Welcome back eveyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NFL Sleeper Picks for Week 17. These are some of my favorite cheap plays for the MAIN SLATE that should hopefully come with low ownerships. Like every NFL week, there are injury situations that you need to monitor all the way up until Sunday kick off. So be sure to be on Twitter all weekend and watch all the other major news outlets to see which players are active or inactive. As always if these picks help you win or if you need any advice, just let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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QB: Patrick Mahomes II: (4,700) With The Chiefs locked into the four seed in The AFC, they have decided to rest starting QB Alex Smith for their season finale vs The Broncos. The 10th overall pick in this year’s draft, Mahomes, who is out of Texas Tech, will draw the start for Chiefs in Week 17. From the way he played in the preseason, Mahomes looks like a very intriguing talent and there is a reason why he was top ten overall pick and the second QB off the board in this past draft. In the four preseason games he played in, he looked very comfortable, confident, and made some impressive plays for a rookie. Yes, it was preseason, but in the four games he played for The Chiefs this past summer, he completed 63% of his passes, averaged 7.2 yards per attempt, threw for four TDs and no picks, while also chipping in with 44 yards on the ground, at 5.5 yards per attempt. You can check out his top five plays from the preseason through this link. He is very athletic and not only does he have a very strong arm, but he is also a duel threat, who can get it done as rusher if necessary, giving him a solid ceiling as a fantasy player. On top of these stats and highlights, Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid said this week that Mahomes has “come a long way” since preseason.
On paper his matchup is ugly vs The Broncos, but as the season has go on, they have become a weaker unit, that should be vulnerable this week, as they are completely out of the playoff hunt and have nothing to play for in this game. They currently rank 15th in pass DVOA, have allowed the third most passing TDs in the league this season, and have given up an average of 19 DK points a game to opposing QBs over their past two games. The Chiefs have a low implied team total of only 17 points which makes sense, given this is Mahomes first career start and that The Chiefs’ most important skill players are also expected to be rested (Hunt, Hill, and Kelce), but I wouldn’t let this shy you away from rostering the rookie at this very cheap price. Realistically, at only $4,700, we are only looking for 15 DK points out of him and I think we see him approach 20 DK points this Sunday. With his best pass catchers being rested or limited, it’s hard to pick a player to stack Mahomes with, and quite honestly, I think the best strategy here is to go with him alone in lineups, or naked as the DFS world would like to say. Without question there is risk here, but the reward outweighs the risk with a talent like Mahomes at this cheap of salary, and he is a fine GPP option that I am also comfortable with in cash games.
WR: Josh Docston: (4,400) Docston hasn’t shined as the Redskins’ top outside WR, but he is still leading this Redskins’ offense in snaps and targets (22.2%) over their last four games. After facing some very tough matchups for WRs including The Cardinals, Chargers, Broncos over the last three weeks, he will take on The Giants this Sunday, who are a team that wants to lose to help their chances of getting the number one overall pick in this coming draft. Their secondary has been a disaster with CB Janoris Jenkins on IR, with them allowing the third most DK points to WRs over their last four games. (1.4 opponent +/-) On top of this unit being beat up and most likely have little to no motivation, they will be without CB Eli Apple, arguably their best remaining CB, as the team has been suspended him for this week’s game due to a conduct issue, further showing you that they have no intention of winning this game.
The Skins are out of the playoff hunt, but they should still play their starters fully this week. Especially as a rookie, Docston should play most of the snaps and should be hyped up and ready to end this disappointing season with a bang to show this coaching staff that should still try to go forward with him as one of their main WRs next season. He scored last week vs The Broncos and he has a really strong chance of scoring again vs this Giants defense that has allowed four total WR TDs over their last two games. The Giants rank 24th in deep pass DVOA and with another body gone from their group of corners, I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw Docston haul in a long one this Sunday. The price tag is up and the floor is low, but for GPPs, Docston is the exact type of gamble I want to take in Week 17.
WR: Josh Reynolds: (3,000) The three starting WRs for The Rams haven’t been ruled out, but they are expected to be very limited or possibly might not even see the field, after The Rams have already decided to rest QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley, and Head Coach Sean McVay said Thursday that the offense “won’t see much” this Sunday vs The Niners. So, assuming WRs Cooper Kupp, Sammy Watkins, and Robert Woods are rested or play only a series or two, Reynolds will be the #1 WR for The Rams by default. Reynolds is a solid talent and he has already showed us this season that he can be a serviceable WR when needed. In the three games that top WR Robert Woods missed this year, Reynolds filled in as The Rams’ #3 WR, and did his job averaging seven DK points a game, while playing 70% of the snaps, and seeing 14 targets. I get it, those numbers aren’t anything to brag about, but this week should he play close to 90% of the snaps and lead this team in targets.
During that stretch, where he was playing as #3 wideout with Woods out, he was averaging 1.42 DK points per target, and if he sees double digit targets, which isn’t out of the question, Reynolds has an excellent chance of getting us 10+ DK points, which is all we really need at his bare minimum salary, going against a NIners defense that ranks 30th in DVOA vs #1 WRs and has allowed the fourth most DK points to WRs over their last four games. The biggest concern here is that it won’t be Goff throwing passes to Reynolds, it will be third year pro, Sean Mannion out of Oregon State. This will be the QB’s first ever career start. So we don’t have any prior games to fall back on for data, but in the preseason he was solid under center for The Rams, completing 64.5% of his passes, for 490 yards and two TDs with no picks on 76 attempts. I’m sure he won’t come out there and light it up, but this matchup is great, with The Niners ranking dead last in pass DVOA, and I am sure he will be trying to rely on Reynolds for most of this game. He should exceed value at his $3,000 price tag and I think he is a decent punt play that is worth a look with his low expected ownership of 2-4% in GPPs. (via Fantasy Labs)
QB: Sean Mannion, Russell Wilson, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
RB: Gio Bernard (if Mixon is out), Wayne Gallman, Alex Collins, C.J. Anderson (quietly is averaging 24 DK points over these last two weeks and is getting 26.5 touches a game), and Branden Oliver (if Melvin Gordon (ankle) is out).
WR: Marquise Goodwin (nice bounce back spot after facing The Jags last week. This Rams team is planning on resting key players and their defense should be a weaker unit overall), Stefon Diggs (has seen more targets than Thelien in the last two games), Demarcus Robinson (is expected to play a good amount this week with Hill being rested. If you watched the video I linked to above of Mahomes top five plays from the preseason, you can see these two rookies definitely have some chemistry. He is an option that could be considered in a Mahomes stack), Larry Fitzgerald, Brandin Cooks (if Hogan is out again), Keelan Cole, Eli Rogers (if Juju or Bryant are rested), Martavis Bryant (if Juju was rested), and Kenny Golladay.
TE: Antonio Gates (will be decently popular, but is a strong play in this must win game. I like the idea of using him and Gronk together in GPPs, playing two TEs together shouldn’t be a popular strategy this week), Eric Ebron (keeps producing and is now averaging 17.3 DK points in his past three games), George Kittle, and Demetrius Harris (assuming Kelce is rested, is also someone you could stack with Mahomes).
D: Niners, Browns, Pats, and Vikings.