Alex here, and below are my favorite values for the Week 17 DraftKings’ main Sunday Slate. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to be on the lookout for my Week 17 DraftKings Sleeper Picks, that will be posted later in the week. @Hunta512.
QB: Nick Foles: (5,900)
Both, Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger have something to play for, but they are priced accordingly, and both come as huge home favorites. This brings me to Foles, at a discount, for the second straight week. In a must win home matchup vs The Giants this past Sunday, Foles shined, completing 35/49 passes for 471 yards, four TDs, and one pick. (35.94 DK points) This was one of his best career starts and now, The Eagles are in another win or go home situation vs The Redskins.
To make the postseason and defend their Super Bowl title, Philly needs to win this game, and they also need to The Vikings to lose. Foles, as he always seems to do, should lead The Eagles to another win. The Redskins are a decent pass defense (10th in pass DVOA), but they have been eliminated from the playoff race, and quite honestly, outside of maybe The Bears (1st in DVOA), I don’t think there is a matchup that would stop me from rostering Foles in a do or die situation. He is just a clutch player and I am expecting at least two TDs and over 300 yards from Philadelphia’s hero.
RB: Damian Williams: (6,100)
Assuming Spencer Ware (hamstring) is out again, or limited, Williams needs to be in your lineups. With Ware absent and Kareem Hunt obviously gone these last two games, Williams has been a stud. (29.7 DK PPG) He is averaging 18 touches in these last two and is scoring 2.28 DK points with each opportunity. Even if Ware was active, I think they would rely still rely on Williams, and put Ware in Charcandrick West’s current role.
This is a big game for The Chiefs, as they need to win to secure home field throughout the postseason, and Vegas is giving them the highest implied team total of the week (33.75 points), vs this Oakland defense, that is 30th in DVOA. They have improved recently (14th least FPPG to RBs since Week 14), but their season is over, and not only do The Chiefs boast the highest implied team total, but they are also 13.5 point home favorites. The game flow should be perfect for Williams and he should close the season out with another 20+ DK point outing.
WR: Davante Adams: (8,000)
After a 11/71/1 line in the win over The Jets (24.1 DK points), Adams still needs two catches and 134 yards to break both The Packers’ single season records for yards and receptions. Aaron Rodgers was clearly thinking about these milestones, targeting Adams a season high 18 times vs The Jets. Now, they will get another attempt at making Adams one of Green Bay’s all-time great WRs, in front of The Packer faithful, at Lambeau Field. Adams told the media this past Sunday, “I would have loved to do that today, but being in front of the home fans, it definitely would be sweet.”
With The Packers officially out of The Playoffs, helping Adams will be their primary goal once again. His volume should stay at an extremely high level and I am projecting a minimum of 15 targets for Adams vs The Lions, who rank dead last in DVOA vs #1 WRs this season. They have allowed the second highest YPC average since Week 10 and in their six home games this season, that The Packers had an implied team total of 25 points or more, Adams is scoring 23.4 DK PPG. Even at $8,000, Adams is far too cheap for this scenario.
TE: Zach Ertz: (6,700)
Ertz was quiet in the first game with Foles back at QB (5.2 DK points vs The Rams), but he was dominate this past Sunday, catching 12/16 targets for 110 yards and two TDs vs The The Texans. (38 DK points) In another pivotal game, Ertz should lead this offense in targets again vs The Redskins. They have been stout against TEs this season (12th in DVOA vs TEs), but as I said above, this is a team that has zero to play for this coming Sunday.
Naturally, they should be a weaker unit as a whole, and Ertz is one of the best PPR options in the game. He is leading TEs in receptions (113, most ever by a TE) and targets (153) this season, while also scoring over 15 DK points in 9/15 games. Regardless of the matchup, I am going to rely on Ertz’s talent and pedigree in this crucial spot. He should score at least 15 DK points, with a ceiling close to 30, considering the circumstances.
QB: Patrick Mahomes (he scored 33 DK point vs this same Oakland defense in Week 13 and they need this win), Ben Roethlisberger (always better at home and The Bengals are dead last in DVOA. In the last three games in Pittsburgh, that The Steelers had an implied team total of 30 points or above, Ben is scoring 30.9 DK PPG), and Jameis Winston. (excluding that brutal matchup vs The Ravens, Winston is averaging 22.2 DK PPG in his last four, and The Falcons are a great spot, ranking 29th in pass DVOA. Plus, I am sure Winston would like to end the year with a win, to help his case as their starter for next season)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (even with them eliminated, CMC still saw 32 touches, and scored 32.8 DK points vs The Falcons. This week, he gets The Saints, who are expected to rest their starters, with the #1 seed in The NFC locked up. Assuming he stays in this massive role, McCaffrey is the top overall flex option), Saquon Barkley (26 touches last week and the matchup should be strong, with Dallas also playing for nothing), Jamaal Williams (in 95% of the snaps, with Aaron Jones on IR, Williams scored 27.6 DK points on 21 touches vs The Jets. This week is the same situation and Williams should handle 20+ touches, as a 7.5 point home favorite over The Lions. He is right there with Damian Williams in terms of value), C.J. Anderson (with Todd Gurley out, Anderson saw 21 touches and scored 26.2 DK points vs The Cardinals. The matchup isn’t as perfect this coming Sunday, vs The Niners, but Anderson is still viable, with Gurley confirmed to sit), Elijah McGuire (the game script isn’t going to be in his favor, but McGuire is an every player right now. He is scoring 18.6 DK PPG in his last three and The Pats are 20th in rush DVOA and 21st in DVOA vs passes to RBs), and Jeffrey Wilson. (Matt Brieda will be out and in the two previous games that Wilson saw 15+ touches this season, he is scoring 15.5 DK PPG. Plus, The Rams have been tough on the pass, ranking 8th in pass DVOA, but soft against the run, ranking 29th in rush DVOA)
WR: Antonio Brown (like with Ben, AB’s numbers have been better at home, and this is a must win, vs the worst rated defense in The NFL), Tyreek Hill (The Raiders are 31st in pass DVOA, but are 2nd in DVOA vs #1 WRs. I prefer Adams and Brown, but Hill is obviously still viable, in this big game), Deandre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Robert Woods (will avoid Richard Sherman from the slot and is averaging 18.8 DK PPG in his last five), Robby Anderson (a 33.3% target share in these last three with Sam Darnold at QB, which has helped be the 3rd best fantasy WR during that time. The Pats are also giving up the 7th most FPPG to WRs since Week 14 and rank 18th vs #1 WRs), Robert Foster (scoring 17.8 DK PPG in last three and The Dolphins are 22nd in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Chris Godwin (Desean Jackson is out and this Falcons’ defense is 29th in pass DVOA), Marquez Valdes-Scantling. (if Cobb remains out, MVS is a fine option. He played 80% of the snaps and saw nine target last week, sans Cobb. All the attention will go to Adams, but MVS is also a nice value in his own right, at only $3,900)
TE: Travis Kelce (The Raiders are dead last in DVOA vs TEs. The last time these two clubs faced, Kelce went off for a season best 42.8 DK points) and Chris Herndon. (Herndon caught 6/7 targets for 82 yards and a TD vs The Packers, and is Qunicy Enunwa will remain out, helping Herndon’s target share. Furthermore, The Pats may be tough on TEs, ranking 10th vs the position, but The Jets should have to throw a ton, as a 13.5 point road underdog vs the divisional foe)
D: Seahawks, Steelers, Ravens, and Chiefs. (the best value. They are averaging 10.1 DK PPG at home and The Raiders have a lower implied of 19.5 points)