Alex here, and these are my DraftKings Sleeper Picks for the Week 17 Sunday main slate. If you looking for cash game plays, be sure to read my first article for Week 17, via this link. As always, be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and if you need any advice, feel free to ask me on Twitter. @Hunta512.
WR: Kenny Golladay: (6,600)
Golladay has been very hit or miss lately, but each of his last five opponents have ranked inside the top 11 in pass DVOA. He has still seen a team high 26.7% target share during this stretch, with that number rising to an enormous 32.8% in these past two games, with Bruce Ellington (hamstring) on IR. Now, Golladay will end the year vs The Packers (27th in pass DVOA and 24th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), who are by far the weakest secondary he has faced in almost three months. In their first game since being officially eliminated from the postseason, this already soft Green Bay secondary, let Sam Darnold throw for 341 and three TDs (29.04 DK points), while also allowing his top WR, Robby Anderson, to catch 9/13 targets, for a season high 140 yards, and a score. (32 DK points)
I am not discrediting anything Anderson has done (#3 fantasy WR last three weeks), but I just think Golladay is the superior talent. He saw an elite 15 targets this past Sunday vs The Vikings and if Golladay can see this type of volume again, which is possible (GB -7.5), he should feast on this hopeless defense. Golladay exposed The Packers for a 4/98/1 line in Week 5 (19.8 DK points) and we should see an even better outing in Week 17. I don’t think he will miss this game, but be sure to watch Golladay’s status, with him currently listed as questionable with a chest injury. If anything, this will just help his already depressed ownership. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
WR: Robert Foster: (5,100)
Foster only scored 9.2 DK points vs The Patriots, but he just missed on a few plays that would have made this a much bigger day. In the two previous games, Foster was playing great football, topping 100 yards in each game. (22.1 DK PPG) He has seen a 20.41% target share in these past three games and 19 of his targets this season have been over 20 yards long.
This Week 17 matchup is perfect for Foster, with The Dolphins giving up the 2nd highest YPC average this year, and ranking 24th in pass DVOA. Also, I think it’s important to note, Foster and The Bills will be in Buffalo, where he is scoring 9.1 more DK PPG in 2018. His big play ability gives him a rather high ceiling relative to his price and Foster is a sneaky GPP play, that most won’t be thinking about with 15 games on this slate.
QB: Aaron Rodgers: (6,300)
Like last week, everyone is on Jamaal Williams, and Davante Adams, but I don’t see Rodgers getting much buzz. Even with no playoff implications, Rodgers is coming off one of his best fantasy games is over two years. (45.88 DK points vs The Jets) Yes, this score is very high due to a rare pair of rushing TDs, but Rodgers still threw for 442 yards and two TDs. 73% of their plays were passing and this trend should continue, with Adams still chasing The Packers’ all-time single season records for both receptions and yards by a WR.
Plus, as I talked about above, this Green Bay defense looked awful last week, and Detroit should be able to score on them, making this a better overall game environment. (45 O/U game total) Rodgers should be forced into 40+ attempts and I could see him throwing for close to 400 yards and three TDs, with this Lions’ defense ranking dead last in pass DVOA. (4th most FPPG to QBs since Week 10 and Rodgers scored 33.68 DK points vs them in Week 5) For a few GPP lineups, I will be stacking Rodgers, Williams, and Adams, with Golladay coming back on the other end.
QB: Josh Allen and Sam Darnold. (Darnold has scored 25.33 DK PPG in his last two and he should have another 20+ DK point game, playing catch up, as 13.5 point underdog vs The Pats)
RB: James Conner (if active), Dalvin Cook (in this win or go home matchup vs The Bears, Cook should play close to all the snaps. Obviously, the matchup is awful, but Cook could salvage a decent day, off volume), and Sony Michel. (Michel is averaging 18.5 DK PPG as a home favorite and The Jets are 25th in rush DVOA)
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster (The Bengals are 27th in DVOA vs #2 WRs), Mike Evans (Evans has seen a 26.03% target share in their last two games and The Falcons are 27th in DVOA vs #1 WRs), Alshon Jeffrey, Jordy Nelson (Nelson has garnered a 28.13% target share in their last four games and The Raiders should be airing it out, as a 14.5 point underdog vs The Chiefs, who are allowing the 5th most FPPG to WRs since Week 10), and Kendrick Bourne. (will start with Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin both expected to be out. George Kittle is going to see the most volume, but Bourne should receive 5+ targets, in this plus spot, with The Rams ranking 25th in DVOA vs #1 WRs)
TE: George Kittle. (he needs 100 yards to break the single season record for receiving yards by TE. That narrative alone should lead to big volume, especially with Pettis, and Goodwin both out. Even in a tough spot vs The 4th best defense against TE, The Rams, Kittle should reach his goal)
D: Texans, Saints, and Giants. (The Giants are only $2,100 at home, playing for pride, against The Cowboys, who are expected to rest their key players, hence their low implied team total of 17.75 points)