What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 16. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the MAIN SLATE that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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TE: Eric Ebron: (3,700) After putting up very pedestrian numbers for most of this season, Ebron out of nowhere has become Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford’s #1 target over their last two games. In these two victories, the TE is averaging 16.35 DK points, leading this offense with 24% of the targets, at nine a game, while also seeing 23% of the red zone opportunities. He will look to continue this improved play this Sunday vs a depleted Bengals defense that ranks 30th in DVOA vs TEs this season and has allowed a TD to a TE in each of their last two games, while allowing TEs to catch 80% of their targets during this span. It’s hard to say he will lead the offense in targets again, but I think his usage should stay relatively high for the rest of the season.
Ebron should see 5+ targets once again with the potential for more if RB Theo Riddick (wrist) is out. Riddick, as we all know is an excellent receiving back and he has seen a high 13 total targets over these last two games, which would be a rather large void if he sits this week out. I think Ebron has a really solid chance of topping 10 DK points for the third straight game, with great upside if he can score. It’s early, but it looks like he might go under the radar this week. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) This is always subject to change, but either way, we already know that Greg Olsen will be the mega chalk and a player like Ebron who has shown nice upside recently, is a very enticing gamble at this low of a cost in GPPs.
QB: Jameis Winston: (5,700) It hasn’t been perfect, but Winston has been putting up solid fantasy numbers since his return, throwing multiple TDs in all three starts, averaging 21 DK points a game. Last week, he looked much more poised and confident than his prior two games, throwing for 299 yards, three TDs, and no picks vs The Falcons on Monday Night Football. (25.76 DK points) In this start, he completed 77.1% of his passes, which is the highest completion rate he has ever posted since joining the league in 2015. This week he heads to Carolina to take on The Panthers, who rank 9th in pass DVOA for the season. Yes, this looks awful by that ranking, but this defense has been the complete opposite of a good pass defense over the last month, allowing 23 DK points a game to QBs over their last four games, which is the most allowed since Week 11.
The Bucs’ opening implied team total of only 18.5 points isn’t great, but I think this projection is rather low for the way this offense looked last week, especially against this Panther’s defense that has allowed their opponents to score 20 or more points in five straight games. I expect their total to move up as the week goes on and the big spread of ten points in favor of Panthers should only benefit Winston’s fantasy value, as he should have to approach 40 pass attempts in this matchup. When you look back at his log, he has been solid when he has to air it out, with him averaging 22 DK points in the last seven games he has attempted at least 35 passes. His price tag is very favorable at only $5,700 and he is my strongest QB value of Week 16.
RB: James White: (4,100) RB Rex Burkhead is doubtful and expected to miss this week’s game with a knee injury. This open’s up a good amount of usage and snaps for this Pats’ backfield, as Burkhead has been playing 32.3% of the snaps, touching the ball 11 times a game, scored five TDs, and was averaging 16.2 DK points a game since Week 7. Pat’s RB Mike Gillislee is expected to rejoin the team after being inactive the last six games, but quite honestly, it’s hard to expect him to do much of anything in his first game back, particularly as a receiver, as he was never targeted once in eight games he has played as Pat this season. He will most likely just be active for insurance purposes and White and RB Dion Lewis should handle most of the work this week with Burkhead sidelined. I think Lewis will lead this offense in carries, but White should also see some ground work and should be much more active in the passing attack. If we go back and look at the three early games Burkhead missed this year, White was much more active, averaging 11 DK points, while seeing 22 targets, which was second on the team at 18.3% during this three game stretch.
They will always spread the ball out, but he should see double digit touches this week, vs a Bills defense that has allowed an average of over 29 fantasy points a game to opposing backfields in their past three. They rank 28th in rush DVOA and 18th in pass DVOA vs RBs this season. The Patriots being big favorites (-12.5) never seems like a plus for backs, but this New England will pour it on no matter the score (29.75 team total), and I think this Bills team keeps this game closer than the spread suggests, with their QB Tyrod Taylor back full healthy, their playoff hopes on line, and going against this Patriots’ defense that has allowed their opponents to score 24 and 27 points in their last two contests. The Patriots will always be a headache for fantasy, because predicting which RB will be used and produce is such a hard task, but Burkhead has become a huge piece in this offense, and with him now out of the picture, I think they go back to White, who is a player they have relied on heavily before in key situations. No doubt there is risk here, but in DraftKings full PPR scoring system, I believe White is a fine play that should out produce his price tag. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) UPDATE: White is expected to be inactive due to an ankle injury. This is unfortunate because his price is so friendly, but this instantly pushes Dion Lewis way up, as he should handle most of the ground work and most of the passing downs.
QB: Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Drew Stanton, Matthew Stafford, Mitch Trubisky.
RB: Kapri Bibbs (nice value if Perine is out), C.J. Anderson (over 20 touches in each of his last two games), Mike Davis (SEA offense should bounce back this week and his still the main guy here), Theo Riddick, Joe Mixon (if he is active), and Jordan Howard.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Evans (stack with Winston), Doug Baldwin, Dede Westbrook (if Lee is out again), Josh Gordon, Trent Taylor (could see some more looks with Ramsey looking up Goodwin), Kendall Wright (19.4 DK points in his last two games and The Browns are allowing 4th most fantasy points to WRs over their last three games), and Damien Byrd.
TE: Antonio Gates (Hunter Henry is on IR. Gates should be used much more, particularly in the redzone. He is a bare minimum $2,500.), Jimmy Graham, and Charles Clay.
D: Chargers, Chiefs, Lions, and Cardinals.