Alex here, and below are my favorite values for the Week 16 DraftKings’ main Sunday Slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to be on the lookout for my Week 16 DraftKings Sleeper Picks, that will be posted later in the week. @Hunta512.
QB: Nick Foles: (4,700)
For the second straight week, paying down at QB seems like the best move. Foles has already been confirmed the starter for this Sunday’s must win matchup vs The Texans. In his first start since Week 2, Foles may have not put up a high fantasy score (10.3 DK points), but he was solid under center this past Sunday night, completing 24/31 passes for 270 yards and a pick, in the huge win over The Rams. Los Angeles is the 8th best pass defense in the league and this week’s spot vs The Texans is much better, with them ranking 22nd in pass DVOA for the season, and allowing the 3rd most FPPG to QBs since Week 10.
Additionally, for a more recent sample, in their last three games, they have given up the most passing yards in the league, and five throwing TDs. This game will be at home for The Eagles and they are sporting a solid implied team total of 24.25 points. I am not expecting a Super Bowl MVP type performance from Foles, but he should throw for at least one TD, and approach 300 yards in this positive matchup, which would be plenty, considering he is still priced as a back up.
RB: Ezekiel Elliot: (9,000)
Elliot is going to be the highest owned player of this slate (31-40% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but it is for very good reason. Coming off an embarrassing shutout loss to The Colts, The Cowboys are now playing with their backs against the wall. The Eagles and Redskins both won last week and now Dallas only sits one game ahead of these teams for the divisional lead of The NFC East. Luckily, Zeke will be back at home, facing off against The Bucs, who are 31st rush DVOA.
Vegas is currently giving The Cowboys the 4th highest implied team total of the main slate (28.5 points) and favoriting them by 10 points. In the first five home games that Zeke and The Cowboys were favorited this season, he produced 27 DK PPG. Plus, even including last week (18.8 DK points), Elliot is averaging 30.5 DK PPG and 30 touches in last six. He should touch the ball 25-30 times and score 25+ DK points in this crucial game.
WR: Robby Anderson: (4,500)
Ever since Sam Darnold returned, Anderson has been the #10 fantasy WR in all of football. He has scored a TD in each of these last two games and is seeing a team high 30.5% target share, which has helped him to 20.1 DK PPG. This Sunday, The Jets are in a favorable spot, at home, vs The Packers, who are officially eliminated from The Playoffs.
Their defense has been below average all season (22nd in DVOA), particularly vs the pass. (24th in pass DVOA) More so, they are 22nd in DVOA vs #1 WRs, and 29th against deep passes. (Anderson is 7th in deep pass catch rate this year) He isn’t a lock to find the end zone again, but Anderson should produce value, assuming the high volume continues.
TE: Chris Herndon: (3,100)
In Week 15, Herndon had a solid outing vs The Texans, catching 3/4 targets for 53 yards in the loss. (8.3 DK points) He ran a season high 35 routes in this game, with 33 of them coming from the slot. This was due to slot WR Qunicy Enunwa (ankle) being out and he has already been ruled out for this coming Sunday vs The Packers. This should keep Herndon in the slot for a good chuck of this game, which is awesome news for his fantasy stock.
This Green Bay defense has had issues all season long with TEs (22nd in DVOA vs TEs) and they have also struggled when defending short passes (20th in short pass DVOA), especially down the middle of the field. (25th vs middle of the field passes) Herndon’s upside isn’t the greatest, but he looks like the most viable cheap option at the position, that should be able to manage double digit DK points.
QB: Drew Brees (28.7 DK PPG at home this season and as expected, The Saints have the highest implied team total of the slate) and Andrew Luck. (should rebound this week, vs The Giants, who are 23rd in pass DVOA. Prior to the blowout win over The Cowboys, that only required 27 attempts by Luck, he was scoring 25.5 DK PPG in his last ten)
RB: Saquon Barkely (still logged every single snap last week and his price has dropped a very dramatic $1,500. The Colts are a tough spot on the ground, ranking 4th in rush DVOA, but Barkley has proved to be matchup proof, averaging 25.8 DK PPG this season), Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon (dealing with a wrist injury, but he is averaging 28.9 DK PPG in his last two, on an elite 30 touches per game. Now, he faces The Browns, who are 23rd in rush DVOA), Dalvin Cook (went off for 32.3 DK points vs The Dolphins in the first game under the new OC and this was the first time he has touched the ball 20+ times, since Week 1. He is now supplying 21.7 DK PPG in his last four and should see 20+ touches again, as a 5.5 point favorite over The Lions), Jaylen Samuels (if James Conner is out again. Samuels is scoring 19.2 DK PPG in these last two and led the way with 21 touches in last Sunday’s win over The Pats), Marlon Mack (16.24 DK PPG in the ten The Colts have been favorited this season), Jamal Williams (will get the start with Aaron Jones on IR. The Jets are 20th in rush DVOA and Williams is scoring a solid 11.5 DK PPG when he has seen 15+ touches this season), and Elijah McGuire. (16.2 DK PPG in the last two, behind two TDs, and 21 touches a game. Oh, and The Packers are 25th in rush DVOA, and playing for nothing at this point)
WR: Julio Jones, Deandre Hopkins (42 DK points vs The Browns this past Saturday and he has now seen double digit targets in each of his last two games. Now, Hopkins enters a prime matchup, vs The Eagles, who are giving up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs since Week 10. Hopkins will mostly see CB Rasul Douglas, which has resulted in PFF giving Nuke the biggest advantage for a WR in Week 16), Michael Thomas (25.7 DK PPG in The Superdome and this is a $500 price drop from two weeks ago. The Steelers are a tough secondary, but Thomas and Brees are matchup proof at home), Julian Edelman, T.Y. Hilton (if active. He is scoring 19.8 DK PPG at home and The Giants are dead last in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Alshon Jeffery (Jeffery has led this offense with a 27% target share in these past two and 22 DK PPG. Last week was the first time he has played with Foles this season, but the reigning Super Bowl MVP seems to favor Jeffery, more so than Carson Wentz, which is great news, with their opponent, The Texans, ranking second to last in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Robert Foster (a great 22.1 DK PPG in these past two and he should see heavy volume, as a 13 point underdog vs The Pats), and Dante Pettis. (tough spot vs The Bears, but The Niners will also be playing from behind, and in his last four, Pettis is scoring 19.4 DK PPG)
TE: Zach Ertz (is dealing with an ankle injury, but this matchup vs The Texans is outstanding, with them ranking 29th in DVOA vs TEs, and giving up the 5th most FPPG to the position since Week 10. Most importantly, this is the cheapest Ertz has been all season, and it’s do or die for Philly) and Evan Engram. (if Odell Beckham Jr. is out again, Engram should see increased volume. In these past two without the star wideout, Engram has seen 17 total targets, and is scoring 13.1 DK PPG. This week, he takes on The Colts, who are 22nd in TE DVOA)
D: Bears, Rams, Cowboys, Patriots (Bills only have an implied team of 16 points, which is the second lowest, and The Pats are at home), and Falcons. (Taylor Heinicke, an undrafted QB will start in place of Cam Newton, and even though The Falcons are a terrible defense, they should produce a decent fantasy output vs this inexperienced QB)