QB: Jameis Winston: (6,000)
After last week’s 25.88 DK points in the win over The Niners, I will be going right back to Winston this week vs The Panthers. In this win, Winston completed 76.3% of this throws for 313 yards, two TDS, and no picks (first time in a full start this year), while also chipping in with 24 yards rushing. The former Seminole is now averaging 29.23 DK PPG in the three full games he has started and finished this season.
Leading The Bucs to their first victory in five games, gives Winston some job security, just in time for another strong matchup, vs The Panthers. (27th in pass DVOA) In their last six games, they have let QBs throw for an eye popping 16 TDs and only four picks. (4th most FPPG to QBs) As you most likely already know, The Bucs’ secondary is also one of the league’s worst (31st in pass DVOA), and this matchup has shootout written all over it. (slate high O/U game total of 55 points) Winston should carve them up for multiple scores and he is always a threat for the 300 yard bonus. At only $6,000, he is the best point per dollar value at his position.
RB: Phillip Lindsay: (5,400)
Lindsay has been gaining an elite 7.56 YPA in his last two games (23.3 DK points) and this week, he will be facing The Bengals, who have slowly become one of the league’s worst defenses. (28th in DVOA) Offenses are scoring 37.8 PPG on them since Week 7 and during that time, RBs are scoring the most FPPG vs this group.
RBs have tallied 11 TDs against them in their last five games and this is the perfect time for Lindsay, with him being used in the red zone frequently as of late. (eight red zone chances and three TDs in his last two games) With Royce Freeman still lingering, Lindsay won’t see a huge workload, but in 15-20 touches, he should score 15+ DK points vs this crumbling Bengals’ defense.
WR: D.J. Moore: (5,600)
This recommendation is under the assumption that Devin Funchess will miss another game. (back, hasn’t practiced up until Wednesday) With him out, last week, Moore saw a season high nine targets and caught eight of them for 91 yards vs The Seahawks. (17.8 DK points) The Panthers desperately need a win right now (have dropped three straight) and Cam Newton should continue to feed Moore with high volume, in this matchup vs The Bucs. By their fantasy numbers, they have vastly improved in their last three (10th least FPPG since Week 9), but this number is deceiving, when you factor in that they have played two extremely shorthanded WR corps, in The Redskins and Niners, during this time.
They are still one of the worst defenses in The NFL (31st in DVOA) and this Panthers’ offense should expose them for who they really are this Sunday. Carolina has an implied team total of 29.25 points (3rd highest of the slate) and each of their starting CBs possess PFF grades under 60 this season. Moore should have no trouble against this secondary and get at least three times value, with very strong upside, in this important game for The Panthers.
TE: Eric Ebron: (4,200)
Ebron is easily the best value of the week. Fellow Colts’ TE Jack Doyle (kidney) is officially on IR, leaving Ebron as a featured player. In the previous five games Doyle missed in 2018, Ebron was Andrew Luck’s top target. (22.22% market share) He found the endzone five times during this stretch and averaged 16.2 DK PPG. With Doyle missing most of the game this past Sunday, Ebron was excellent, in 71% of the snaps, hauling in 5/7 targets for 45 yards and TDs vs The Dolphins. (21.5 DK points)
He will have to log most of the snaps for the rest season and this Sunday, he gets a nice matchup to start, facing The Jags, who have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to TEs since Week 8. They have been particularly susceptible in the red zone, surrendering a league high six TE TDs in their past four games. Ebron is a very strong bet to score his 12th TD of the season and is a near must play for Sunday’s main slate.
QB: Cam Newton, Jared Goff, and Lamar Jackson. (20.96 DK PPG as the starter and he is a road underdog, playing indoors, against The Falcons, who are dead last in DVOA)
RB: Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey (34.8 DK PPG in his last four. The Bucs are 27th in rush DVOA and 20th in DVOA vs passes to RBs), Saquon Barkely (yes, he is playing The Bears, but this is a crazy price drop, of $1,300, for a player who is averaging 37.2 DK PPG in his last two, and is guaranteed for well over 20 touches), Kareem Hunt (The Chiefs have a slate high implied team total of 35.25 points and are massive 15.5 point favorites. Hunt should score a TD and see 20-25 touches, as he drains the clock out for The Chiefs), Aaron Jones (27 DK PPG in his last three and The Cardinals have allowed the 4th most FPPG to RBs since Week 9), and T.J. Yeldon/Carlos Hyde. (both are in play with Leonard Fournette suspended. Hyde should handle the early down work and has TD upside, but Yeldon is the safer play, at the higher cost. He is the receiving back of the two, creating a much better floor in DraftKings’ full PPR scoring system. Plus, The Colts rank 30th in DVOA against passes to RBs)
WR: Deandre Hopkins, Mike Evans (26.8 DK PPG in these last two with Winston playing most of the snaps), Adam Thielen, Davante Adams (Patrick Peterson has only shadowed three times this year, so Adams should be just fine, at home, where he is averaging 23.2 DK PPG) Julian Edelman (quietly scoring 20.5 DK PPG in his last four and he gets the most favorable matchup for a Pats’ WR, coming out of the slot, vs Mackensie Alexander), Brandin Cooks (may be shadowed by Darius Slay, but he has seen 12 targets in back to back games, and The Rams have an implied team total of 32.25 points), Robert Woods, Corey Davis (rebound nicely on MNF, catching all four of his targets for 96 yards and a TD vs The Texans. He is now producing 17.2 DK PPG in his last four and The Jets are a solid spot, allowing the 7th most FPPG to WRs since Week 10), and Dante Pettis. (only if Marquise Goodwin is out again for personal reasons. He has yet to report to the team up until Wednesday and this Seahawks’ defense is 17th in DVOA vs #1 WRs. Last Sunday, without Goodwin, Pettis played 91% of the snaps and caught 4/7 targets for 77 yards and a TD vs The Bucs)
TE: Travis Kelce. (The Raiders are dead last in DVOA vs TEs and he is averaging 10.25 targets in his last four)
D: Packers (it’s a great week to go cheap at defense. The Packers are only $2,800, at home, playing against The Cardinals, who have a slate low implied team total of 15.25 points), Broncos, and Chiefs.