QB: Tom Brady: (5,900)
For the third week in a row, Brady is priced under $6,000. Last Sunday, in the devastating loss to The Dolphins, the five time Super Bowl champ did his job, throwing for 358 yards, three TDs, and no picks. (29.62 DK points) He has been solid in last three games (23 DK PPG) and when coming off his last five regular season losses. (21 DK PPG)
Additionally, Brady has been efficient when facing The Steelers (23.2 DK PPG in his last four vs PIT) and they are 21st in pass DVOA this season. This AFC matchup has the highest O/U game total of the slate (52 points) and The Pats present the highest implied team total. (27.25 points) Brady can always lose TDs to his rushers, but it’s rare to get the QB, of the team that is expected to score the most points, at this cheap of a price. To top it all off, with The Chiefs losing to The Chargers on Thursday night, this game just became huge for The Pats. They are now still very much alive for the #1 seed in The AFC and Brady should score a minimum of 20 DK points, with excellent upside, in this possible shootout.
RB: Jaylen Samuels: (5,200)
In 80% of the snaps, Samuels turned in a 16.2 DK point effort vs The Raiders. He caught all seven of his targets for 64 yards and even though Stevan Ridely stole a TD from him, both of the backs saw two redzone touches. Samuels 80% snaps rate vs Ridley’s 13%, clearly shows us they are favoring Samuels with James Conner (ankle) injured.
This week, he should be very active in the passing game once again, as 2.5 point underdogs, vs The Patriots. New England has slipped to 20th in overall DVOA and 20th in DVOA vs passes to RBs. Due to his work as a receiver, Samuels has a strong floor, and if he can score a TD, we could be looking at a 20+ DK point performance from the rookie.
WR: T.Y. Hilton: (6,800)
This is a huge game for both The Colts and Cowboys. Both teams can’t afford a loss right now and this game has decent shootout potential (47 O/U game total, second highest of the slate), indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. Hilton was questionable to play last Sunday, with a shoulder injury, but that was soon forgotten, with him catching 9/12 targets for 199 yards vs The Texans. (31.9 DK points)
Hilton has always excelled at home in his career and this season has been no different. (4.2 more DK PPG) Despite this being in a tough matchup (DAL is 6th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Hilton should produce, with the heavy volume he has been seeing. (27.3% target share since Week 12)
TE: Eric Ebron: (5,900)
Ebron’s stellar season continued this past weekend, with a 4/65/1 line in the big win over The Texans. (16.5 DK PPG) In these last three games, he is now scoring 18.1 DK PPG, and seeing a 24.2% target share, as The Colts’ featured TE. Dallas is an above average defensive group (6th in DVOA), but they have been susceptible to TEs all season. (18th in DVOA vs TEs)
They have been at their worst as of late, allowing a league high 39 catches, and four TDs to TEs since Week 10. (most FPPG allowed to TEs during this span) Ebron has been a force in the redzone as a Colt, leading TEs in scoring opportunities (22), and TDs. (11) Those 22 chances inside the 20 are the 4th most for a non RB this season. He is almost guaranteed for a TD in this matchup and I think Ebron needs to be considered again in Week 15.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (25.9 DK PPG at home and The Pats are 20th in pass DVOA. In the past two home games that The Steelers were underdogs, Big Ben dominated, with 34 DK PPG. He is the top overall QB play of the slate, but is hard to get in at $6,600), Andrew Luck (26.8 DK PPG at home this season), and Lamar Jackson. (19.8 DK PPG as the starter, The Bucs are 28th in DVOA, and The Ravens have the second highest implied team total, at 27 points)
RB: Saquon Barkley (32 DK PPG in his last four and would see a decent bump if OBJ sits again), Ezekiel Elliot (an insane 31 touches and 33 DK PPG in his last five. Indy is 5th in rush DVOA, but 26th in pass DVOA to RBs. In a more meaningful game, I prefer to attack Zeke, at a cheaper price, over Barkley), Joe Mixon (31 touches last week and 27.8 DK points vs a #10 ranked Chargers’ defense. Now, he is at home, taking on The Raiders, who are dead last in DVOA), Jeffrey Wilson (if Matt Breida sits or is limited, Wilson would be a nice value. In these past two, with Breida missing last week, and only playing ten snaps in the game before, Wilson is producing 15.5 DK PPG, and touching the ball 23.5 times. Finally, this matchup vs The Seahawks is great, with them ranking 19th in rush DVOA, and allowing the 3rd most FPPG to RBs since Week 10), and Chris Ivory (if LeSean McCoy is out, Ivory would be the main ball carrier, as a home favorite, over The Lions, who are 20th in rush DVOA. Ivory is also a capable receiver and he would have no problems producing double digit DK points, if the starter)
WR: Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster (double digit targets in three of his last four games and is scoring 27.3 DK PPG in his past four), Amari Cooper (obviously exploded last Sunday, for a slate breaking 52.7 DK points, and this week, he goes against The Colts, who are 19th in DVOA vs #1 WRs. For a reasonable $7,500, Cooper has one of the highest ceilings of this slate), Julian Edelman (18.4 DK PPG in his last four and PIT is 21st vs #2 WRs), Kenny Stills (Stills is clearly benefitting from Ryan Tannehill being back. Last week, vs The Pats, he exploded for 30.5 DK points on nine targets, and he is now averaging 15.3 DK PPG in these last three with Tannehill at QB. The Vikings are a strong secondary, ranking 8th in pass DVOA, but Stills should continue to see decent volume, and avoid top CB Xavier Rhodes), and Robert Foster (in his first full time role, Foster hauled in 7/8 targets for 104 yards vs The Jets. He only missed three snaps last week and he should see decent volume again, vs The Lions, who are second to last in pass DVOA)
TE: Rob Gronkowski (finally went off, catching all eight of his targets for 107 yards and a score vs The Dolphins. He could have another vintage performance this Sunday, with The Steelers ranking 31st in DVOA vs TEs, and him averaging a large 27.5 DK PPG in his last three meetings with The AFC foe) and Cameron Brate. (solid 11.13 DK PPG in these last three with Jameis Winston under center and The Ravens have given up the 5th most FPPG to TEs since Week 10. They are 26th vs the position this season)
D: Jags, Ravens, Bears (15.5 DK PPG in their last six and at home), and Bills. (The Lions have a low implied team total of 18.3 points and Matthew Stafford is currently dealing with a back injury)