Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and below are my favorite values for Week 2. Be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 2 sleeper picks, that will be released later on in the week. @Hunta512.
QB: Patrick Mahomes: (6,100)
I have been a big fan of Mahomes this summer, targeting him in season long drafts, but I, for one, did not expect that kind of Week 1 performance vs a Chargers’ defense that was very strong last season. (7th in DVOA and allowed the 4th least fantasy points to QBs) In the 38-28 road win, he threw for 256 yards and four TDs, while also chipping in with five rushes for 21 yards, helping him to be the 4th highest rated QB of the week. (28.34 DK points) The second year QB out of Texas Tech looked extremely confident and comfortable in only his second career start. His great arm is exactly what WR Tyreek Hill (45.3 DK points) and this Andy Reid offense has been missing the last few seasons.
After this excellent victory, he and The Chiefs now take on The Steelers in Week 2. This Steelers defense was just exposed by another dual threat QB this past Sunday, in Tyrod Taylor, for 24.58 DK points, which included 8/77/1 on the ground. Not only that, but starting CB Joe Haden is already dealing with a hamstring injury (questionable) and this defense should be ripe for the picking again. The Chiefs currently have an implied team total of 23.75 points and this game has the highest O/U game total of Week 2, at 52.5 points. Coming in with tons of confidence, Mahomes should crush value at this price, which is only a $100 increase from last week. I recommend attacking Mahomes now, as his salary is never going to be this low again this season.
RB: James Conner: (6,700)
As of Wednesday, Le’Veon Bell has yet to report to The Steelers and the team is “all-in with James Conner in the Week 2 gameplan” according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN. In his NFL debut, Conner fully took over Bell’s role in Week 1, touching the ball a whopping 36 times and playing 91.6% of the snaps in the OT tie to The Browns. (was the only Steelers’ RB to touch the ball) He was excellent in the role, producing 31/135/2 rushing and 5/27 through the air. (38.2 DK points) Now, with no signs of Bell playing this Sunday, Conner will once again be the featured back in this offense. HC Mike Tomlin isn’t scared to give his main back a ton of work and Conner should see at least 20 touches in The Steelers’ home opener vs The Chiefs.
As I said above, this game is expected to be the highest scoring of the week and the matchup is also in his favor, with The Chiefs giving up 30.6 DK points to Melvin Gordon this past Sunday. (2nd most fantasy points allowed to RBs in Week 1) To put a cherry on top, this Steelers’ offensive line has the third biggest advantage over their opponent this week. (via PFF) Try not to over think this one and lock Conner in your lineups for the second straight week.
WR: Antonio Brown: (8,800)
If you haven’t caught on already, I am making it a priority to stack this Steelers Chiefs game. It should be very high scoring and I am expecting this Steelers’ offense to play better at home, where they scored 7.3 more PPG a year ago. In Week 1, Brown had a quiet, but productive game, converting nine of 16 targets to 93 yards and a TD vs The Browns. (24.3 DK points) This Browns’ secondary looked much improved and they now rank 9th in pass DVOA after this game. The Chiefs secondary that Brown will face this weekend looks to be a much weaker unit, ranking 29th in pass DVOA.
Chargers #1 WR Keenan Allen recorded a line of 8/108/1 vs them on Sunday for 27.8 DK points. No disrespect to Allen, but Brown is a far better player and I am expecting an even better score from AB at home, where he scored 6.31 more DK PPG last season. The Steelers have the second highest implied team total of the week (28.25 points) and in the 22 home games Brown has played in that Pittsburgh has seen a team total of at least 25 points, he is averaging 30.23 DK PPG. Without question, Brown is the clear cut #1 WR option for Week 2, that presents extreme safety and upside.
TE: George Kittle: (3,800)
In the loss to The Vikings on Sunday, Kittle led this Niners’ offense with nine targets. Even in this extremely tough matchup for TEs (2nd in DVOA vs TEs in 2017), the former Iowa Hawkeye caught five of those nine targets for 90 yards. (14 DK points) He played on 77% of the snaps compared to back up TE Garrett Celek who only saw 34.8%. This was a very positive sign that they are going all in with Kittle as their main TE this season. Last year, he and Celek essentially split the TE duties, with Kittle averaging 56.8% of the snaps and Celek averaging 50.9%. The very athletic TE (6’4”, 250 lbs., 4.52 speed, via PFF) was mostly used down the middle, seeing seven of his targets in this section of the field, but he also lined up on the outside three times and saw two targets over 20 yards. This already matches the amount of times he was targeted on passes over 20 yards last season and if he was able to haul in one of these long balls from last Sunday, he could have easily challenged Rob Gronkowski for #1 TE score of the week.
Now, following QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s first ever career loss, this Niners team will be looking to bounce back at home this Sunday vs the 0-1 Lions. This Detroit team looked horrendous on both sides of the ball on Monday night, losing 17-48 to rookie QB Sam Darnold and The Jets. Their defense looked extremely lazy, missing a bunch of tackles, and after Week 1, they are the 29th ranked defense in team DVOA, while also ranking 25th in DVOA against TEs. I get that one week is a very small sample, but last season, they also ranked 28th in team DVOA and 26th in DVOA vs TEs. As you can see, this matchup vs The Lions is worlds better than his Week 1 matchup vs The Vikings. The Niners have an implied team total of 27 points (4th highest of the week) and with 5-10 targets, Kittle should have no issues getting us at least three times value at his current price. If the deep targets continue, his ceiling is actually rather high and he would receive an even further boost if WR Marquise Goodwin was forced to sit out. (day to day, deep thigh bruise)
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (25.2 DK PPG at home in 2017), Drew Brees, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
RB: Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman (only if Devonta Freeman is out. He is dealing with a knee injury and hasn’t practiced this week, as of Thursday), and James White (would be a very strong value if Rex Burkhead was unable to play. Burkhead missed practice on Wednesday with a concussion and Jeremy Hill is officially done for the year with a torn ACL. Even if rookie Sony Michel suited up, you have to think HC Bill Belichick would mostly rely on White, if Burkhead is unable to go. Also, The Jags have arguably the best CB duo in the league, which could force Tom Brady to check the ball down to White more so than usual)
WR: Julio Jones (highest advantage for a WR this week, via PFF), Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, Chris Godwin (only if Desean Jackson is out), Kenny Golladay, and Randall Cobb/Geronimo Allison (Assuming he plays, Davante Adams should see the most of top CB Xavier Rhodes. Aaron Rodgers should look elsewhere, bringing more targets to Cobb and Allison)
TE: Jack Doyle and Jared Cook. (If you want to fit Kamara or Gurley with Brown and Conner in the same lineup for cash games, you have to find some cheap viable plays to fill out your roster. Kittle, Doyle, and Cook, in that order, are all underpriced for their roles, and I don’t mind using two of them in the same lineup)
D: Rams, Chargers, Broncos, and Redskins.