Alex here, and these are my DraftKings Sleeper Picks for the Week 16 Sunday main slate. If you looking for cash game plays, be sure to read my first article for Week 16, via this link. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
TE: Eric Ebron: (5,700)
Ebron was a huge disappointment this past Sunday (1.8 DK points vs The Cowboys), but I really think was an anomaly in the grand scheme of things. With The Colts leading the whole game and getting no fight back from The Cowboys (23-0), Andrew Luck only attempted 27 passes, which is the lowest amount of volume has had in seven games. Furthermore, prior to this shut out win, Ebron was seeing a 24.2% target share in the previous games, which only trailed T.Y. Hilton on this team. During that time, Ebron was scoring 18.1 DK PPG as The Colts’ featured TE.
They need to win this weekend to keep their playoff hopes alive, sitting one game out of the wildcard, and I think Ebron gets right back to being one of the top fantasy TEs. Overall, for the year, The Giants rank well against the position (10th in TE DVOA), but their season is over, and they still rank 23rd in pass DVOA. Ebron has multiple TD upside and after last week’s dud, the TE should come with a far less ownership in GPPs. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
WR: Davante Adams: (8,500)
The Packers won’t be in the playoffs, but Adams and Aaron Rodgers still have some business to take care of. With Jordy Nelson gone, Adams has been a stud as Rodger’s number one target and in these final two games, he has a chance to become The Packers’ all-time leader in receptions and yards for a single season. Adams needs 13 catches and 205 yards over the next two weeks to accomplish those milestones. Both him and Rodgers acknowledged this on Wednesday to the media. Adams said “I’m not counting, but that would be cool” and “hopefully A Rods counting”. Then, Rodgers went on to say “I would love for him to break some records, for sure”. (VIA Packers.com)
With their playoff hopes dead and many players being placed on IR this past week, it seems that helping Adams might be one of the team’s only goals this weekend. Rodgers should feed the WR and they are in a prime spot for success, going a Jets’ secondary that has allowed the most FPPG to WRs since Week 10. They have given up the highest YPC in The NFL during this span (15.99) and 70 total catches to WR groups. Furthermore, Randall Cobb (concussion) will be out, adding even more stability to Adams’ high volume. Some people don’t like to fall for narratives, but I don’t think this is a situation that should be overlooked this Sunday.
WR: Amari Cooper: (7,500)
Cooper, like all of The Cowboys, had a down game vs The Colts (8.3 DK points), but now, he heads back home, where has scored 9.6 more DK PPG, since being traded to Dallas. Additionally, this is a must win for The Cowboys, and Cooper will be facing one of the worst secondaries in all of football. The Bucs currently sit at 29th in pass DVOA and DVOA vs #1 WRs.
The last time Cooper went against Tampa Bay, he was still with The Raiders, but he destroyed them for 173 yards and a TD. (38.3 DK points) The game script might not be in his favor (DAL -7.5), but Cooper still presents one of the best ceilings in all of football. He should be a big part of why The Cowboys win this game and I love attacking him in GPPs, at a slightly depressed ownership. (13-16% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
QB: Aaron Rodgers (stack with Adams), Dak Prescott (stack with Cooper. Dak is scoring 22.43 DK PPG in the four home games since The Cowboys acquired Cooper), and Taylor Heinicke. (obviously there is plenty of question marks with a rookie QB making his first career start, but Heinicke is at the lowest possible price for a QB. At the worst, he should be able to hit double digit DK points vs this Falcons’ defense, that is dead last in DVOA)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (many are questioning what his role will be, with The Panthers essentially calling it a season, and sitting Cam Newton, but if McCaffrey does see close to his usual huge workload, he should feast on this Falcons’ defense, that he already has a 30.9 DK PPG outing against this season), Nick Chubb (he should see a ton of volume, with The Browns favored by ten points, over The Bengals, who are allowing the most carries, and second most FPPG to RBs since Week 10), and Kalen Ballage. (is expected to take on the early down role, with Frank Gore done. Last week, after Gore went down, Ballage produced 123 yards and a TD, on 12 carries vs The Vikings)
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster (he claims he will be active for this game, despite suffering a groin injury in practice earlier this week. With Marshon Lattimore covering Antonio Brown, things should open for Juju vs this Saint’s defense, that ranks 30th in DVOA vs #2 WRs. Plus, Smith-Schuster has been much better on the road this season, scoring 11 more DK PPG when away from Heinz field), Adam Thielen (many will be off him, with him only scoring 3.9 DK points last week vs The Dolphins. Now, he could be busy with Darius Slay guarding Stefon Diggs, and this Lions’ defense allowing the 5th most FPPG to WRs since Week 10), Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley (would see high volume if Julio Jones was out), Josh Reynolds (coming off a 12 target game last week and he could see double digit targets again, with Patrick Peterson locking things up on the outside), and Chris Hogan. (with Josh Gordon now out of the picture, Hogan should go back to playing high snaps. Even though he has had a really lackluster season, Hogan warrants consideration with The Pats having a high implied team total of 29 points, and their opponent being his former team, The Bills)
TE: George Kittle and Blake Jarwin. (Jarwin has seen seven targets in each of The Cowboys last two games and with Geoff Swaim placed on IR, Jarwin should stay in a larger role going forward, as this teams #1 TE. He should catch a handful of balls and has a chance at scoring vs this Bucs’ defense, that is 30th vs TEs this year)
D: Browns, Cowboys, and Eagles. (The Eagles secondary is awful, but this defense is only $2,100, in a must win situation, at home, vs Deshuan Watson, who is the most sacked QB in all of football)