What’s going on guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 14. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the MAIN SLATE that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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QB: Deshone Kizer: (4,900) Kizer has been solid over the last two weeks, in some so so matchups, putting up 20.62 DK points vs The Bengals in Week 12, then 15.2 DK points last week vs The Chargers. In week 12, he only had WR Corey Coleman, but last Sunday he got he Josh Gordon back, who he connected with four times on a team high 11 targets for 85 yards. Kizer, as we all know isn’t shy about throwing it deep and having Gordon in this offense is a massive boost to his fantasy stock. On top of having two legitimate WRs to work with now, Kizer has also been more active on the ground, averaging 6.3 carries a game in these past three. He is trending up and is in the perfect spot for him to have his best game of the 2017 season this week vs The Packers who rank 21st in pass DVOA and have allowed the 5th most DK points to QBs over their last four games.
During this stretch of games, this defense is allowing QBs to complete 69.3% of their passes, an average of 275.25 yards, and two TDs per game. This matchup currently rates a 3.8 opponent +/-, which is by far the best matchup for any QB playing in the main slate. Gordon without question will be one of the chalk plays of the week (41-50% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but Kizer is expected to come with a lower ownership in GPPs. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs). Just like everyone else I love Gordon this week, but in GPPs, I think stacking him with Kizer is a smart strategy, that could really work out if Kizer’s lower ownership pans out. Either way, I love both players this week and will be actively targeting this stack in GPPs, and have no problem with also taking the risk in cash.
WR: Marquise Goodwin: (5,100) It doesn’t bother me at all that Goodwin’s price has jumped $1,100 to a season high $5,100, because in my opinion, he is a player who will be in play every week with QB Jimmy Garoppolo under center for The Niners. Yes, Garoppolo’s performance didn’t turn into great fantasy numbers (11.52 DK points), but he got screwed out of multiple redzone opportunities due to many costly penalties by his teammates. He still looked very poised in his first start as a Niner, completing 70.3% of his passes for 293 yards, while leading this team to their second victory of the season, on the road vs a Bears team that always plays better at home. In the win, Goodwin was Garoppolo’s primary weapon, connecting with him on all eight of his targets for 99 yards. (17.9 DK points)
Not only did he lead this team in targets and receptions, but he led this offense in snaps, at 77.3%. In this game, he was mostly matched up with Bears CB Prince Amukamara, who has played very well this season, currently sitting at a nice PFF grade of 81.2. This week, Goodwin gets a much easier matchup vs Texans CB Kevin Johnson, who is the second worst rated CB in action this week, at a PFF grade of 35.9. Furthermore, this defense ranks 22nd in DVOA vs #1 WRs and 27th in deep pass DVOA. We saw a great 17.9 DK points from him in a tougher matchup last week, so the ceiling is obviously very high for him in this much easier spot. I am looking for him to score 15+ DK points this Sunday, with huge upside if he can find the endzone. His salary increase should scare off most people (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) and Goodwin and Garoppolo is another stack that I absolutely love for Week 14.
TE: Ricky Seal-Jones: (3,400) Tight end is always the weakest position in DFS, but it is particularly bad this week. There really aren’t many compelling options outside of a few names that will be very chalky plays. Seal-Jones has been excellent since being mixed in this Cardinals’ offense and seems like a really nice contrarian pick at his cheap salary. The rookie was WR at Texas A&M and The Cardinals are now trying to convert him into a TE. He is a massive prospect standing at 6’5” and weighing in at 225 pounds. He came on the scene three weeks ago and has had great chemistry with Cardinals starting QB Blaine Gabbert. In these last games, RSJ has scored three TDs and is the team’s second most targeted player at a 15.5% market share, while averaging 15 DK points a game.
The down part of all this is that he is only playing an average of 20% of snaps during this time, but he is on the field mostly for only playing passing downs, and his snaps have been slowly increasing each week. We can’t expect him to all of a sudden be out there every play this week, but his role is growing and he should play more each game for the rest of the season. This week, he is in the best spot a TE could ask for, going against The Titans, who have allowed the most DK points to TEs over their last two games. (19.45 DK PPG) This matchup is currently a 2.0 opponent +/- for TEs, which is the best rated matchup for any TE that is part of DraftKings’ main slate. Obviously, there is plenty of risk here with a player who has a limited role, but the kid clearly has upside, and this is the best matchup he has seen since being entered in the offense. I wouldn’t go overboard with how many shares you have of him, but for GPPs, RSJ at only $3,400, seems like one of the best TE gambles of the week.
QB: Jimmy Garopplo, Tom Savage, Jameis Winston, and Blaine Gabbert.
RB: Mike Davis, Lamar Miller, Jamal Williams, Alfred Morris, Carlos Hyde, Theo Riddick (if Abdullah is out), and Kerwyn Williams (AP has been ruled out, 16 carries for 96 yards last week vs The Rams).
WR: Desean Jackson, Marquise Lee, Corey Coleman, Trent Taylor, Dede Westbrook, and Golden Tate.
TE: Hunter Henry, Eric Ebron, Trey Burton (if Ertz is out. He is still in concussion protocol), and Charles Clay.
D: Browns, Vikings, Lions, and Cowboys.