What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 13. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the MAIN SLATE that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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QB: Jimmy Garoppolo: (5,100) It took an injury to QB C.J. Beathard to make it happen, but Jimmy G, the former Patriot that The Niners sent a second rounder to New England for will finally start this week. Beathard was exceeding expectations, and no disrespect to him, but Garopppolo is the better player, and is their QB of the future. Last week, Beathhard essentially played the whole game, and didn’t throw a single TD vs The Seahawks. Garoppolo entered the game with 1:07 left in the fourth quarter, and drove The Niners to a TD in a total of only three plays. I understand this is an extremely small sample, but this isn’t the only time Garoppolo has showed us how talented he truly he is. When Tom Brady was suspended last season, and before Garoppolo got injured with a shoulder injury, he was playing extremely well in place of the future Hall of Famer, completing 71% of his passes for 496 yards and three TDs in less than a game and a half of football.
This rates as a 8.4 yards per attempt, which is very efficient for a QB. The first match-up he gets is The Bears who have allowed the 8th least DK points to QBs this season, but they have been worse over the last three weeks, allowing 19.1 DK points to opposing QBs, which is a sizeable difference from the 15.3 DK points a game they have been allowing for the season. The Bears are still a tough defense, especially at home, but in my opinion, no matter the match-up, I think Garoppolo must be considered at this soft of a price tag. He didn’t complete the second quarter in his second start for Brady last season, but even if you round his play up to a full six quarters as a starter for The Pats, Garoppolo averaged a great 6.3 DK points a quarter as a starting QB. The weapons are clearly a big downgrade in San Francisco compared to last year’s Pats, but at this price tag he only needs to score 15 DK points to meet value, and quite honestly, I think we definitely see him top 20 in this crucial first start in his new uniform. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
RB: Jamaal Williams: (4,700) Last Sunday night with both Packer’ RBs Aaron Jones (knee) and Ty Montgomery (ribs) out, Williams played as a feature back, racking up a season high 25 touches, while playing 82% of the snaps. With the larger workload, the fourth round pick tallied 135 yards from scrimmage and two TDS in the loss. (29.5 DK points) Both Jones and Montgomery were present at Wednesday’s practice, but both only saw limited work. Things are trending towards both of the backs being out or at least very limited for this Sunday’s home game vs The Bucs.
We should see Williams in another 20+ role in a great spot vs this Bucs’ defense that ranks 20th in rush DVOA and 27th in overall DVOA. In these last two games he has seen at least 80% of the snaps and is averaging 0.91 DK points per touch. This is a situation to monitor to see how much work Jones and Montgomery get in practice in the next couple of days, but if both are out, or even just one is out, Williams is a player who is worth looking at in this cheap salary. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
RB: Marshawn Lynch: (4,800) Last week, Lynch handled his biggest workload as a Raider this season, touching the ball 29 times, for 110 total yards, and a TD in the win over The Broncos. (20.1 DK points) He played a season high 69% of the snaps, and was rather effective as a receiver, hauling in all three of his targets. The Raiders needed Lynch down the stretch to drain the clock, but they also were much more of a run centered offense after WR Michael Crabtree was ejected from the game. 61% of their plays were running plays, which was the highest percentage for any team in Week 12. I understand this had to do with game flow, but this was a huge difference from their 39% run play average this season.
This week, we should see a very similar situation, with Crabtree suspended and fellow WR Amari Cooper expected to be out with an ankle injury and a concussion. Lynch should see heavy usage in this run centered offense, especially with The Raiders currently as 9.5 point home favorites over a horrible Giants team. Lynch historically has thrived as a home favorite over the last three seasons, averaging 17.5 DK points in the last 15 games that his team was favored at home, which is a 3.4 DK point +/-. Finally, this Giants defense is an awesome unit to attack on the ground, ranking 25th in rush DVOA, and allowing 119.5 rushing yards per game over their last four. At only $4,800, Lynch looks like a strong buy this week that should come with a decently low ownership in GPPs. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
QB: Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, Blake Bortles, and Brett Hundley.
RB: Carlos Hyde, Dion Lewis, Jordan Howard, Devontae Booker, and Duke Johnson Jr.
WR: Josh Reynolds (really nice spot as the #2 option vs this Cardinals defense. With Woods out, Sammy Watkins will become the #1 outside threat, putting Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson on him, which naturally funnels more looks to Reynolds), Desean Jackson, Dede Westbrook, Demaryius Thomas, Corey Davis, and Marquise Goodwin.
TE: Hunter Henry, George Kittle, and Jack Doyle.
D: Dolphins, Saints (assuming Lattimore is back, great price if he is), and Raiders.