QB: Aaron Rodgers: (6,000)
With Mike McCarthy out of town, there is hope for Rodgers to regain elite fantasy status. The Packers will hopefully go back to being one of the most pass heavy offenses in the league, under Joe Philbin, and this is a perfect spot to start, going against the defensively inept Falcons. Due to an excessive amount of injuries, this Atlanta defense ranks dead last in overall DVOA, and second to last in pass DOVA. The Falcons get torched on a weekly basis (5th most PPG allowed) and Rodgers has always carved them to pieces, scoring 29 DK PPG, in their last four meetings.
On top of the matchup and hopefully a whole new game plan, A Rod will be at home in Lambo field. (3.3 more DK PPG over the last five seasons) $6,000 is just a comical price tag for Rodgers at home and in fact, this is the cheapest he has ever been for a regular season home game in the history of DraftKings’ DFS. That alone, is eye popping, and I will be stacking Rodgers with the ever so consistent Davante Adams (ATL is 28th in DVOA vs #1 WRS), with the hope that this offense gets back to it’s high scoring ways.
WR: Amari Cooper: (6,600)
Cooper followed up his 41 DK point Thanksgiving Day explosion against The Redskins, with a solid 8/75/0 line, in a tough individual matchup vs Marshon Lattimore in Week 13. (14.5 DK points) He has now caught 16 of his 17 targets for 255 yards and two TDs in The Cowboys’ last two games and overall, he has a PFF offense grade of 86 since being traded to Dallas, which is huge improvement, from the 64.9 grade he saw as a member of The Raiders.
Having Cooper has been a huge boost for Dak Prescott and this Sunday’s game vs The Eagles is massive game for The Cowboys if they want to win The NFC East. They currently sit at the top of the division (7-6) over the rivaled Eagles. (6-6) In this pivotal matchup, Prescott should be looking for Cooper early and often, vs this Eagles’ secondary, that is allowing the 8th most FPPG to WRs since Week 7. They currently rank 19th in pass DVOA and all of their starting CBs have PFF grades under 60 this season. Cooper has tremendous upside in this spot and he is one of my favorite GPP targets of this slate.
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster: (8,200)
With James Conner (ankle) out, I think The Steelers may rely on their passing game, more so than ever this week, vs The Raiders. In his last three games, Smith-Schuster has garnered a 24.5% target share, which is neck and neck with Antonio Brown, who is at 26.5%. He is scoring 23.13 DK PPG in his last four and this season, he has been the more reliable fantasy option over Brown, when The Steelers are the road. In their six away games, Juju is scoring 24 DK PPG, compared to Browns’ 20.4.
Plus, Smith-Schuster’s individual matchup is much stronger, going against Daryl Worley (50.5 PFF grade), vs Gareon Conley (68.1 PFF grade), who should spend most of his time on AB. All in all, this a great time to target Smith-Schuster (Steelers have a 31.25 implied team total, second highest of the main slate), as most people may shy away from him, with many bigger names in this $7,000-$9,000 price range. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (after dropping two straight, The Steelers need this win. Being on the road is always a concern with Ben, but the volume should be up, and The Raiders are dead last in pass DVOA) and Lamar Jackson. (finally, this should be the game that Jackson has to throw it over 30 times. He has had a lead in all three of his first starts, but a deficit is inevitable, vs The Chiefs, in Arrowhead. The Ravens are 6.5 point underdogs and I could see Jackson posting his best DK score to date, playing catch up, against this Chiefs’ defense, that is 21st in DVOA)
RB: Aaron Jones (even though I expect a more pass friendly attack from GB, there is also a chance that Philbin goes with Jones as an every down back. Plus, this matchup couldn’t be better, with The Falcons allowing the 3rd most FPPG to RBs and most total catches to the position), Lamar Miller (over 100 yards in two straight games and he is a 4.5 point home favorite, over The Colts), and Justin Jackson. (the rookie was outstanding with only nine touches last week vs The Steelers, totaling 82 yards, a TD, and 15.2 DK points in the win. If Melvin Gordon sits again, as expected, I think Jackson has earned himself around 15 touches this week, going against a horrid Bengals’ defense, that is 28th rush DVOA, and has allowed the most FPPG to RBs this year)
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ is averaging 26 DK PPG in his last six games against The Redskins), Tyreek Hill, Julian Edelman (Dolphins’ SCB, Bobby McCain, has a low PFF grade of 52, and is allowing 1.97 yards per route covered), T.Y. Hilton (always prefer Hilton at home, but he is averaging 22.5 DK PPG in his last four vs Houston), Golden Tate (23.5 DK points vs The Redskins and The Cowboys are weaker out of the slot), Chris Conley (if Sammy Watkins is out. 19 DK PPG in these past two without Watkins and even if the matchup vs The Ravens is awful, Conley has Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball, at home, with a 28.75 implied team total), Mike Gallup (on 73% of the snaps, Gallup caught 5/7 targets for 73 yards, in the huge win over The Saints. He now faces an extremely beat up Eagles’ secondary, that is 27th in DVOA vs #2 WRs), and DaeSean Hamilton. (will serve as the #2 WR with Emmanuel Sanders now on the shelf and SF is 26th in DVOA when defending secondary receivers. In a full PPR scoring system, Hamilton should retain value, with a full complement of snaps)
TE: Eric Ebron (hard to tell which high end TE will garner the most ownership, but I have to think Ebron will be the lowest, of him, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz. Either way, Ebron saw 16 targets last game with Jack Doyle out and this is another ideal spot for him, with The Texans ranking 29th in DVOA vs TEs) and Rob Gronkowski. (very quiet right now, but yet again, this is a new career low DraftKings’ price for Gronk. Soon, he has to have a vintage game, and this isn’t a bad spot for it to happen, with him averaging 16.1 DK PPG in his last six vs The Dolphins)
D: Bills, Pats, and Texans.