Alex here, and below are my favorite values for the Week 14 DraftKings’ main Sunday Slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 14 Sleeper Picks article, that will be posted later in the week. @Hunta512.
QB: Patrick Mahomes: (7,000)
With a plethora of strong cheap values available this week, I think paying up for Mahomes, is a very viable route for cash games, despite the tough matchup vs The Ravens. (4th in DVOA) He is arguably the MVP of the league this season (31 DK PPG) and in his last seven games, he has topped 30 DK points six times. This matchup vs Baltimore rates very poorly (-2.2 opponent +/-), but he has been matchup proof in 2018. In the six games he has gone against a negative opponent +/-, Mahomes has produced 26 DK PPG.
Furthermore, he will be at home in Arrowhead, and Vegas is giving The Chiefs an implied team total of 29.75 points. In the seven previous games that The Chiefs were projected to score over 29 points, the second year QB is averaging 32 DK PPG. No matter the matchup, Mahomes has the highest ceiling in the game, and I think that upside is worth attacking this week, at only $7,000, which is the cheapest he has been in five weeks.
RB: Jaylen Samuels: (3,700)
Samuels is an automatic play this week with James Conner (ankle) out. Right after Conner went down on MNF vs The Chargers, Samuels instantly made his presence felt, catching a 10 yard pass for a TD, that tied the game in the 4th quarter. (11.5 DK points) He has barely played this season, but the rookie out of North Carolina State is a very capable receiving back. He has caught seven of his nine total targets this season and has converted two of those passes for TDs. The rookie out of North Carolina State was a stud pass catching back in college, bringing in a whopping 195 balls in his final three seasons. HC Mike Tomlin has said he will be using a RB committee with Conner out, but Samuels told the media on Wednesday that he will be the starter and split some carries with Stevan Ridley.
Either way, Samuels should see a healthy dose of ground work and be the primary pass down back, with Ridley never being an effective receiver throughout his NFL career. The matchup is very enticing, as 11 point favorites over The Raiders, who rank 32nd in pass DVOA, 31st in rush DVOA, and 19th in DVOA vs passes to RBs. DraftKings’ full PPR scoring gives Samuel a very solid floor and he should easily get over three times value, behind this hefty team total. (31.25 points, which is the second highest implied team total of the main slate)
WR: Keenan Allen: (7,400)
Allen erupted for a 14/198/1 line in the MNF win over The Steelers this past week (39.8 DK Points) and he has led The Chargers with an insane 35.2% target share over their last five games. This Sunday, The Chargers are big favorites over The Bengals (LAC -14), but Allen should be the main reason why they get ahead. This Bengals’ defense has become the laughing stock of The NFL (most PPG allowed and 29th in DVOA) and Allen has a beautiful individual matchup against SCB Darqueze Dennard. (57.4 PFF grade)
Out of the 96 starting receivers playing in Week 14, Allen has the 4th biggest advantage for a WR in this spot, according to PFF. Playing on Monday night didn’t give DraftKings time to adjust Allen’s salary and he is severely underpriced right now.
TE: Travis Kelce: (6,700)
Kelce has also seen a price dip for this matchup with The Ravens. (-$300 since last Sunday) The difference is, this is actually an above average spot by the numbers for TEs. So far this year, Baltimore ranks 25th in DVOA vs TEs and over their last three games, they have surrendered three TDs to the position. Their elite group of corners should make HC Andy Reid game plan around Kelce for the second straight week. Last Sunday, vs The Raiders, Kelce was simply unstoppable, catching 12/13 targets for a season high 168 yards, and two TDs. (42.8 DK points)
He is now seeing a massive 31% target share in their last four games and I am expecting close to 10 targets in Week 14. As I stated above, The Chiefs have a high team total (29.25 points) and in the past seven games The Chiefs have presented an implied team total of at least 29 points, Kelce has been a monster, with 26.7 DK PPG. With no standout cheap options at the position and some great RB values to utilize, I think paying up for Kelce or Zach Ertz (below) is a smart move this week.
QB: Jameis Winston (24.32 DK PPG in the past two and this Saints Bucs game has the highest O/U game total of the main slate. The Bucs are also eight point underdogs, which should force Winston over 40 attempts. The Saints have vastly improved in their secondary, allowing the 9th least FPPG to QBs over their last three games, but Winston should be able to retain 20+ DK points, based on volume) and Deshaun Watson. (Watson is scoring 21.5 DK PPG in his last five and The Colts are 21st in pass DVOA. This game has a healthy O/U game total of 49 points and in the six contests that have had a total of 45 points or more, Watson has supplied 23.4 DK PPG. Finally, this is only the second time this year he has been priced under $6,000)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (has been unstoppable, averaging 34.7 DK PPG in his last five and The Browns are 26th in rush DVOA, while also ranking 25th in DVOA vs passes to RBs), Ezekiel Elliot (Zeke isn’t far behind CMC in production recently, with him averaging 31.1 DK PPG in his last five. Plus, he is a home favorite, over The Eagles, who have given up the second most FPPG to RBs since Week 10. When a home favorite, Zeke is averaging 25.1 DK PPG this season), Phillip Lindsay (with Emmanuel Sanders done with an Achilles injury, The Broncos could turn to being a run first offense. Either way, Lindsay has just been outstanding, averaging 26.2 DK PPG in his last three games. He should see 20+ touches and return value, vs this Niners’ defense, that ranks 26th in DVOA), and Jeffrey Wilson. (with Matt Brieda tweaking his ankle in warmups, The Niners relied on Wilson vs The Seahawks last Sunday. In 72% of the snaps, he scored 20.8 DK points, mostly from him catching 8/9 targets for 73 yards. He is expected to start with Brieda already confirmed out and The Broncos rank 22nd in DVOA vs passes to RBs. He is right there with Samuels for the best skill player value of the week and I will be using both in the same lineup)
WR: Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas (been quiet, but this bounce back spot, with The Bucs ranking 29th in pass DVOA, and 29th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Davante Adams (22.9 DK PPG this season and The Falcons are 28th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Julio Jones (The Packers are 22nd in DVOA vs #1 WRs and Jones is averaging 28.2 DK PPG in his last four against GB), Chris Godwin (Deshaun Jackson isn’t expected to play again and last week, without the deep threat, Godwin scored a season high 24.1 DK points vs Panthers. He should see a full complement of snaps and mostly avoid Marshon Lattimore. The Saints are dead last in DVOA vs #2 WRs this season), Cortland Sutton (the volume should be way up with Sanders done and even though Richard Sherman has been great this season, The Niners still rank 26th in pass DVOA, and 19th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), and Adam Humphries.
TE: Zach Ertz (This is a must win again and The Cowboys have been terrible at defending TEs, allowing the second most FPPG to the position since Week 10. Ertz is averaging 19.9 DK PPG this season and he should be relied on heavily again, after scoring 43.5 DK points vs this same Dallas defense just four weeks ago) and Rhett Ellison. (is a full time player right now and is scoring 10 DK PPG in his last two. However, the matchup is tough vs The Redskins, who rank 9th in DVOA vs TEs. He should still manage close to three times value and is the most viable full TE punt)
D: Chargers (at home and The Bengals have the lowest implied team total of the slate), Steelers, Redskins, and Chiefs. (they are scoring 11.8 DK PPG at home this season and The Ravens have a lower implied team total of 23.3 points)