Happy Holidays everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 15. These are some of my favorite cheap plays of the week that should be low owned. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter.
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RB: Mark Ingram: (4,400) This Sunday The Saints play The Bucs in The Superdome in an expected shootout with a high O/U of 52 points. The Saints have been eliminated from playoff contention, but this is still a very important game, especially to Ingram. Last week he had a screaming match with Head Coah Sean Payton on the sideline after being pulled at the 2 yard line. Everyone thought he was angry about losing out on scoring the TD, but I think he was just frustrated that Saints aren’t giving him enough carries. Ingram has some big incentives in his contract and the main one he is chasing, with just two games left, is a $100,000 bonus if he tops a 1,000 yards this season.
He currently has 850 rushing yards so you know he will be running as hard as he can in these next two games. This week has a great chance to get a big chunk of that remaining 150 yards vs The Bucs who are 26th in DVOA vs RBs this year. This is a really nice situation for him with The Saints being three point favorites over The Bucs. In the six other games this season Ingram has played in with The Saints being favored, he is averaging an impressive 19.8 DK points. This is the cheapest he has been all season at $4,400 and he is my favorite RB GPP play of Week 16.
WR: Deandre Hopkins: (5,200) The benching of starting QB Brock Osweiler is the best news Hopkins has heard all season. After the 72 million dollar QB was benched, Hopkins had his most productive game in weeks, catching eight passes for 87 yards with QB Tom Savage under center. 16.7 DK points may not be the greatest outing, but the glaring stat to take away from this is that he saw a season high 17 targets which was 47% of Savage’s passes vs an underrated Jags secondary. The matchup isn’t any easier this week vs The Bengals who rank 12th in DVOA vs #1 WRs, but if he sees anywhere close to this kind of volume again, it’s hard for me not seeing him out producing his cheap $5,200 price tag.
We all know he is an elite talent, but no receiver can produce without the ball in his hands. Now I’m not saying Savage is anything special, but he is clearly more motivated to get Hopkins the ball than Osweiler ever was. He isn’t going to see 17 targets again, but he should see double digit targets this Saturday. Even though this isn’t the best matchup, the price is just too good to ignore Hopkins this weekend, with Savage throwing him passes.
WR: Marquis Lee: (4,300) Lee should come with a very low ownership after not catching a single pass on a low three targets last week. He was a very popular play in all formats and even though he salvaged 6.0 DK points returning a kick for TD, this was still a disappointing performance for him, after averaging a solid 14.1 DK points in the prior four games. In this span, he was receiving 22% of the team’s targets and scoring 1.21 fantasy points per target compared to Jags #1 WR Allen Robinson’s 17% of the team’s targets and a low 0.62 fantasy points per target.
Even though he didn’t see the targets last week, Lee has been the much more efficient receiver, and I think we see him bounce back this week vs The Titans, who allow the most DK points to opposing WRs this season. Both wideouts could easily have big games vs this secondary, but the matchup by the numbers is better for Lee, with The Titans ranking dead last in DVOA in vs #2 WRs and 6th vs # 1 WRs in 2016. After being one of highest owned players of Week 15, Fantasy Labs is currently projecting him with a low 2-4% ownership. With the expected low owenership he is a great GPP play this weekend and I like stacking him QB Blake Bortles whose price has rock bottom at $5,000.
QB: Blake Bortles, Matt Barkley, Cam Newton, and Andy Dalton.
RB: Jay Ajayi, LaGarrette Blount, Alfred Blue (if Lamar Miller is out), Frank Gore, Jeremy Hill, Jerrick McKinnon (if Adrian Peterson is out), Todd Gurley, and Thomas Rawls.
WR: Desean Jackson, Kenny Britt, Davante Parker, Jarvis Landry, Davante Adams, Willie Snead, Tyler Boyd/Brandon Lafell (Tyler Eifert is out and A.J. Green is questionable), Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin (Mathieu is out), J.J. Nelson, Ted Ginn Jr., Cameron Meredith, Chris Hogan, and Dontrell Inman.
TE: Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen, Daniel Brown, and Jermaine Gresham.
D: Chargers, Rams, and Packers.