s a possibility that Olsen leads this team in targets this week and going forward this season, particularly in the red zone. His match-up is also pretty solid this week, as The Jets have allowed the 7th most DK points a game to TE’s this year. This is the perfect time to buy low on Olsen before everyone else is back on him.
QB: Paxton Lynch: (4,400) The Broncos lost their sixth straight game last Sunday, and they have decided to give Lynch a chance to run this offense, naming him the starter for this Week’s matchup vs The Raiders. Obviously, I don’t think much of Lynch, but any starting QB is in play when they face this Oakland defense. They rank dead last in pass DVOA and dead last in overall DVOA this season and they have been at their worst over their last three games, allowing opposing QBs to complete a league high 79.2% of their passes and score 24.2 DK points a game.
We can’t expect a massive day, but at this cheap of a salary, Lynch only needs to score 13.2 DK points to hit value, which is certainly achievable vs this terrible defense. Currently, via the props tool at Fantasy Labs (which is something I highly recommend checking out if you have an account), Lynch is projected to score 15.44 fantasy points based on his current Vegas props. Both of his top two wide outs have strong individual match-ups, but I will be stacking Lynch with Demaryius Thomas in GPPs this weekend. This stack should be extremely low owned and it opens up a ton of possibilities with both Lynch and Thomas coming with low salaries.
RB: J.D. McKissic: (3,700) Monday night after new RB Mike Davis left the game with a groin injury, this was Mckissic’s backfield, leading this team with 12 touches while playing 68% of the snaps, producing 10.3 DK points in the loss to The Falcons. Davis hasn’t practiced this week and is being called a game time decision, but I think its unlikely he suits up for this Sunday. In this situation, even though he is mostly known for his receiving skills, McKissic should once again lead this Seahawk backfield in touches. He couldn’t ask for a better spot to have his best game of the year, going against The Niners, who allow the most DK points a game to opposing backs.
Plus, they rank 31st in DVOA in defending passes intended for RBs, which is perfect for Mckissic’s game. At the moment Fantasy Labs has his projected ownership at 0-1%. This number will obviously change if Davis is confirmed out, but regardless of ownership, we are talking about getting a lead back in an offense that has an implied team total of 25.75 points for only $3,700. Davis’s status is something to monitor all the way to Sunday, because if he is out like I am expecting, Mckissic would become one of the best values of Week 12.
QB: Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Jacoby Brissett, and Marcus Mariota.
RB: Duke Johnson Jr., Devontae Booker (20 touches last week and The Raiders allow the 5th most DK points to RBs), and Dion Lewis (if Rex Burkhead is still in Belichick’s dog house, Lewis should be the main guy here again. 18.8 DK points on 14 touches last week).
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Crabtree, Rishard Matthews, Corey Davis, Jarvis Landry, and Corey Coleman (in his return last week Coleman caught six of his 11 targets for 80 yards, which is a very good game when consider he was playing The Jags who have the best corners in football. He gets another tough matchup vs The Bengals but he should lead this squad in snaps and taregts once again).
TE: Jared Cook, Tyler Kroft, O.J. Howard, and George Kittle (is expected to return and his price has dropped to $2,800. The matchup is also decent with The Seahawks giving up 15.2 fantasy points a game to TEs over the last two weeks, including a TD in each game).
D: Pats, Falcons, Raiders, and Colts.