What’s up DFS world. Alex here, and below are my favorite DK values for the Sunday main slate. Be sure to be watching all the news outlets up until kickoff and to check out my Week 3 sleeper picks, that will be posted later on in the week. @Hunta512.
QB: Patrick Mahomes: (7,000)
Mahomes is no longer a secret in anyway, but no matter how high his ownership is (17-20% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), I simply can’t resist the upside he presents. Through only two games of work, Mahomes is averaging 35.1 DK PPG. He has thrown ten TD passes and no picks in only 55 total attempts. If you do the math, this is an insane 1.3 DK points per throw. Plus, he is averaging five carries and 19.5 yards a game. He is the perfect match with the offensive mind of Andy Reid, and until we see how WR Josh Gordon gels with Tom Brady and The Patriots, The Chiefs are the most dangerous offense in The NFL. They currently have an implied team total of 31.25 points, which is easily the highest team total we have seen this season. (has moved up a whole point since the opening lines)
Furthermore, this matchup vs The Niners has the highest O/U game total of the season (56 points) and their defense ranks 22nd in pass DVOA. (8th most fantasy points to QBs) To put the icing on the cake, this is The Chiefs first home game of the season. Arrowhead field is going to be electric and we should see another 30+ DK point game from Mahomes. I usually don’t like paying up at QB, but I think we need to keep riding the Mahomes train, until further notice.
RB: Corey Clement: (4,300)
Both Eagles’ RBs, Jay Ajayi (back) and Darren Sproles (hamstring) are questionable to play this Sunday, and it seems very likely at least one of them, if not both, sit out this matchup vs The Colts. On Tuesday, OC Mike Groh said there was a “good chance” Ajayi wouldn’t play in this game. Both players didn’t practice on Wednesday and HC Doug Pederson said Sproles’ injury was “worse” and that Ajayi is “day to day”. From these comments, it seems Sproles is definitely out and that Ajayi has a small chance of playing. In Week 2, Sproles missed the game vs The Bucs and Ajayi was in and out with the back injury (only 28% of the snaps), pushing Clement to be The Eagles’ main ball carrier. In 42% of the snaps, he generated 6/30/1 on the ground, while also catching 5/6 passes for 55 yards. (19.5 DK points) For the season, he is now averaging an effective 1.4 DK points per touch.
Even in the scenario that a beat up Ajayi played, I think Clement would still lead this backfield in touches. I am expecting at least ten touches for the second year back, in this solid matchup, as The Colts have given up the sixth most fantasy points to RBs in 2018. (24th in DVOA) The game flow should also be in his favor, with The Eagles currently sitting as seven point home favorites. Finally, this offense is seeing a big upgrade this week, with the return of QB Carson Wentz. If Ajayi sits, Clement is an excellent value that can be used in all formats and even if the veteran plays, I think Clement should still be considered in GPPs, with the likelihood that he is the main back again.
WR: Julio Jones: (7,900)
Jones is in the perfect spot this weekend. He will be at home taking on The Saints, who have been dreadful at defending the pass so far this season. Saints’ second year CB Marshon Lattimore hasn’t looked like the same player from a year ago and this secondary has allowed the most fantasy points to WRs, by nearly five points a game. Through two games, they rank 31st in pass DVOA and 30th in DVOA vs #1 WRs. Mike Evans dropped 30.7 DK points on them in Week 1 and the inexperienced rookie in Antonio Callaway, (started for Josh Gordon) scored 17.8 DK points this past Sunday. Even though he has yet to find the end zone, Jones is still averaging 21.2 DK PPG and 14 targets a game. The TDs are inevitably coming soon and I think this is the week we see him break off a long one for a score.
This game should be a shootout (53 O/U game total, second highest of the week, Falcons 28 point implied team total) and the last time these two clubs met, Jones produced 24.9 DK points in The Superdome. In the eight previous home games The Falcons have seen a total over 50 points, Jones is averaging 21.7 DK PPG. His price was cut $500 , down to $7,900, and this is only sixth time he has been under $8,000 on DraftKings in his last 55 games. Jones is the best value at his position and needs to be utilized in cash games and GPPs.
TE: Travis Kelce: (6,700)
Last week, Mahomes was my most used QB, but I made the mistake of not pairing him with Kelce. I shouldn’t have let his quiet Week 1 performance (1.6 DK points) overshadow the potential upside he has with Mahomes under center. We saw this upside in Week 2 vs The Steelers, with Kelce hauling in seven of ten targets for 109 yards and two TDs. (32.9 DK points) This QB-TE combo was one of the keys to taking down a GPP like The Millionaire Maker, and not only is Mahomes in an awesome situation to shine again (above), but Kelce will be facing a Niners defense that ranks dead last in DVOA vs TEs. They have surrendered a score to a TE in each of their first two games and no offense to them, but Vikings’ TE Kyle Rudolph and especially Lions’ TE Michael Roberts, are not even close to the pass catchers or redzone threat that Kelce is.
He has thrived in potential shootouts like this throughout his career. In the last four games The Chiefs have competed in with a game total of 50 points or more, he is averaging a line of 7.25/105.75/1.0, which results in 26.1 DK PPG. In this TE friendly matchup, Kelce has by far the highest ceiling for any TE in the main slate and stacking him with Mahomes is my preferred way of getting exposure to this scorching hot Kanas City offense.
QB: Matt Ryan and Cam Newton.
RB: Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffery, Kareem Hunt, Tevin Coleman, and Gio Bernard. (assuming he is fully healthy. He was limited on Wednesday with a knee injury. In the last game without Mixon, Bernard scored 32.8 DK points)
WR: Michael Thomas, Deandre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson (first time on the main slate. He is averaging 14.2 DK PPG on 10.5 TPG), Nelson Agholor (Alshon Jeffery is expected to miss another week, which keeps Agholor as the #1 option. (18.25 DK PGG) He has 10 and 12 targets through two games and should continue to see double digit targets. Oh, and he is getting Wentz back, which will help the offense as a whole), Robert Woods (a dramatic $800 price drop from last week. He has seen nine targets in each of these two first games and The Chargers ranks 31st in DVOA vs #1WRs), and Tyler Boyd (is playing 81% of the snaps and is coming off a 6/91/1 performance vs The Ravens. This week he goes against The Panthers who rank 30th in DVOA vs #2 WRs. He is one of the better pure punts of the slate at $3,700)
TE: Jared Cook, Jack Doyle, and Austin Hooper.
D: Vikings ($4,300 is a high price to pay, but The Bills are presenting a season low implied team total of 12.3 points. A shutout is very possible for The Vikings and if you can, I would get them in your cash game lineup), Jags (better if Mariota is out again), Bears (I wish they were at home, but The Bears have been a dominant unit with Kahill Mack, averaging 15.5 DK PPG, and The Cardinals have been putrid on offense, hence their 16.3 point implied team total), and Broncos.