Welcome back guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 15. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the MAIN SLATE that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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QB: Nick Foles: (5,500) With QB Carson Wentz (knee) done and headed to IR, Foles will now operate this offense and hopefully will play well enough to keep The Eagles’ Super Bowl hopes alive. No, I don’t think Foles is even close to the player Wentz was this season, but he will be a serviceable fantasy option for the rest of this season and in the playoffs. Absolutely, he has had his bad showings in the past, but we all can’t forget how well this man played back in the 2013 season. He started 10 games, finished 8-2 in these starts and totaled 2,891 yards, which was 9.1 yards per attempt, with an excellent 27 TDs, and only two picks. These numbers obviously make him look like an absolute stud and he clearly has his flaws, but the receiving weapons he has to work in this Eagles offense now are arguably better than the ones he had in 2013. He will be getting TE Zach Ertz (concussion) back, which is huge for him, and I think Foles will do just fine getting the ball to Ertz and WR Alshon Jeffery, at least for this week’s matchup vs the hopeless Giants, who have allowed the most DK points to QBs this season.
They just recently lost their top CB Janoris Jenkins (ankle, IR) and even though they have some decent CBs to still run out there with Jenkins done, they still rank 25th pass DVOA, and are currently rating as 2.8 opponent +/- for starting QBs. This Eagles offense should still be a strong unit and Vegas agrees, as they have a current implied team total of 24 points, which is a number that has slightly moved up since the opening lines. This defense has allowed two passing TDs in each of their last two games and I think Foles continues this trend for the third consecutive week. He should approach 20 DK points in this spot and I think Foles is the best low end QB target of the week. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
WR: Chris Hogan: (5,500) Hogan put up a dud last week in his return after missing four games with a shoulder injury, only catching one pass for five yards, but as a whole, this Pats offense had easily their worst offensive showing of this season in the loss to The Dolphins. He clearly was back to full strength from the shoulder injury, as Hogan played 90.2% of the snaps in The Monday night game. He is in a very nice position to bounce back this week in a pivotal AFC matchup with The Steelers. They have a tough pass defense, ranking 10th in pass DVOA this season, but Hogan by far has the best individual matchup for a Pats’ WR this week. #1 WR Brandin Cooks and slot WR Danny Amendola have tough matchups vs Steelers’ CBs Artie Burns and Mike Hilton, who both have high PFF grades of 76.6, compared to Hogan, who will mostly face off against CB Coty Sensabaugh, who has been the weak link of this secondary, currently representing a low PFF grade 47.3, and allowing 0.6 fantasy points per route.
Prior to his shoulder injury, Hogan was having a solid season averaging 14 DK points per game, a 17.5% target share, while seeing 12 red zone opportunities during the first eight games of the season, which was the most for any Patriot pass catcher during this span, even including TE Rob Gronkowski. He converted four of those 12 targets in to TDs and he has a great opportunity to get back in the end zone this Sunday vs The Steelers, who have given up five total TDs to WRs in their last three games. Hogan’s price got all the way up to $7,000 back in October when he was healthy, and this $5,500 price is a serious discount for a player who will be playing almost every snap in a game that has by far the highest O/U of Week 15 at 54 points. There are the obvious expensive ways of getting exposure to this AFC shootout and I don’t recommended shying away from them, but in GPPs if you want to somewhat separate yourself, Hogan seems like a logical choice that could really pay off. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) UPDATE: Even though he basically played the whole game last week, Hogan out of nowhere is not expected to play today because of his shoulder. Remove him from your lineups.
RB: Alex Collins: (5,000) Simply put, Collins is a player who cannot be ignored anymore. Just last week, the second year back went nuts for 166 yards and TD on 20 touches vs The Panthers who are the 8th best defense in terms of DVOA this season. (27.6 DK points) This game was the continuation of the tear he has been on over the last month, averaging 21 DK points on 20 touches per game over his last four. RB Danny Woodhead is back from the hamstring injury, but he has been barely involved in the rushing attack, as he is only averaging 2.5 carries in these past four games. He is going to continue to see targets in the passing game, but Collins has also remained active as a receiver even with Woodhead back in the mix, catching 2.5 passes per game during this time.
At a first glance, Collins’ matchup this week is very weak vs The Browns who rank 1st in rush DVOA this year, but they have slipped over their past three games, allowing over 26 fantasy points to opposing backfields, which is the 10th most in the NFL since Week 12. Also, The Ravens are 7.5 point favorites in this game, which is huge news for Collins since he became the lead back in Baltimore. In the three games since the start of November that The Ravens have been favorited, Collins is averaging 18.2 DK points a game, which is an excellent 8.87 DK point +/-. All these things are adding up for Collins to have another big game this coming Sunday, but it seems that he will most likely go over looked again, with some very chalky RB plays getting everyone’s attention. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) The $200 price increase he saw from last week isn’t even close to what to should have happened, and at only $5,000, Collins is an elite GPP target, that I wouldn’t mind using in cash.
QB: Blake Bortles, DeShone Kizer (Ravens look scary on paper, but they just allowed Big Ben to throw for 506 yards on them last week), Case Keenum, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
RB: Gio Bernard (if Mixon is out), Samaje Perine, Duke Johnson Jr., Jamaal Williams (still dominated the touches last week and is now averaging an awesome 28 DK points over his last three games. He looks like a great GPP pivot play off the Packers’ WRs that seem to be trendy with QB Aaron Rodgers making his return), and Rex Burkhead.
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Robert Woods (expected to make his return vs this banged up Seahawks secondardy that has allowed the third most fantasy points to WRs over their last three games), Sterling Shepard, Nelson Agholor, Corey Coleman, Stefon Diggs (targets should be up with Rudolph expected to be out), and Rishard Matthews (quiet game last week in his first game back from a hamstring injury, but this is a nice spot vs The Niners, who just allowed Texans’ WR Deandre Hopkins to drop 39.9 DK points on them last week).
TE: Zach Ertz, David Morgan (should see most of the work with Rudolph out. Is only $2,500), Jesse James (Vance McDonald has been ruled out, James should be the featured TE), Ricky Seals-Jones (TE Jermaine Gresham is now out with an illness. The Cardinals have really held back RSJ’s snaps, but with Gresham out, Seals-Jones should have to play more, as Gresham has been averaging 75% of the snaps this season. Also this a very nice spot vs The Redskins who have allowed the third most DK points to TEs), Hunter Henry, Charles Clay, Greg Olsen (did nothing last week, but played 92% of snaps. I don’t know about you, but something has to happen and I feel like it’s soon with him playing a full game with no set backs last week), and Stephen Anderson (sucked last week, but led the way with 72% of the snaps, will remain the featured TE this week and should come with a very low ownership after he was one of the chalk plays of Week 14).
D: Redskins, Packers, Bills, and Niners.